CLOSED 7-25 FLORIDA/ALABAMA Tropical season weather

TS Emily will be one for the record books.  Damage reports are coming in from west central FL (sarcasm).

St Aug. These things are funny, but karma' s a beotch. One shouldn't mock Mother Nature lol

StAugustineFL wrote:

LargoFL wrote:we lucked out big time..had that stayed out in the gulf a day or so more whew.

Good afternoon.  Just like real estate, location, location, location!  I'm surprised they named that thing basically being attached to a stalled frontal boundary. I doubt few, if any, land areas had TS wind gusts much less 39 mph sustained.   Probably breezier here under partly cloudy skies with a pressure gradient between the front to the south and high pressure to the north.  

I thought TS was stretching it a bit this morning. The pendulum may be swinging a little far on the over-cautious side. How may counties were put under Emergency Declaration?

StAugustineFL wrote:

LargoFL wrote:we lucked out big time..had that stayed out in the gulf a day or so more whew.

Good afternoon.  Just like real estate, location, location, location!  I'm surprised they named that thing basically being attached to a stalled frontal boundary. I doubt few, if any, land areas had TS wind gusts much less 39 mph sustained.   Probably breezier here under partly cloudy skies with a pressure gradient between the front to the south and high pressure to the north.  

Totally agree.... They adjusted with doppler radar estimated wind - in other words, it shouldn't have been named IMO

It had a name it lost it,but it is not over...I am not sure being so weak that it will feel the weakness..High pressure may squash it South then Southwest back over the Gulf...

I think now they are damned if they do, damned if they don't declare a SOE. Broward really messed up when Katrina clipped us as a weak hurricane. People were driving home in strong tropical force winds etc. We lost power for six days. We got little warning. I was an avid visitor at WU then, when it was good, and my husband's company and mine got off at noon that day. Gov Scott likely had to make the call just in case for disaster relief funds. What if Gomey' s scenario would come to fruition? Just a thought

NWS Tampa............Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy
rains... and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected each day. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...
and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Good Tuesday Morning Folks! ..well its August 1st already,whew the months just fly by huh...well looks like most of us go back to our normal summertime weather pattern today....well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy...have a great day everyone!

StAugustineFL wrote:

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
 I will take the rain as I only have 4.66 in the bucket for the month. Should be around 8.50 inches or so.
Anyways have a great weekend to All!!!!
John Z-hills

Good luck John.  Maybe come August 1st you can report your July totals doubled and you ended the month with over 9"!

July is the driest month of the wet season up here.  Monthly average is 4.84" I believe.  Then around 6.5" for August and 7.3" for September.

Morning all,
Well got some good rain over the weekend 1.28 sat, .45 sun and 1.15 Monday
That put in the bucket for the month at 7.46 A little under but lots better than it was.
Have a great day all!!
John Z-hills

sangria wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:

LargoFL wrote:we lucked out big time..had that stayed out in the gulf a day or so more whew.

Good afternoon.  Just like real estate, location, location, location!  I'm surprised they named that thing basically being attached to a stalled frontal boundary. I doubt few, if any, land areas had TS wind gusts much less 39 mph sustained.   Probably breezier here under partly cloudy skies with a pressure gradient between the front to the south and high pressure to the north.  

Totally agree.... They adjusted with doppler radar estimated wind - in other words, it shouldn't have been named IMO

AGREED!!

I think in naming the storm, they saw how fast it grew and deciding Not to take any chances, knowing full well people Would listen to warnings more IF a storm was named and classified..they named it...now...would they get blamed big time...had they NOT named it..and it grew into a strong storm and created a lot of damage...yes I think there may have even been lawsuits over it...so in naming the storm,they played the safe card and did the right thing..........remember not all Named storms..do damage.....the name only means the wind speeds and strength match whatever classification it matches..TS Emily,Hurricane Emily etc....now...when Emily came Into tampa bay and manatee county..there WERE 60mph winds recorded per NWS....so they did the right thing in naming it.

ok ok..perking the second pot of the Blog's COFFEE for you all..LOL...enjoy

one thing I regret with Emily coming here..she disturbed the rain line in the cool front ..here by me we were expecting heavy rains and all I got were some light rain for a  few minutes and mostly sprinkles thru the morning hours...looks like Emily took all the heavy rains southward.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I think now they are damned if they do, damned if they don't declare a SOE. Broward really messed up when Katrina clipped us as a weak hurricane. People were driving home in strong tropical force winds etc. We lost power for six days. We got little warning. I was an avid visitor at WU then, when it was good, and my husband's company and mine got off at noon that day. Gov Scott likely had to make the call just in case for disaster relief funds.  What if Gomey' s scenario would come to fruition? Just a thought

You are right, BillsFan, and the unanticipated nature of this was a contributor.

LargoFL wrote:one thing I regret with Emily coming here..she disturbed the rain line in the cool front  ..here by me we were expecting heavy rains and all I got were some light rain for a  few minutes and mostly sprinkles thru the morning hours...looks like Emily took all the heavy rains southward.

I'm with you, Largo. I was looking forward to several days of heavy rains.

LargoFL wrote:one thing I regret with Emily coming here..she disturbed the rain line in the cool front  ..here by me we were expecting heavy rains and all I got were some light rain for a  few minutes and mostly sprinkles thru the morning hours...looks like Emily took all the heavy rains southward.

You can definitely see from the CoCoRaHS map that the storm just missed you to the south

yes st pete..last minute it went to my south,did you get anything by your area from it rain wise?

well only rain I can see right now is down in southern florida,Good luck Billsfan and swflwx.

its funny in a way..yeah the storm turned out to be real weak,but it could have been the other way around..we all could be sitting here telling of tree's down on our roofs..maybe even roofs gone, cars smashed or maybe even injuries to us or loved ones...me..every time a storm comes in weak..im very thankful it didn't affect me or my home or loved ones....ive been very very lucky in the decades ive lived here..only one time I had storm damage to my house..the old timers here when I moved in..told me...oh don't worry about hurricanes etc..they always go somewhere else...LOL..in all my years here...that saying holds true LOL

I just looked up ..when was the last time Pinellas county took a direct hit from a tropical system....web told me...October 1921..the great tarpon springs cat-3 hurricane,,,,i guess we here can count our blessings they usually do...go somewhere else.

LargoFL wrote:yes st pete..last minute it went to my south,did you get anything by your area from it rain wise?

We did, from about 8-11 yesterday morning we were getting an inch an hour as the "feeder band" from the low was training right over us. A lot of street flooding. But it cleared out by noon, very nice now that the drier air has set in.

StPeteFLwx wrote:

LargoFL wrote:yes st pete..last minute it went to my south,did you get anything by your area from it rain wise?

We did, from about 8-11 yesterday morning we were getting an inch an hour as the "feeder band" from the low was training right over us.  A lot of street flooding.  But it cleared out by noon, very nice now that the drier air has set in.

wow congrats..i sure could have used that up here..well maybe next time

well lets keep a good eye on that tail end of the front out in the gulf..just a blob right now but...

Billsfan, are you getting any of this rain down there today at all?......................................................................'''

Howdy everyone!

I ended up with .34" out of the whole thing.  Now, it doesn't look like much will happen with the front lifting north....sigh.

I closed out the month of July with a disappointing 4.49"   Here's to hoping August is better!  

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan, are you getting any of this rain down there today at all?......................................................................'''

yes Largo... It poured a little while ago. I'll check the gauge when I get home.

We got a half inch of rain and it is still raining lightly.
There must have been some strong winds as I saw several tipped over garbage cans. My daughter said the wind woke her up.

sangria wrote:Howdy everyone!

I ended up with .34" out of the whole thing.  Now, it doesn't look like much will happen with the front lifting north....sigh.

I closed out the month of July with a disappointing 4.49"   Here's to hoping August is better!  

yes good luck San..hopefully August will be a wet month..we sure need it.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:We got a half inch of rain and it is still raining lightly.  
There must have been some strong winds as I saw several tipped over garbage cans.  My daughter said the wind woke her up.  

ok Billsfan..local met said the front is starting to lift NE now and along with it rain and showers spreading northward with it.

well almost 6pm and it looks like those showers out in the gulf are heading to the coast.................

yes it looks like some good showers coming in from the gulf next few hours..good luck folks.

WD........................................ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily, located over the Atlantic Ocean well to
the east of Florida.

1. A small, non-tropical area of low pressure centered about 240 miles
south of Pensacola, Florida, is producing disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Significant development of this system is not expected
due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to dry air. The low
is forecast to move northeastward over the Big Bend area of Florida
by early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

WD,..your area MAY get a lil more rain than the rest of us next couple of days.good Luck up there..

Good Wednesday Morning folks!! well rain chances somewhat better today for most of us,good luck everyone!...........well Blogs COFFEE is set to perk for when You get here..enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!!!

LargoFL wrote:WD,..your area MAY get a lil more rain than the rest of us next couple of days.good Luck up there..

It has been rocking and rolling so far this AM here. Over an inch in the rain gauge and constant thunder and lightning since early this morning. It appears we are getting some banding from the developing low in the Gulf. Looks like I will be in the heart of it a good chunk of the day. Suprisingly the winds is quite calm, but it is currently very dark out right now with that eerie greenish glow to it. The next "band" is coming onshore now. WPC 5-day QPF is calling for 2-3 inches, so we will see if they are correct.

The QPF is usually on target it seems. Good luck WD, I know you could use some rain.

Blue skies and quite warm already. They say maybe another chance of showers this afternoon. We shall see.
Have a good day all.

well here we had a great lil shower around 7am or so, soaked everything nicely for a few minutes, now we await whatever afternoon showers come.

Still getting some torrential down pours here off and on. Looks like another big rain event for the Nature Coast. Here is the latest from the NWS:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
943 am EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

..some very heavy rainfall possible from Bay area north
into the Nature Coast the remainder of today...

Update...
satellite imagery and surface observations show a weak area
of low pressure along a frontal trough west-southwest of
Cedar Key early this morning. 88d returns show a large
clusters of showers and storms along this boundary from
Cedar Key extending southwest over the Gulf waters for more
than 60nm, with one cluster of storms now pushing onshore
along the coast from Pasco County north to Levy. 12z morning
raob data shows a saturated airmass over the region with a
precipitable water of 2.09 inches. This abundant tropical moisture combined
with enhanced low level convergence and instability along
the frontal trough will support effective rainfall making
processes from the I-4 Corridor North the remainder of today
where bouts of torrential rains and embedded thunderstorms
will be possible.

The rather strong southwest flow in the 25 to 30 knot range
(via raob data) combined with the strong surface convergence
and enhance upper level divergence will support the
possibility of very high rainfall rates on the order of 2 to
3 inches per hour in some areas of the Nature Coast the
remainder of the morning and into the afternoon, especially
where the training of cells occur, with latest hi-res data
supporting this from Hernando County north to Levy where
some localized flooding will be possible.

Have already bump up pops into the categorical range and
have added locally heavy rain wording from the Tampa Bay
area north in the zones, with scattered to numerous showers
and storms and locally heavy rain possible further to the
south as the day continues. Considerable cloud cover should
hold temperature down some today with highs in the mid to
upper 80s expected from north to south. Ongoing forecast is
on track and no additional grid/zones changes planned at
this time.

&&

gee WD hope no flooding up there,sure must be a lot of runoff heading to the lakes and streams up there,,stay safe ok.

I'm hoping some of this migrates down to my area later today,we'll see how this plays out.

NWS Melbourne....... WED AUG 2 2017

.NOW...

...Showers and storms to become numerous/widespread NW of I-4
through early afternoon...

At 1045 AM...local doppler radars showed a large area of showers and
storms from the Nature Coast north of Tampa to near Zephyrhills and
The Villages...just west of northern Lake County. Through early
afternoon...this activity will spread across Lake County and western
sections of Volusia...Seminole and Orange Counties...possibly
reaching northwestern Osceola County as well.

Showers and storms should begin to develop and increase farther east
across the remainder of east central Florida from I-4 east to the
Volusia coast...and from Lakes Kissimmee and Okeechobee to the Space
and Treasure Coasts from mid to late afternoon.

The greatest coverage and heaviest rainfall is expected over and
adjacent to Lake County...where between one and two inches of rain
could fall in some locations.

Cloud to ground lighting strikes and water ponding from torrential
downpours remain the main storm threats today. A few wind gusts to
near or a little over 40 MPH will also be possible. Today`s activity
will move northeast at about 10 to 20 MPH.


&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/blog

$$

John if you stop by...be a lil extra careful driving today..stay safe up there,could be some water on roadways etc.

wow Just LOOK at all those storms going over the same area's all morning long whew..

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1012 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...

.UPDATE...
Have updated PoPs for trends this morning for ongoing showers and
embedded thunder southwest of I-75, and increased PoPs
northeastward as this area moves throughout the day. Main threat
will be for locally heavy rainfall as continued development and
higher PWATs advect into the area. Also lowered high temperatures
by a few degrees given the amount of cloud cover this morning.
Rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

&&

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0615
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 021255Z - 021800Z

SUMMARY...MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MAY POSE
FLOODING CONCERN. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLOODED ZONES
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 VISIBLE LOOP DEPICTS A CLOSED
SURFACE WAVE JUST WEST OF CEDAR KEY. WHILE ONSHORE STATIONS
DEPICT TYPICAL MORNING PRESSURE RISES...BOUYS OFFSHORE INDICATE
ONLY MINOR RISES OR NEAR STEADY CONDITIONS SUGGESTING EARLY
CONVECTIVE ROUND SUPPORTED FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW. AS
SUCH ORIENTATION OF EFFECTIVE TROPICAL WARM CONVEYOR ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SUPPORTING
INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN/ALONG THE COASTAL REGION. 12Z RAOBS IN JAX/TBW
ALSO SHOW NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES BELOW 5H WITHIN THE
CONVEYOR...MATCHING CIRA LAYERED PW TRENDS/MAGNITUDES TO SUPPORT
TPWS OVER 2.25". GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD PROCESSES RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 2.5"/HR ARE LIKELY WITH EXTREME RATES OVER 3-4"/HR
POSSIBLE.

GIVEN THE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WELL LOCATED
OFFSHORE (SBCAPES AT ABOVE 3500 J/KG)... RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OFF SHORE CITRUS/HERNANDO COUNTIES PER VISIBLE/10.3UM
IR SHOWING RAPID COOLING...WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER UPSTREAM ALONG
THE CONVEYOR TOWARD A SECONDARY DEVELOPING INFLECTION NEAR
27.9N86.1W. THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF FLOW A LIKELY TO
SUPPORT FAVORED ORIENTATION AND BACKBUILDING TO ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE
BOUTS OF THESE HIGHLY EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH THERE IS
POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ALONG CITRUS/HERNANDO COUNTIES TO HAVE 4-5"
TOTALS WITH ISOLATED THREAT OVER 6" IN THE NEXT 6HRS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE TRADITIONAL ABILITY OF THIS
AREA TO ABSORB THESE TYPES OF RATES AS FFG VALUES ARE ABOVE 3 TO
4" IN 1HR TO 3HR RESPECTFULLY...ESPECIALLY THE AREAS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY PER AHPS 7-14 DAY ANOMALY PLOTS. STILL THE
MAGNITUDE WARRANTS AT LEAST A POSSIBLE THREAT FOR FLOODING
CONDITIONS BY 18Z.

SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...CURRENT ORIENTATION TO THE NARROW WARM
CONVEYOR PLACES LIMITED CONCERN ACROSS AREAS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING FLOODING PER AHPS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
PERIPHERAL SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FOR MODEST MST CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE LIMITED IN THIS AREA (EVEN MORE
SO THAN FURTHER NORTH). CONCERN HERE IS RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THE CLOUD EDGE MAY ALLOW FOR CLEAR ENOUGH SKIES FOR
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. IF
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO STILL BE RELATIVELY EFFICIENT.

OF GREATER CONCERN...THE CLOUD EDGE MAY ALLOW FOR SW-NE ORIENTED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THAT IS ALIGNED WITH MEAN CLOUD
BEARING FLOW SUGGESTIVE OF TRAINING OF ANY CELLS THAT WOULD
DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ONLY CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE HERE AS THERE IS STILL MODERATE REDUCTION IN CONFIDENCE
ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT IF IT DOES THE THREAT FOR ENHANCED
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS MAY BE IMMEDIATE.

San's area might soon be getting some action also.................................

I wonder if this will be sinking a bit more southward thru this evening?.....................

Aug, has any of that rain reached your area today?