CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

I'd be very happy if I got an inch of rain out of this coming storm front,ground is drying out here once again...

Good afternoon.  Work day is done early.

East coast seabreeze passed to my west and is on a collision course with the west coast seabreeze and outflow boundaries.  Could be quite a bump in storm coverage/intensity to my west in the next hour or two then they slide east.  Fingers crossed.

Good Tuesday Morning folks!!..my sprinklers ON this morning, just in case this this coming storm system is a dud rainwise for me..but I am noticing the concern for the possibility of severe winds etc next few days..think i'll take in things outside that can blow around to be on the safe side....well Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
457 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today-Wednesday)...
Some upper shortwave energy will move over the area later
this afternoon and help to enhance thunderstorm activity for
this afternoon and evening across the area. Additional upper
energy moving through the base of the trough will pass over
the state for Wednesday and allow for some strong to
possibly severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main
hazard with the storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. Heavy rains with the storms will also be
possible.

well NWS Tampa is expecting 2-3 inches of rain thru Thursday..we'll see if this verifies..in reading all the discussions..excessive Lightning keeps coming up,along with high winds..stay alert and safe thru this..seems to be a strong front ok..and with our 80-90 degree temps we will get that daytime heating huh..hopefully no tornado's.

Jenny heed the local warnings and stay safe up there till this bad front passes ok...good luck up there.

Looks like Wednesday could be My storm day as that line of storms passes over tampa bay..lets watch and see how fast or slow it moves and I just hope no tornado's or real bad winds with it...and if Nam proves true, the line will come IN from the gulf here,being pushed eastward...have to watch out for any waterspouts coming ashore etc....interesting couple of days coming folks..heed your local warnings for your area and stay safe out there...sure would be great if it turns out to be a good rain event for those who really need the rain.

LargoFL wrote:Looks like Wednesday could be My storm day as that line of storms passes over tampa bay..lets watch and see how fast or slow it moves and I just hope no tornado's or real bad winds with it...and if Nam proves true, the line will come IN from the gulf here,being pushed eastward...have to watch out for any waterspouts coming ashore etc....interesting couple of days coming folks..heed your local warnings for your area and stay safe out there...sure would be great if it turns out to be a good rain event for those who really need the rain.

Morning All,
I had .08 in the bucket late last night. That gives me 2.06 for the month.
Looks like we could have some wild weather wed. night early thurs. morning.
Looking forward to the 2 to 3 inches of rain. Like Largo says NO TORNADOS!!!!!
Have a great day!
John Z-hills

Good morning all. Just had a brief (and I mean brief) downpour at work in Cedar Key. Looking at the current radar I hope this activity builds in the Gulf because at the moment it looks like the energy is moving northward into AL and GA. Hopefully a nice large area of moderate rain hits the entire peninsula and rains all day and night.

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Looks like Wednesday could be My storm day as that line of storms passes over tampa bay..lets watch and see how fast or slow it moves and I just hope no tornado's or real bad winds with it...and if Nam proves true, the line will come IN from the gulf here,being pushed eastward...have to watch out for any waterspouts coming ashore etc....interesting couple of days coming folks..heed your local warnings for your area and stay safe out there...sure would be great if it turns out to be a good rain event for those who really need the rain.

Morning All,
I had .08 in the bucket late last night. That gives me 2.06 for the month.
Looks like we could have some wild weather wed. night early thurs. morning.
Looking forward to the 2 to 3 inches of rain. Like Largo says NO TORNADOS!!!!!
Have a great day!
John Z-hills

good Morning John,yes could be some wild weather coming is right...stay alert and safe up there ok.

waterdipper wrote:Good morning all. Just had a brief (and I mean brief) downpour at work in Cedar Key. Looking at the current radar I hope this activity builds in the Gulf because at the moment it looks like the energy is moving northward into AL and GA. Hopefully a nice large area of moderate rain hits the entire peninsula and rains all day and night.

Good Morning WD,yeah I'm unsure what to expect today..solid overcast here and moisture clouds all streaming sort of northward here..stay alert and safe ok

Aug..you will probably get the bad line of storms first, let us know how it is once it gets to you ok..stay safe and good luck up there.

Guess its going to be like this till this front goes away.............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
834 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Coffee County in southeastern Alabama...
Northwestern Geneva County in southeastern Alabama...

* Until 915 AM CDT

* At 834 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles south of Opp, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Elba around 905 AM CDT.
New Brockton around 915 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Alberton, Richburg, Perry Store, Carl Folsom A/p, County Line,
Lucile, Rhoades, Ino, Turner Crossroads and Central City.

it looks like there may BE a few tornado's,stay alert today northern florida and panhandle folks

NWS Jacksonville..............Tue May 23 2017

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected in showers/thunderstorms
across portions of southeast Georgia today. Scattered to numerous
showers/storms in northeast Florida this afternoon will become
more widespread tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in Southeast
Georgia this afternoon...and a marginal risk of severe storms in
northeast Florida this afternoon. Damaging winds and localized
flooding will be the main threats...however...Isolated Tornadoes
and large hail will also be possible.

Widespread heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of
northeast Florida tonight...particularly over the Suwannee Valley
Region.

one tv met says tampa bay's best chance for severe weather should be late Wednesday night early Thursday morning..we'll see what happens.

ok I'm going to back off and hope you folks tell us how it is in the storm ok

Morning. Nothing to report here. The heavier rains are forecast from midnight into tomorrow night for my area.

Yesterday's storms did blow up along the seabreeze/outflow collision but just to my north by a few miles. A fairly widespread 1-2" fell. I had .04" which was just enough to temporarily wet the pavement.

Good afternoon. Nothing going on here except heat and humidity.

How does is look for my area Largo?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon. Nothing going on here except heat and humidity.

How does is look for my area Largo?

your in the marginal zone for possible severe storms Billsfan..

real windy here but still no rain..this storm is really throwing off tornado's up north..hope it weakens before it gets down here..hope Gome and Jenny are ok.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
northern Florida
southeastern Georgia
central and southern South Carolina
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

I guess for myself, i'd better take this coming storm front a lil more seriously..sure hope it weakens as it moves downstate...NWS etc isn't so sure it will..so far anyway.

NWS Tampa....around 2 30pm.....(clipped).....At the present time guidance suggests rain chances will increase
significantly across the Nature Coast tonight, with the increasing
rain chances then spreading south to the Tampa Bay area toward
sunrise, and then across the remainder of the region during
Wednesday and Wednesday night. With regards to the severe threat it
now appears that the best chances for severe storms will be during
Wednesday afternoon and evening when a low level jet (45-50 knots)
and large scale forcing for ascent overspreads the region, however
some strong to severe storms will also be possible across the Nature
Coast tonight through Wednesday morning as the environment becomes
increasingly favorable for strong to severe storms. In addition to
the severe threat some locally heavy rainfall will be possible which
may produce some minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage
areas, as well as the ponding of water on roadways. Frequent deadly
lightning will also accompany the storms.

Aug you be extra careful up there ok..strong storm system it IS.....

Billsfan..NWS Miami.............Tue May 23 2017

...A few storms possible northeastern areas of South Florida today...
...Strong to even severe storms possible late Wednesday into Thursday...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon over the northeastern areas of South Florida.
The primary impacts will be lightning strikes and locally heavy
rainfall.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The rip current risk may increase for the Gulf Coast beaches ahead
of a cold front Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of South
Florida around Lake Okeechobee into Collier County in a Slight Risk
for severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday, and the remainder
of South Florida in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms as a
cold front approaches the region. At the present time, damaging winds
and hail looks to be the primary threats, although an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Interests in South Florida should
continue to monitor the forecast closely.

Isolated to thunderstorms are again possible across the region,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours, Friday through
Sunday.

Afternoon all......

I'm going to bust some Tampa area bubbles, but Aug's favorite map is the WPC 5 day precip.....  





Now I need to go see what the models are showing

HRRR valid only through tomorrow morning at 7am EDT.  Nice chances for those to the north....

it looks like the storms will still be by you thurs morning Billsfan...nam model

NAM total through Fri night at 7pm EDT....

sangria wrote:HRRR valid only through tomorrow morning at 7am EDT.  Nice chances for those to the north....

good luck with the storms tomorrow San.

And last but not least, the GFS through Fri night at 7pm EDT......

sangria wrote:NAM total through Fri night at 7pm EDT....

lol I'm in a dry spot again?...08??? lol I cannot win.

LargoFL wrote:
good luck with the storms tomorrow San.

I think those from the Nature Coast north and then into NE FL will see the brunt of it.

LargoFL wrote:
lol I'm in a dry spot again?...08??? lol I cannot win.

No No Largo, that's .8" not .08" for you!

The GFS is a little more generous to you though. :-)

sangria wrote:

LargoFL wrote:
good luck with the storms tomorrow San.

I think those from the Nature Coast north and then into NE FL will see the brunt of it.

We shall see.  NFL was supposed to see the brunt of it the day you had 3.55".  I had .03". Mother nature is interesting.  My personal goal for this system is 2.26" which would put me to 3" for this mini wet period.

Looking at the precip maps from the various models reminds me of measuring snow.  Take 3 measurements at different locations then average them out. In this case, average the modeled rainfall.

The big picture. System diving south currently in Iowa is the driver. Static loop which won't update.

StAugustineFL wrote:

We shall see.  NFL was supposed to see the brunt of it the day you had 3.55".  I had .03".  Mother nature is interesting.  My personal goal for this system is 2.26" which would put me to 3" for this mini wet period.

Did I have 3.55" one day???   Is that supposed to be on my SS?

Updated Day 1 Outlook...





SPC AC 231959

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0259 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

  Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
  GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...

  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
  TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

  ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
  TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO COASTAL NORTH
  CAROLINA...

  ...SUMMARY...
  Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over southeastern Georgia
  and the South Carolina coastal plain through the early evening.  A
  few tornadoes are possible along with damaging gusts.  Storms may
  also impact parts of south-central Texas into Texas Gulf coastal
  areas with a risk for severe wind and hail.

  ...Discussion...
  The only substantial changes to the convective outlook include:
  1) reducing severe probabilities across parts of AL-GA-SC to the
  west and northwest of a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms
  this afternoon.  A tornado or two will remain possible across the
  coastal plain of SC and GA through the early evening within a
  moist/sufficiently sheared environment.  
  2) Removing low-severe probabilities across parts of IL.  Weak
  instability and the lack of charge separation both indicate an
  appreciable risk for marginally severe storms will be low enough to
  not warrant a probability delineation.

  ..Smith.. 05/23/2017

  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

  ...Synopsis...
  Large-scale mid/upper troughing now encompasses much of the interior
  U.S. from the Rockies to the Appalachians, and its positively tilted
  axis may take on at least a bit more of a neutral tilt while
  pivoting from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley through the
  remainder of the period.  As it does, models indicate that an
  embedded lower/mid tropospheric cyclone will continue to gradually
  redevelop south southeastward from the upper into middle Mississippi
  Valley, perhaps supporting some consolidation and deepening of
  surface low pressure along an associated front near/north of the
  lower Ohio Valley by 12Z Tuesday.

  A preceding frontal zone has already reached much of the Gulf coast
  into south Atlantic coast region, with the boundary currently
  stalled to the lee of the southern Appalachians, ahead of a weak
  frontal wave now evolving across southern Alabama.  This wave
  accompanies one significant impulse embedded within the broader
  scale cyclonic mid/upper flow field, which is forecast to continue
  migrating east northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, through
  the southern Appalachians and southern/mid Atlantic coast region by
  12Z Tuesday.  

  Upstream, an additional significant perturbation or two appear
  likely to dig southeast of the south central high Plains before
  turning eastward across the western Gulf coast/lower Mississippi
  Valley region.  Associated with these features, a reinforcing cold
  front is already in the process of surging into central and
  southwest Texas, and is expected to advance through the lower Rio
  Grande Valley and Texas Gulf coast by the end of the period.

  Aided by destabilization beneath cold mid-level air, the environment
  along and ahead of the reinforcing front, from parts of the Upper
  Midwest into south Texas, probably will become conducive to
  scattered thunderstorm development today into tonight.  However,
  seasonably high moisture content air near/south of the lead frontal
  zone appears to provide the focus for the most numerous thunderstorm
  activity, across parts of the south Atlantic and eastern Gulf coast
  states into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

  ...Eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states...
  Lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates appear generally weak, but a
  seasonably moist environment (surface dew points near 70F)
  along/south of the stalled weak frontal zone across the region is
  expected to become at least modestly unstable with daytime heating.
  Coupled with enlarging low-level hodographs, associated with a 40-50
  kt southwesterly 850 mb jet evolving near the frontal wave, the
  environment near the northeastward advancing frontal wave appears
  conducive to strong/severe storms with a risk for tornadoes and
  potentially damaging surface gusts.  The primary threat area now
  appears to be evolving across southwestern Georgia, and is expected
  to shift east northeastward through portions of the piedmont and
  coastal plain of South Carolina by this evening.

  ...South central Texas into Texas Gulf coastal areas...
  Residual modest boundary layer moisture, coupled with steepening
  lapse rates associated with pre-frontal surface heating beneath
  relatively cold air aloft, probably will contribute to sufficient
  instability to support a risk for strong/severe storm development
  late this afternoon and evening.  Deep layer shear will be strong
  enough beneath 40-50+ kt (and strengthening) cyclonic northwesterly
  500 mb flow.  Aided by forcing for ascent associated with an initial
  perturbation approaching the region, one or two organizing storm
  clusters appears possible, generally focused near the initially slow
  moving/stalled frontal zone across mid (and perhaps portions of
  upper) Texas coastal areas by this evening.

  ...North central Illinois...
  There are at least some indications in latest model guidance that an
  area of enhanced forcing for ascent will become focused across the
  region by late afternoon, ahead of the digging mid-level cold core.
  Depending on the degree of insolation and destabilization that can
  take place by late afternoon, it may not be out of the question that
  the environment could become conducive of convection with at least
  marginal severe weather potential.

I must say san is the most intelligent 4-5 year old I may have seen in my lifetime! (avatar picture)

Updated 1-2 day QPF map.  This is from 8PM ET tonight through 8PM ET Thursday night.  Zulu time can be confusing but subtract 4 hours for ET this time of year (5 hours for those in CT).  0z Wed = 8PM ET/7PM CT Tues.

I'll take it. Anything is better than nothing!

StAugustineFL wrote:I must say san is the most intelligent 4-5 year old I may have seen in my lifetime!  (avatar picture)

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
FLC109-240930-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0141.170524T0858Z-170524T0930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
458 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern St. Johns County in northeastern Florida...

* Until 530 AM EDT

* At 457 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Saint
Augustine South, or near Saint Augustine, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, Saint Augustine Beach, Saint Augustine Shores,
Vilano Beach, Saint Augustine South, Butler Beach and Anastasia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

NWS Tampa..Wed May 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes. A slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible today with a passing cold front.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Strong and gusty winds in the 20 to 25 MPH range with higher gusts
will affect local area lakes. These strong and gusty winds will
create choppy and difficult boating conditions on area lakes.
Small boats will be especially prone to capsizing.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Conditions favorable for coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above
normal tides are expected to develop and continue through early
Thursday morning. Coastal residents should be alert for later
statements or warnings...and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
High surf will produce a high risk of rip currents along area
beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots will create hazardous boating
conditions for small craft operators.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for waterspout
development. Mariners should be on the lookout for waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A chance of thunderstorms are expected to continue through
Thursday morning. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Wynn

Good Wednesday Morning folks!!..no rain by me so far this early morning but NWS Tampa has me at 90% today so we'll see how this plays out...well today/tomorrow are storm days so stay alert and safe ok..hope no tornado's or real high winds.......................well Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!!