CLOSED 7-25 FLORIDA/ALABAMA Tropical season weather

StPeteFLwx wrote:Certainly a rain event here in St. Pete.  Up to 2.5" this morning, we'll easily get 3-4" before its through

yes st pete..we needed this rain for sure.

"WIND- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain possible- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph"

pfft.... less than an afternoon summer thunderstorm here in Florida!

Water Dipper,  Ruskin NWS doesn't really say much except that the front will lift up to the NE now.   I was really banking on some good precip when it lifted back up, but now I too am wondering.

Snipped from Ruskin AM discussion

On Tuesday the boundary will continue to linger across
the central peninsula with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing with best chances over the interior and
south.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Sunday)...
A stalled frontal boundary with a weak area of low pressure along
the boundary will be lifting out to the NE at the start of the
period as high pressure builds in across south Florida. The high
pressure ridge axis will gradually lift north across central and
then northern Florida for Thursday through Friday, and then remains
north of the area through Sunday. SW flow will turn to the SE and E
as the ridge axis builds in and then lifts north. Deep moisture
remains across the area through the period with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Temperatures will be in
the 70s to near 80 along the coast for lows, and in the upper 80s to
lower 90s for highs.

Looks like the center of the low will make landfall around Sarasota

its Just the CMC model 10 days out but...............................................................

Nice banding for a newbie! Be glad Emily was not another 200 miles West..

well I'm thankful for the rains ive been getting here..things outside were really drying out,my grass and plants are all smiling today LOL

gomexwx wrote:Nice banding for a newbie! Be glad Emily was not another 200 miles West..

I do agree with this, we could have been looking at a slightly different land falling storm had she had more time.

Landfall in about 5-6 hours and local met is saying Emily is developing an eye wall,for myself I think 5-6 hours over 85-90 degree' waters is something to think about,considering how Fast she went to TS huh...

On another note:

From Cat6 blog:

There’s never been a month as hot as this July has been in two widely dispersed U.S. cities: Miami, FL, and Salt Lake City, UT. Even though the month doesn’t officially end until midnight Monday night, it became clear days ago that July was on track to demolish the previous all-time monthly records in both cities. Records begin in 1874 in Salt Lake City and 1895 in Miami.

As of Saturday, July 29, the monthly average in Salt Lake City was 85.4°F. That’s more than a degree above the previous record for any month of 84.1°F (July 2013). The monthly average could drop by 0.1°F or 0.2°F once Sunday and Monday are factored in, but we can consider the record safely shattered.

In Miami, the average temperature through Saturday was 85.9°F, compared to the previous record for any month of 85.5°F (June 2010). The final reading is likely to drop by no more than 0.1°F. National Hurricane Center forecast Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) pointed out the sheer insufferability of the past month’s heat in Miami: “This July has had as many days with a low > 80°F as the last 5 Julys combined!”

How it looks now off the coast of Pinellas county here..........................

winds gusting to 31 mph down in st pete now...................................

probably going to be a lot of these warnings.................................................BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
947 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers...

Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Manatee River Near Myakka Head
Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
Horse Creek Near Arcadia

.Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Emily is causing rivers
to rise across the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

JRnOldsmar wrote:On another note:

From Cat6 blog:

There’s never been a month as hot as this July has been in two widely dispersed U.S. cities: Miami, FL, and Salt Lake City, UT. Even though the month doesn’t officially end until midnight Monday night, it became clear days ago that July was on track to demolish the previous all-time monthly records in both cities. Records begin in 1874 in Salt Lake City and 1895 in Miami.

As of Saturday, July 29, the monthly average in Salt Lake City was 85.4°F. That’s more than a degree above the previous record for any month of 84.1°F (July 2013). The monthly average could drop by 0.1°F or 0.2°F once Sunday and Monday are factored in, but we can consider the record safely shattered.

In Miami, the average temperature through Saturday was 85.9°F, compared to the previous record for any month of 85.5°F (June 2010). The final reading is likely to drop by no more than 0.1°F. National Hurricane Center forecast Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) pointed out the sheer insufferability of the past month’s heat in Miami: “This July has had as many days with a low > 80°F as the last 5 Julys combined!”

I usually don't pay much attention to their hyper DOOM blogs, but I will have to say that the heat has been unusually lengthy up here this year, starting in April.  Being so close to the coast, I am used to being a bit cooler during the day but with warmer overnight lows than inland of course.

From APRS  PWS down the road from me(ignore today's data, as their pws seems to have stopped recording around 6:15 this morning)........

Monthly highs/lows YTD

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
947 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers...

Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Manatee River Near Myakka Head
Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
Horse Creek Near Arcadia

.Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Emily is causing rivers
to rise across the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

LargoFL wrote:Landfall in about 5-6 hours and local met is saying Emily is developing an eye wall,for myself I think 5-6 hours over 85-90 degree' waters is something to think about,considering how Fast she went to TS huh...

I agree,this was a cloud last night and WHAMO! It's now a cloud with a name..Proximity to the Coast Line is your friend!

This GOES 16 is too large of a file to host a static loop, so this is the dreaded hotlinked real time loop and will update.  It will run through loading all of the frames slowly the first time and then the animation speed will pickup to something that doesn't make you  

Here,want me to say what has not been said?? Emily is being steered by the High over the Southeast U.S. with assistance from the Low off the Florida East Coast....IF this high ridges in you could see Emily pushed more Southward,maybe never cross Florida as it could loop..
..OK I said it!

sangria wrote:This GOES 16 is too large of a file to host a static loop, so this is the dreaded hotlinked real time loop and will update.  It will run through loading all of the frames slowly the first time and then the animation speed will pickup to something that doesn't make you  

Nice looking loop, San. The spin-up started cranking there at the (current) beginning.

Tornado Warning
FLC081-311515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0012.170731T1450Z-170731T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1050 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
West central Manatee County in west central Florida...

* Until 1115 AM EDT

* At 1049 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over West Bradenton, or near Palmetto, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Bradenton, Palmetto, West Bradenton, Ellenton, Memphis, South
Bradenton, Palma Sola and Cortez.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

SWFLWX are you around today..stay alert and safe down there ok........................................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

FLZ069-070-075-311545-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Mainland Monroe FL-
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for the development of funnel clouds
for southwestern Collier and northwestern Mainland Monroe Counties
Until 1145 AM EDT...

* At 1048 AM EDT...Doppler radar was tracking a Line of strong
thunderstorms with rotation, Capable of producing a funnel cloud
along a line extending from Royal Palm Hammock to 8 miles southwest
of Chokoloskee to 25 miles southwest of Wilderness Waterway...and
moving east at 20 mph.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Marco Island, Chokoloskee, Everglades City, Plantation Island,
Carnestown, Marco Island Airport, Copeland, Wilderness Waterway,
Royal Palm Hammock, Big Cypress National Preserve, Fakahatchee
Strand State Preserve, Port Of The Island, Goodland, Key Marco,
Cape Romano Aquatic Preserve, Jerome, Deep Lake and South Blocks
Golden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Residents should remain on the alert for additional statements and
possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

&&

OK folks..Into the Mouth of Tampa Bay she goes in a little while..st pete stay alert ok...................................Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

There has been little change in Emily`s overall structure as seen in
satellite and radar imagery over the past several hours. The
inner-core convection has waxed and waned while the outer convective
bands and rain shield on the south side of the small cyclone have
remained fairly steady. Velocity data from the NOAA Tampa Bay
WSR-88D Doppler radar has been indicating average velocities of
50-52 kt, with isolated bins of 55-62 kt, just south of the
circulation center between 4000-5000 ft altitude during the past few
hours. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent still
supports a surface wind speed estimate of 40 kt.

Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, after
which slow weakening is expected as Emily moves across the Florida
peninsula through tonight. After emerging off of the east-central
Florida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days
2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind
shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to
10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt,
which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening
until Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected
to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the
Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are
required for that area.

The initial motion estimate is 090/08 kt. Emily is approaching the
mouth of Tampa Bay, and landfall along the west-central Florida
coast should occur by early afternoon. After landfall, the latest
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Emily turning
east-northeastward tonight and moving across the central Florida
peninsula as a depression, and emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning. A mid-/upper-level trough currently
located over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward and
amplify along the southeastern U.S. coast by 24-36 h, accelerating
Emily to the northeast over the open Atlantic through the remainder
of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast track is just an update
and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
TVCN consensus model.

The primary threat with Emily is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across central an southern portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next day or two. However, a brief tornado will
be possible across central and southern Florida today, along with
isolated waterspouts over the coastal waters of southwestern
Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 27.6N 82.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Gomey, what's your temp and DP this morning? The Carolinas are enjoying a beautiful morning and some even dropped to the upper 50s for overnight lows.....what I wouldn't give!!!

I'm wondering..IF she goes into Tampa Bay..then turns NE...would she go Over Tampa itself?..........if that happens..with counter clockwise winds..her 45mph+ winds would come back over Pinellas county etc....not taking my eyes off her LOL

ok that's it for me

it's 85, 65% humidity and Dew point 70 degrees..Winds are NNE at 14 mph(fetch between Emily and The High) barometer 29.91 and steady

By looking at the Tampa radar it looks like Emily has or is currently landfalling south of Tampa Bay in Manatee county. I think the storm is over for the most part in Pinellas.

LargoFL wrote:I'm wondering..IF she goes into Tampa Bay..then turns NE...would she go Over Tampa itself?..........if that happens..with counter clockwise winds..her 45mph+ winds would come back over Pinellas county etc....not taking my eyes off her LOL

It could....Interesting Little storm!

Looks like the low is on land now.  Pressure at the nearest NOAA station - Port Manatee

I was just thinking it looked like she was making landfall.... it's really hard to tell on visible with the cloud tops.

Radar seems to indicate she has though....

Look at all of those beautiful temps the high pressure ushered in..... 11:15am EDT

You can see Emily is in a weakness between an ULL to the West ,High Pressure to the North and the Bermuda High...thinking is the low's on the frontal boundary off Florida's East coast will weaken the peripheral of the Bermuda High and Emily heads NE...

Looks like she has plenty of room off the east coast of FL and the western flank of the Bermuda high as small as she is.

sangria wrote:Looks like she has plenty of room off the east coast of FL and the western flank of the Bermuda high as small as she is.

Yep! and the only outlier I see that can change the forecast is a BIG IF..That "IF" being the High Ridging south fills in the frontal boundary(since High moves to fill LOW) and bridges with the bermuda high...that could cause a stall..

Looks like the dry air is trying, but not making much headway

Just saw this..first CMC model...Now also GFS...in about 8-10 days models are hinting at a hurricane heading this way...stay tuned lol

storms are circling back over this way...its not over .................

Billsfan..you ok down there...looks like really bad storms going over your area........

well breezy here,and the sky is semi coudy but the sun is trying to break thru at times..should be getting better as Emily moves away NE towards the atlantic........it looks like the front got pushed over Billsfan's area and extreme southern florida,whew..sure looks like ALOT of rain down there now...

We have such a good Emergency Preparedness department here (some big company in Tampa ).

Received at 1:15
... With Tropical Storm Emily approaching Florida and several areas, including Tampa Bay, expecting inclement weather, ...

Received at 1:47
Please be aware that ... Leadership and the EPC are actively monitoring Tropical Storm Emily, which is forecasted to provide some inclement weather conditions over the next few days in Florida, including the Tampa Bay area. ...

So glad they've provided such timely, accurate, and relevant warnings.  

LargoFL wrote:well breezy here,and the sky is semi coudy but the sun is trying to break thru at times..should be getting better as Emily moves away NE towards the atlantic........it looks like the front got pushed over Billsfan's area and extreme southern florida,whew..sure looks like ALOT of rain down there now...

We got one good downpour, but that's about it for my area. I just checked my gauge and it's at about 1/10. I would have thought a little more.

How are you guys doing over there?

Largo was reading my mind lol

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Largo was reading my mind lol

GLad your ok down there Billsfan..radar looked like you were getting real heavy rains....ok here just a few breezy hours this morning..no heavy rain or winds at all by me.

we lucked out big time..had that stayed out in the gulf a day or so more whew.

LargoFL wrote:we lucked out big time..had that stayed out in the gulf a day or so more whew.

Good afternoon. Just like real estate, location, location, location! I'm surprised they named that thing basically being attached to a stalled frontal boundary. I doubt few, if any, land areas had TS wind gusts much less 39 mph sustained. Probably breezier here under partly cloudy skies with a pressure gradient between the front to the south and high pressure to the north.