CLOSED 7-25 FLORIDA/ALABAMA Tropical season weather

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Levi's tracks for 99L..........................................................................

Those green models must have been updated by the kindergarten class. They are now known as the dot-to-dot models

LOL WD,i sure hope this storm stays far away from Florida

LargoFL wrote:well suns full out here and no rain at all by me, guess it all went northward..good luck up there ok

Hey Largo. It's looking like we could have some dinner-time storms.

JRnOldsmar wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well suns full out here and no rain at all by me, guess it all went northward..good luck up there ok

Hey Largo.  It's looking like we could have some dinner-time storms.

sure would be great if it happened, its been real warm here today whew.

here is todays long range model tracks for 99L..remember they will change in the days to come..

oh yeah JR..we just might get some of these storms here in awhile.....

well ive posted enough for one day LOL....good night folks..

JRnOldsmar wrote:

waterdipper wrote:Coming down in buckets here again. The front re-fired offshore and is training right into Dixie and Levy counties. This is really becoming a significant rain event. I just picked up another 2 inches in the last half hour, and it appears it is going to continue for some time. Hope this front moves out tomorrow as we could use some drying.

Be safe up there, WD.

Head's up, Aug.  WD's is sending this up to you.

I just hope it makes it down this far.  TWC doesn't seem to think so.

I need more of an ENE heading but they are moving NE. Looks like the slug of moderate rain will pass to my north although I may get clipped by the southern edge. Had some good thunderstorms in the area earlier but those passed a good 15 miles south. Did get some steady, light rain with a few rumbles of thunder for a good hour. Totaled out to .18"

I would be disappointed if the mini-blob extending from Palatka southwestward skirted just south leaving me in the hole between it and the larger area of steady rain. I'll know in an hour.

StAugustineFL wrote:I would be disappointed if the mini-blob extending from Palatka southwestward skirted just south leaving me in the hole between it and the larger area of steady rain.  I'll know in an hour.

Look out, Aug. That gap is still coming right for you!!!

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan how did you make out with Cat-3 Wilma in 2005?...a lot of damage down there??

Yes, Largo... widespread damage down here. Personally we lost 2/3 of our roof, had flooding, ruined walls and ceilings, mold... We ended up moving out of our house for 8 weeks for it to be repaired. Almost a $60,000 claim with Citizens Insurance.
People flying into the airport said nearly every house in some neighborhoods had "blue roofs" (FEMA tarps).... Everyone had major tree damage. The city of Fort Lauderdale and surrounding areas were without running water for three days due to major damage to the water system. No electricity for 14-21 days for most people.
Thank goodness a cold front arrived simultaneously as Wilma did (making for an exceptionally strong backside of the storm)... so there was no need for AC or anything. I cannot imagine going thru no power for over two weeks in August. (although we did go 6 days without with Katrina)

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan how did you make out with Cat-3 Wilma in 2005?...a lot of damage down there??

Yes, Largo... widespread damage down here. Personally we lost 2/3 of our roof, had flooding, ruined walls and ceilings, mold... We ended up moving out of our house for 8 weeks for it to be repaired. Almost a $60,000 claim with Citizens Insurance.  
People flying into the airport said nearly every house in some neighborhoods had "blue roofs" (FEMA tarps).... Everyone had major tree damage.  The city of Fort Lauderdale and surrounding areas were without running water for three days due to major damage to the water system.  No electricity for 14-21 days for most people.  
Thank goodness a cold front arrived simultaneously as Wilma did (making for an exceptionally strong backside of the storm)... so there was no need for AC or anything. I cannot imagine going thru no power for over two weeks in August.   (although we did go 6 days without with Katrina)

gee I cannot think of how horrible it must have been for you folks down there..whew..thanks for letting us know how it was there Billsfan..

here is the overnight GFS model run for 99L..remember..track can change run to run..

no one can believe these model tracks 10 days or so out in time BUT...its a good idea for me to go over my storm preps etc..who knows where the storm will go or even IF it will survive the trek across the ocean but..for myself..i'll be ready,just in case.

UP to 80% chance now......................................ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea and by early
next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves
westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could
produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven

well I got a brief shower last evening,looks like a dry day for us today huh...

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!!!...well hopefully our weather goes back to normal with the possible afternoon shower like always..and yes, all eyes are watching that storm and where it will be headed next 10 days or so..way too early to believe tracks right now...so be ready Just in case like we all should be anyway..it IS our tropical season huh...lol...well our FRIDAY Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!

well over in doc's Blog..they are mentioning that 99L could be a very strong Hurricane,but then again they are looking at the gfs's morning run and that..could change with the next run huh?..but for myself..im going to keep a very close watch on 99L..especially once its formed and named..and I'm waiting to see WHERE it is and how strong.. next thurs-friday,that should give us good idea what this storm is going to do....regardless of where its going...we all...should keep a close eye on it

kinda funny...this early out in time...and GFS already is saying cat-4 or 5 wow

Sorry guys, I think I have been hoarding all the rain the last few weeks, but it had been really dry here up until 2 weeks ago. I got another 3.00" from the storms yesterday afternoon. That puts me at 11.75" since July 23. Hopefully this frontal trough clears out today and the sun comes out as I could use some drying now. Anyway, hope the early models are wrong and if a storm does build in the Atlantic that it recurves harmlessly out to sea and affects no one.

LargoFL wrote:well I got a brief shower last evening,looks like a dry day for us today huh...

The NWS mets need to re-think that 30% today for Chiefland. The frontal trough has not moved out yet (even though they said it would move north of the area yesterday) and we have been having a light rain all morning. Looking at the radar there is more in the Gulf headed this way. Doesn't look heavy like the last couple of days, but it will keep everything wet and not let the area dry out.

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well I got a brief shower last evening,looks like a dry day for us today huh...

The NWS mets need to re-think that 30% today for Chiefland. The frontal trough has not moved out yet (even though they said it would move north of the area yesterday) and we have been having a light rain all morning. Looking at the radar there is more in the Gulf headed this way. Doesn't look heavy like the last couple of days, but it will keep everything wet and not let the area dry out.

good morning WD, its good you got some Good rainfall amounts..hope you get a couple of days of sun now for the weekend!

Billsfan and east coast Florida...stay tuned to your local forecasts towards the end of next week ok.....

well we must remember Nothing has formed and been Named yet, when its named then we really start to follow it huh

This is one storm I would be Very Happy to see go POOF!!..we don't need this here huh....

well nothing going on around my area so far..just HOT and very humid.....BBL

Hi All,
Got a frog strangler last night. 1.37 in the bucket in 35 mins. puts 1.97 in the bucket for the month of August so far. Hope all have a great weekend!!!!
John Z-hills

LargoFL wrote:This is one storm I would be Very Happy to see go POOF!!..we don't need this here huh....

I'm with you Largo. go POOF already.

severstorm wrote:Hi All,
 Got a frog strangler last night. 1.37 in the bucket in 35 mins. puts 1.97 in the bucket for the month of August so far. Hope all have a great weekend!!!!
John Z-hills

glad you got some good rain up there john..yes have a great weekend also!!

well lets see what 99L is ..oh maybe Tues/wens..hopefully it stays weak and no cat-3-4..which I guess IS possible....right now just something to watch and wait..

I do notice some tracks now take this into the gulf...we need to watch this closely huh...

well as of today, they think 99L will develop over the coming days,might get named by mon-tues..and where it goes is anyone's guess right now...I guess we in Florida should watch it closely and perhaps..go over your plans and any preps you might want to go over huh..for myself I'm waiting to see where and what it is and perhaps where its headed before I do anything..unless this speeds up which I don't see happening right now..but..we never know huh...I sure hope this goes POOF and comes nowhere near Florida.

as for 90L..i don't see that affecting us in Florida, but we watch it also..just in case....remember..its NOT Nice..to fool with Mother Nature LOL

I should go out tomorrow and buy a couple more battery operated lanterns in case of any power loss..i have one but..with a hurricane..the power outages could last for days huh.

it sure would be wonderful to come in here Monday and see 99L died out..or hooked northward up into the atlantic and away from us...lets see how this plays out.

well enjoy the weekend folks...right now its so hot and humid whew..sure would be nice to get a shower come over my area and cool it down some...

Good afternoon. It's the time of year for the tropics to spring to life. I'm not going to fret anytime soon over an invest 3000 miles away but we shall see how it evolves. 12z Euro doesn't think much but does develop 90L in the short term and sends it to Mexico.

Looks like an overall dry period coming up for peninsular FL considering the time of year. It'll depend on how bullish the Bermuda High decides to get.

NWS Tampa...............Sat Aug 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening. Storms
that develop will be capable of producing strong gusty winds...
locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.
Remember...if you can hear thunder you are close enough to the
storm to be struck by lightning and should seek shelter in a
building or vehicle with a metal roof.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Minor river flooding will continue into mid week near the Myakka
River State Park. Residents living in the area should remain
aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should
flooding be observed.

Good Early Saturday Morning folks!!...well nws is saying a 20% CHANCE for those regular maybe afternoon showers later today.......and tropic's we'll just have to wait mid week and see what happens..nothing has formed yet and 99L still at 80% chance of developing..way too early yet to believe anything.....well Blogs COFFEE is set to perk for when you get here..enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!

Good morning everyone!

Looks like it's going to be a hot dry day here, so guess I'll punish myself and try to clean out some of the damned nutgrass in the garden beds today. I'm gonna need lots of cervezas!!!

sangria wrote:Good morning everyone!

Looks like it's going to be a hot dry day here, so guess I'll punish myself and try to clean out some of the damned nutgrass in the garden beds today.  I'm gonna need lots of cervezas!!!

The Google car made a pass through Port Richey a few minutes ago.

Morning. Through the first 4 days of August it has rained each day but totals have been light. .57". Had a nice outflow boundary move through around 8:30 yesterday evening. Winds were gusting 30-40 mph for a few minutes. Storms mainly went south and east. It was pleasant sitting outdoors feeling the breeze and watching the dark skies. Snagged this pic as I was watching. Nice contrast between the relatively bright sunset lit skies to the NW with the storm clouds rolling in.

well just hot and humid here by me so far, hopefully we get a shower later today whew.

Whew. It is August. Morning erands complete. Cerveza time here. Seabreeze convection started up just west of me, so I'll sit out and catch 30 minutes of clouds as they head toward John ZHills to dump some rain. Looking forward to the predicted pattern shift toward evening boomers.