CLOSED 7-25 FLORIDA/ALABAMA Tropical season weather

Had a very brief 1 minute burst a few minutes ago Largo. Gauge has .07" Pinellas is looking good shortly but hit/miss unless the line fills in there.

Up to 2.80" at my place so far. It was such a dry winter, spring and early summer that flooding is not a current threat. If this continues for a few days then the flooding threat will start to go up significantly as the ground will become saturated. Looks like the bulk of the energy has shifted south for a bit into Citrus and Hernando counties. If the low continues to develop it looks like the rain shield will build back in later today into tonight.

Nice totals WD. Do you use Ruskin or Jax radar? Seems you're on the northern fringe for Ruskin and the SW fringe for Jax. Maybe a combo to get a clearer view?

Afternoon everyone!

I am a happy camper today. :-) The gauge should be topping 1", but I'm not going back out to check right now.

Hey WD, I had that very eerie looking sky this morning around 6-7am....greenish kind of tint - enough that I noticed, and I'm not always the most observant when I'm in the zone working...lol

Next surge coming in off the GOM looks good if it holds together. Might be from Tarpon Springs south. We shall see.

StAugustineFL wrote:Nice totals WD.  Do you use Ruskin or Jax radar?  Seems you're on the northern fringe for Ruskin and the SW fringe for Jax.  Maybe a combo to get a clearer view?

Levy county is in no man's land when it comes to radar coverage. We are at the far edge of functionality for the Tampa, Jax and Tallahassee radars. For this reason I look at all of them, then ground truth which one is working on any given day, then use that radar for that particular storm. Also, the radar estimated rainfall totals are always way off for Levy county. Today, the Tampa radar seemed to be the most accurate.

Congrats on the rains WD and San.


We are full sun, 93/110. And it feels every bit of it!

ok Aug glad you got a little..maybe more tomorrow up there...well here by me its thundering bigtime but rainfall so far just about wet the street..hopefully some good rain will come as it comes ashore here later..

sangria wrote:Afternoon everyone!

I am a happy camper today.  :-)  The gauge should be topping 1", but I'm not going back out to check right now.  

Hey WD, I had that very eerie looking sky this morning around 6-7am....greenish kind of tint - enough that I noticed, and I'm not always the most observant when I'm in the zone working...lol

Makes you think of tornadoes. There was a special marine warning early this AM for waterspouts off Cedar Key, however I didn't see any as it was raining cats and dogs. The lightning however was very intense.

Okay, maybe it wasn't green.....lol

lol San. What a cool picture!

Great. Had and inch of rain before this latest line came through, and easily another inch with this line, in a very short period of time.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Great.  Had and inch of rain before this latest line came through, and easily another inch with this line, in a very short period of time.

Nice JR!  I was hoping to catch the north end, but it didn't happen.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Great.  Had and inch of rain before this latest line came through, and easily another inch with this line, in a very short period of time.

A good hump day for the west coast rain lovers! Disappointing here with .11" Might squeeze out another couple hundredths. Waiting for the last sprinkle to move through then time to fire up a burger/hot dog on the grill.

Steady hard rain for a couple hours now. Streets are flooding again.

sangria wrote:

JRnOldsmar wrote:Great.  Had and inch of rain before this latest line came through, and easily another inch with this line, in a very short period of time.

Nice JR!  I was hoping to catch the north end, but it didn't happen.

Sorry, San. It looks like I sapped all of the energy out of it.

Good luck, StPete. And off-topic, I'm looking for breakfast, for a group of folks, in your neck of the woods on Sunday. Thinking Trip's Diner. Any recommendations?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
359 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

FLZ067-069>071-073-075-174-031600-
/O.NEW.KMFL.HT.Y.0003.170803T1400Z-170803T2300Z/
Inland Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-Inland Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-Far South Miami-Dade-
Including the cities of Belle Glade, Wellington, Naples,
Immokalee, Miccosukee Indian Reservation, and Homestead
359 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a Heat Advisory,
which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
evening.

* TEMPERATURE...Heat index values around 110 degrees.

* IMPACTS...High heat index values could lead to dehydration and
heat exhaustion. Drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety
and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest
breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome
by heat stroke should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
429 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-041100-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
429 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Waves of locally heavy rainfall are expected across southeast
Georgia and portions of the Suwannee River Valley today. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts
possible which could cause localized flooding.

A River Flood warning is in effect for the St. Marys River at
Macclenny.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Thunderstorms are expected each day, with a few strong to
isolated severe storms possible. Stronger storms will be capable
of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. Spotters are encouraged to
report heavy rainfall amounts or flooding to the National Weather
Service.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

$$

good Thursday Morning Folks!!..well quite a wet yesterday around my area..especially the storms that cam thru here oh maybe 4pm? or so..bet I got an inch or more of rain then...and rain came in horizontal with blasting wind...didn't last but maybe half hour if that but..surprised no damage outside here..,,well today NWS is saying 40-50% chance for rain..especially I-4 northward...good luck if you get some rain folks...well....the Blogs Thursday Morning COFFEE is set to perk for when you get here...enjoy..have a great day everyone!

I just want to mention this..IF you like following the models.....things might get very interesting..7-10 days out from today...but..we all know..run to run they will change huh.

St.Pete.....did that water main break over on 4th street bother you any?..dont know if the boil water notice down there is still in effect...amazing how Lightning could have taken that Light pole down and also caused the break..must have been one Powerful Bolt huh

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

well NHC says we have invest 99L coming across from Africa....we'll see if it survives the crossing...wayyyy too early to believe any model or track..but just something to track and watch..it is August huh.

storms heading right toward your area Aug...good luck up there.

LargoFL wrote:storms heading right toward your area Aug...good luck up there.

Morning. No rain here but it has been cloudy and "cool" with a peak of sunshine every once in awhile.

Lots of rumbling and dark clouds, but no rainfall here since yesterday. Just 10 miles to my north has been getting slammed since last night with training cells running right up the Suwannee River. Rainfall totals there are currently at 4-6" and it looks like they will end up with 5-7" with some isolated 8"+ when all is said and done.

waterdipper wrote:Lots of rumbling and dark clouds, but no rainfall here since yesterday. Just 10 miles to my north has been getting slammed since last night with training cells running right up the Suwannee River. Rainfall totals there are currently at 4-6" and it looks like they will end up with 5-7" with some isolated 8"+ when all is said and done.

wow WD going to be some real flooding there huh

Aug tell your leaders to drop the shields ..gee sooo close to you.............

I'm waiting to see the 12Z model runs for 99L

Billsfan how did you make out with Cat-3 Wilma in 2005?...a lot of damage down there??

its been many years since a BIG hurricane hit Florida..lets hope there's many More years yet till one does huh

Jenny how is it up there in the Panhandle?..you ok there?.....................

well lets see what NHC is saying about 99L in about 7-8 days time....some models already have it at hurricane in 5-6 days.,...wayyy too early yet to believe anything the models are saying today...just something for us to track and watch ok.

gee panhandle area's getting storm after storm,all day long so far..stay safe up there...

ok guess everyone is working, BBL

Coming down in buckets here again. The front re-fired offshore and is training right into Dixie and Levy counties. This is really becoming a significant rain event. I just picked up another 2 inches in the last half hour, and it appears it is going to continue for some time. Hope this front moves out tomorrow as we could use some drying.

waterdipper wrote:Coming down in buckets here again. The front re-fired offshore and is training right into Dixie and Levy counties. This is really becoming a significant rain event. I just picked up another 2 inches in the last half hour, and it appears it is going to continue for some time. Hope this front moves out tomorrow as we could use some drying.

Be safe up there, WD.

Head's up, Aug. WD's is sending this up to you.

I just hope it makes it down this far. TWC doesn't seem to think so.

waterdipper wrote:Coming down in buckets here again. The front re-fired offshore and is training right into Dixie and Levy counties. This is really becoming a significant rain event. I just picked up another 2 inches in the last half hour, and it appears it is going to continue for some time. Hope this front moves out tomorrow as we could use some drying.

thanks for keeping us informed WD, bet there will be flooding up there when all this water reaches the lakes and streams huh..stay alert and safe ok.

folks besides the rains...keep watching the tropics..99L is now up to 70% in 5 days and now we have one heading sort of into the bay of Campeche too.....tropics heating up now.

track will surely change but..here is GFS in 9-10 days out............................

CMC model also has it as a Hurricane...........................................

well suns full out here and no rain at all by me, guess it all went northward..good luck up there ok

Levi's tracks for 99L..........................................................................

remember many days away yet..these tracks will change....im waiting for next Thursday's NHC discussion.

LargoFL wrote:Levi's tracks for 99L..........................................................................

Those green models must have been updated by the kindergarten class. They are now known as the dot-to-dot models

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Levi's tracks for 99L..........................................................................

Those green models must have been updated by the kindergarten class. They are now known as the dot-to-dot models

Just follow the bouncing ball! Looks like it's gonna land in the Central Lesser Antilles.