CLOSED 7-25 FLORIDA/ALABAMA Tropical season weather

I'm preparing for a Tropical storm coming In or Near Tampa bay.........now if it doesn't happen..ok...I was ready and prepared.

LargoFL wrote:I'm preparing for a Tropical storm coming In or Near Tampa bay.........now if it doesn't happen..ok...I was ready and prepared.

Good Luck Largo and everyone else is pathway of TD #6... Best to prepare for the worst Largo. I know flooding isn't a concern, but I hope those big trees stay put.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:I'm preparing for a Tropical storm coming In or Near Tampa bay.........now if it doesn't happen..ok...I was ready and prepared.

Good Luck Largo and everyone else is pathway of TD #6... Best to prepare for the worst Largo.  I know flooding isn't a concern, but I hope those big trees stay put.  

good morning Billsfan and thanks, yeah it looks like Tampa bay then eastward for this TD-6,just hope no Bad winds..i always watch out for those surprise Tornado's when a storm is coming ashore...well lets see how this plays out thru today..

Tropical Depression Six Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Radar imagery from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D indicates that shower
and thunderstorm activity associated with the small low pressure
area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico have persisted and become
better organized overnight. Earlier ASCAT data showed that the
system has a well-defined circulation and winds of at least 30 kt
over a small area to the north and northwest of the center. Based on
these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical
depression. The depression is currently embedded within an area of
moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Although the upper-level
winds could become a little more favorable for strengthening, the
depression is expected to move inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula later today, and no significant change in wind speed is
predicted. After the depression moves over the western Atlantic,
increasing westerly shear is forecast to prevent intensification.
This scenario is in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which
show the system weakening and likely dissipating in 3 to 4 days, or
perhaps sooner.

The depression is moving eastward at about 7 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that
extends southwestward along the U.S. east coast. This pattern should
steer the system eastward today, then northeastward with some
increase in forward speed through dissipation. The track guidance is
in relatively good agreement on this scenario, although there are
some differences in how fast the system will accelerate
northeastward. For now, the NHC forecast lies between the faster
HWRF and GFS solutions, and the slower ECMWF.

The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. Due to the uncertainty in the intensity forecast, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1000Z 27.7N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

From BayNews9.................ST. PETERSBURG -- 
The area of low pressure we have been watching is now Tropical Depression Six.
Winds this morning are 35 mph but it would only take a minor increase in intensity to reach tropical storm conditions. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from the Anclote River southward to Englewood. 
This includes Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota counties.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours.

Ok Florida gulf coast folks...we are under a tropical storm Watch...stay alert and safe today folks...ok ok..i'll perk a second pot of the Blogs COFFEE LOL...think I might need it today LOL

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from the Anclote River southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Englewood Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move inland over the central Florida peninsula later
today and move across central Florida through tonight. The
depression is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida
coast early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west
coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with
isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central
and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized
amounts of up to 4 inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Good morning, TD6.  Welcome aboard.  Take your time...  

Thanks for keeping the coffee percolating, Largo.

gee what a difference a day makes huh....hope everyone knows about the coming storm which COULD..strengthen and a surprise TS could appear, don't get caught off guard today..stay safe especially on the roadways today.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Good morning, TD6.  Welcome aboard.  Take your time...  

Thanks for keeping the coffee percolating, Largo.

Good Morning JR..yes it looks like we are in the strike zone later today or very close to it..yeah coffee came out good today too

Six Local Watch/Warning Statement/Special Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL062017
632 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

FLZ050-311845-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TR.A.1006.170731T1032Z-000000T0000Z/
Pinellas-
632 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means Tropical storm wind conditions are
possible somewhere within this area and within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- St. Petersburg
- Clearwater
- Largo

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for
tropical storm force wind of 39 to 57 mph.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited wind
impacts. Efforts should now be underway to secure all
properties.
- Hazardous wind is possible. Failure to adequately shelter
may result in serious injury.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Not available at this time. To be
updated shortly.

- Threat to Life and Property: Not available at this time. To be
updated shortly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Not available at this time. To be updated
shortly.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for
minor flooding where peak rainfall totals are near amounts
conducive for localized flash flooding and rapid inundation.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited flooding
rain impacts.
- Localized flooding is possible. If flood related watches
and warnings are issued, heed recommended actions.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for
isolated tornadoes, mostly with shorter and narrower damage
paths.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornado
impacts.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/tbw

$$

You guys can have the fun with TD6. The front cleared up here and it is a nice sunny morning after yesterdays wet and soggy. I ended up with 2.80" for the event and 9.67" total for the month of July. Just 2 weeks ago I was extremely dry still with not much rainfall for the month, then the last two weeks brought me 7.5". Hope everyone fairs well with the storm.

waterdipper wrote:You guys can have the fun with TD6. The front cleared up here and it is a nice sunny morning after yesterdays wet and soggy. I ended up with 2.80" for the event and 9.67" total for the month of July. Just 2 weeks ago I was extremely dry still with not much rainfall for the month, then the last two weeks brought me 7.5". Hope everyone fairs well with the storm.

good morning WD, glad you got some good rain there...its light rain here by me so far this morning,hopefully when this storm comes ashore here..winds wont be too bad..have a great day up there ok

also a Flood Watch..................................................Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
537 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...Flood Watch is in effect for today...

.Low pressure moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico combined
with abundant moisture will cause widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms today with heavy rainfall possible.

FLZ050-056-057-061-151-155-160-162-165-251-255-260-262-265-010000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0001.170731T0937Z-170801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinellas-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Hillsborough-
Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-
Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-
Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-
Including the cities of St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo,
Wauchula, Bowling Green, Zolfo Springs, Sebring, Avon Park,
Placid Lakes, Arcadia, Tampa, Apollo Beach, Westchase, Bradenton,
Anna Maria Island, Venice, Sarasota, Englewood, Port Charlotte,
Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, Captiva, Sanibel, Brandon, Plant City,
Sun City Center, Parrish, Lakewood Ranch, Myakka City,
North Port, Babcock Ranch, Fort Myers, and Lehigh Acres
537 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of central Florida, south central
Florida, southwest Florida, and west central Florida,
including the following areas, in central Florida, Hardee. In
south central Florida, DeSoto and Highlands. In southwest
Florida, Coastal Charlotte, Coastal Lee, Inland Charlotte, and
Inland Lee. In west central Florida, Coastal Hillsborough,
Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, Inland Hillsborough, Inland
Manatee, Inland Sarasota, and Pinellas.

* Through this evening

* Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
across the watch area. Conditions will be supportive of some
very heavy rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with
locally higher amounts possible in some locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
743 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

FLZ067-068-311230-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
743 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds for central
Palm Beach County Until 830 AM EDT...

* At 742 AM EDT...National Weather Service Meteorologists detected a
Line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles
south of J And S Fish Camp to Pahokee to near South Bay...and
moving east at 30 mph.

* The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 45 TO 55 mph. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Palm Beach Gardens, Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Lake Harbor,
Canal Point, Okeelanta, Belle Glade Camp, Lion Country Safari Park,
Fremd Village-Padgett Island, The Acreage, Loxahatchee Groves,
Loxahatchee Nwr and Caloosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

&&

LAT...LON 2657 8035 2652 8086 2679 8086 2681 8084
2679 8082 2691 8070 2698 8069 2702 8064
2702 8063 2696 8061 2696 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 269DEG 28KT 2699 8064 2683 8065 2666 8076

$$

MOLLEDA

It is official... we have Tropical Storm Emily!! and its sitting just off Pinellas county..oh boy I'm going to get this one here, I can just feel it ......just hope no tornado's or high winds when it comes ashore.

St.Pete..you up yet?...we are going to get this tropical storm here today..stay safe down there ok.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Special Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River southward to Bonita Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast and an
increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland over
the the west-central Florida peninsula later today and move across
central Florida through tonight. Emily is expected to move offshore
of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday.

NOAA Doppler radar data from Tampa, Florida, indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs
this afternoon. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
803 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

FLZ069-070-311245-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
803 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds for western
Collier County Until 845 AM EDT...

* At 803 AM EDT...National Weather Service Meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm near Naples Park, or 9 miles northwest of
Naples, moving east at 35 mph.

* The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 45 TO 55 mph. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Naples, Golden Gate Estates, Ave Maria, Belle Meade, Orangetree,
East Naples, Golden Gate, Lely Resort, Big Corkscrew Island,
Vineyards, Royal Palm Hammock, Naples Park, Marco Island Airport,
Naples Manor, West Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, North Naples,
Pelican Bay, Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary, Lely and Fakahatchee Strand
State Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8185 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8166
2642 8166 2642 8157 2647 8156 2650 8148
2593 8136 2597 8168 2614 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1203Z 253DEG 31KT 2625 8191

$$

I'm just LOLing at the little storm that could! Never, would I have expected that little pissant Low to become a TS.

It is so small and south weighted that it looks like Manatee county will be the beneficiary - much to my chagrin! I've been dry slotted for most of the "event" with a whopping .34" to celebrate!

sangria wrote:I'm just LOLing at the little storm that could!  Never, would I have expected that little pissant Low to become a TS.

It is so small and south weighted that it looks like Manatee county will be the beneficiary - much to my chagrin!   I've been dry slotted for most of the "event" with a whopping .34" to celebrate!  

LOL good morning San...its not supposed to come ashore until this afternoon, I guess it doesn't really matter exactly where it comes ashore..most of us will get something from it..............Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
and they are saying conditions are good for tornado's..so stay alert and safe ok.

all I'm worried about are all these huge tree's around me....it can rain all it wants..wont bother me much but a tree coming down would...gee.

lol San..the Lil storm that could!!........................................................

Oh Emily,
would you pass over Florida and spin up some fish!..

Ignore this Total QPF forecast from NAM - this model is on crack this morning!

A Subtropical Hybrid....hope other storms do bully her

HRRR has a much better handle on where the rain will be - out to 18 hours (max for HRRR)

Largo, I don't think I would worry too much about the wind, although you are a bit further south.

Based on the forecast discussion, the wind was measured by "Doppler" and that estimated wind was on the south side.

"Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate
average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation
center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a
standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent
surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. "

Go Away EMILY...NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...

LargoFL wrote:all I'm worried about are all these huge tree's around me....it can rain all it wants..wont bother me much but a tree coming down would...gee.

Nothing a red neck and a chainsaw can't handle!!..LOL Only problem with tress is if they come through your house.Been there done that!

gomexwx wrote:

LargoFL wrote:all I'm worried about are all these huge tree's around me....it can rain all it wants..wont bother me much but a tree coming down would...gee.

Nothing a red neck and a chainsaw can't handle!!..LOL Only problem with tress is if they come through your house.Been there done that!

yeah that's what I'm worried about right now Gome..rain wont bother me..its the wind and tree's here.....but..so far so good, light breezes and light rain is all

I'm wondering what would happen...if Emily goes into the mouth of Tampa bay?....would flooding be a concern for some area's??

Not anything impressive coming from any of the operating bouy stations or from any ships in the vicinity.  Click on the identifier in the far left column and it will open the individual reporting station/ship and provide a map of its location as well as additional measurements.


Bouy Data From Stations and Ships in the vicinity of TS Emily   currently at 27.7 and 83.2

She's a cloud with a name for now,,,

Description:
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...A Tropical Storm Warning means Tropical storm wind conditions areexpected somewhere within this area and within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED- St. Petersburg- Clearwater- Largo

* WIND- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remainpossible- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from theprevious assessment.- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat fortropical storm force wind of 39 to 57 mph.- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited windimpacts. Efforts should now be underway to secure allproperties.- Hazardous wind is possible. Failure to adequately sheltermay result in serious injury.- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchoredmobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped oruprooted, but with greater numbers in places where treesare shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blownover.- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly withinurban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous drivingconditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Not available at this time. To beupdated shortly.- Threat to Life and Property: Not available at this time. To beupdated shortly.- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Not available at this time. To be updatedshortly.

* FLOODING RAIN- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locallyhigher amounts- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady fromthe previous assessment.- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat forminor flooding where peak rainfall totals are near amountsconducive for localized flash flooding and rapid inundation.- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited floodingrain impacts.- Localized flooding is possible. If flood related watchesand warnings are issued, heed recommended actions.- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swiftercurrents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches maybecome swollen and overflow in spots.- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially inusually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid pondingof water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poordrainage areas. Several storm drains and retention pondsbecome near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road andbridge closures.

* TORNADO- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from theprevious assessment.- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat forisolated tornadoes, mostly with shorter and narrower damagepaths.- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornadoimpacts.- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready toshelter quickly if a tornado approaches.- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder theexecution of emergency plans during tropical events.- A few places may experience tornado damage, along withpower and communications disruptions.- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations oroverturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blownoff roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:- http://www.weather.gov/tbw

NWS SPC.....................Central/south Florida...
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression Six
to Tropical Storm Emily early this morning, related to an area of
low pressure just west of the Tampa vicinity. A very moist
environment exists across the central/southern Peninsula with
prevalent middle 70s F surface dewpoints. While existing early-day
convection/cloud cover may hinder destabilization, low-level winds
should somewhat strengthen today, with somewhat greater hodograph
length/curvature immediately near the low-level circulation and
across the south-central FL peninsula near and just south of a
residual front. A brief tornado and/or waterspout could occur.

Looks like your typical early season TS for the west coast of FL. Not much going on near the center at the present. The band hitting Pinellas down to Sarasota counties looks pretty good. The majority of the heavy rainfall is displaced well south and east of the center, with a large dry slot between it and the center. Yesterday the forecast was for this frontal system to move back north and bring a return of the heavy rainfall into north FL. Now with Emily, mets are not so sure. Does anybody think Emily will clear the atmosphere out or will enough energy remain along the stalled frontal system to bring a return of moisture northward during the week?

Ignore my sense of humor,after going through Camille,Ivan,Frederic,Opal and Katrina..A sense of humor is what you learn to help you through them..Especially that 2 hours of terror as you go through the eye wall and poke em in the eye!

I think I'm with San on this one. Very possibly a disappointment up our way.
3/4" so far for the event. Still hoping.........

Tropical Storm Emily Local Statement Special Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL062017
858 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**TROPICAL STORM EMILY NEARING TAMPA BAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal
Sarasota, and Pinellas
- A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Coastal Charlotte
and Coastal Lee

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Charlotte,
Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Lee, Coastal Manatee, Coastal
Sarasota, and Pinellas

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 30 miles west-northwest of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL or about
50 miles west-northwest of Sarasota FL
- 27.7N 83.2W
- Storm Intensity 45 mph
- Movement East or 95 degrees at 8 mph

JRnOldsmar wrote:I think I'm with San on this one.  Very possibly a disappointment up our way.
3/4" so far for the event.  Still hoping.........

Wenniecanes rule!...I do hope you get enough rain to be a drought breaker..

folks remember, the winds in a TS are counter clockwise if I remember right, so even if..the center comes ashore to the south of you...you'll still be the winds and storms all around it, yeah even to its north..lets just stay alert for any surprises and for some folks..this storm will be giving them much needed rain huh...afterwards those living close to rivers and streams may have to stay alert for any flooding concerns I guess.

Certainly a rain event here in St. Pete. Up to 2.5" this morning, we'll easily get 3-4" before its through

well looks like my area got about an inch and a half rain last 24 hours..now lets see what another 2-4 inches or more will do..glad I don't have to drive anywhere today.