CLOSED FLORIDA/ALABAMA/TROPICAL BLOG

That's a good opine San. I agree the mayor did not handle it well and I haven't seen anymore about destroyed busses so I can't comment on that. And the Governor was imploring people to leave, but a lot of folks don't have the means to do so.

The rich may be getting richer........

Just a heads up: seeing some standing water in roads north of Clearwater up towards Pasco County.

Been wet there for sure rjla

Current inbound static radar.......Largo should be popping in soon since he's smack dab in the center.

StAugustineFL wrote:The rich may be getting richer........

Cha Ching

I gotta hand it to KHOU 11 for the outstanding coverage of the events in Houston. I hope that the Tampa stations take note of it is ever needed here.

Evac is actually rather simple. You just need to organize 40 million human beings, who understand their role and responsibility in a severe weather event. If they are all knowledgeable, aware, and ready at a moment’s notice, the Gold Coast is a Ghost Town in 48 hours; Coast Guard, National Guard, Red Cross, FEMA are already in full action, and the Pres is in the State’s EOC for landfall.

Then the storm takes a jog out, and comes back to hit Jacksonville!

Yes. It sounds like the Houston Mayor could have done a better job. He had fair warning, and his emergency managers should know the expected outcomes from the rain predictions.

I'm not quite sure how to interpret your post JR. I think we all agree it's just awful. And I just love all the people (not government) that are stepping up to help. The Government of course will be there too, but I liked it when Trump said, this is no time for congratulations, we will do that when's it's over. And there's a long way to go.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I'm not quite sure how to interpret your post JR.  I think we all agree it's just awful.  And I just love all the people (not government) that are stepping up to help. The Government of course will be there too, but I liked it when Trump said, this is no time for congratulations, we will do that when's it's over.  And there's a long way to go.

Thanks, BillsFan. I think we agree on the complete impossibilities of successfully evacuating a large metropolitan area, and yes, it's our regular folks who can and will make a difference whenever the need arises. This is a bad situation and there is still a long way to go. Possibly a long season as well. (p.s. post was supposed to be satirical )

Another .5 here from that bonus round.

StAugustineFL wrote:Been wet there for sure rjla

Current inbound static radar.......Largo should be popping in soon since he's smack dab in the center.

wow it sure came down Hard alright and lasted quite awhile also...guess I can add another inch of rain to the list lol

oh no....is yet ANOTHER Harvey type storm coming??................................93L....

Folks I sure hope this 93L storm dies out or curves back into the atlantic..still too far out in time But.....................

Good Wednesday Morning folks!!.......well I got some Heavy down pouring rain last night,i Had thought..the storms had moved north..they didn't lol...oh well today is supposed to be drier and some area's really need..dry out time huh...........well Blog's COFFEE is set to perk for when you get here enjoy..have a great day everyone!

well this early morning, models still are making 93L a hurricane and some..are making it a very Strong hurricane and..headed westward still............still 9-10 days out..and no use listening to model runs..surely they will be changing over and over...for myself I'm going to really be watching this 93L from Labor day on..we should have a better idea where and how strong by then.

Morning All,
Another .63 in the bucket last night. 7.97 for the month. Keep watching 93L Largo. I am busy and don't have a lot of time to keep track and you do a great job!!!!!
Have a great day all
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Another .63 in the bucket last night. 7.97 for the month. Keep watching 93L Largo. I am busy and don't have a lot of time to keep track and you do a great job!!!!!
Have a great day all
John Z-hills

good morning John, ok will do..im retired and have time for sure to keep tracking this may be Bad storm coming..still plenty of time yet for it to turn away or die out.....but this time of year every storm needs to be watched huh....have a great day john.

Jenny...is your area getting any of Harvey's wind or rain at all??

ok 93L up to 100% chance to develop,NHC says might be an advisory at 11am......

folks don't look at model tracks yet..way too early,maybe labor day or a few after that they'll know...my guess is from 9-9 to 9-11 is our danger time unless it stalls or turns.

one thing is almost for sure..this storm will have plenty of time to build as it comes across and from the discussions..there seems to be little of the things that could kill it off like shear or smoke etc.

Glad to see some of you finally getting the rainfall. This event really hasn't done much here in Levy county. I did pick up another 0.60" yesterday afternoon and it fell in a long lasting light to moderate rain/soaking rain. That brings my monthly total to 12.45". This summer really started out dry for all of June, but it has been a nice rainy season here since then. Now lets keep all those tropical SOBs away. Don't need any Frances/Jeanne repeats.

waterdipper wrote:Glad to see some of you finally getting the rainfall. This event really hasn't done much here in Levy county. I did pick up another 0.60" yesterday afternoon and it fell in a long lasting light to moderate rain/soaking rain. That brings my monthly total to 12.45". This summer really started out dry for all of June, but it has been a nice rainy season here since then. Now lets keep all those tropical SOBs away. Don't need any Frances/Jeanne repeats.

yes indeed..i hope it turns away.

So far for Harvey I have 4.27 inches of rain ...It's still raining

gomexwx wrote:So far for Harvey I have 4.27 inches of rain ...It's still raining

ok Gome..stay safe up there ok

93L..most think it will be upgraded to Tropical storm at the 11am NHC advisory............

OK Folks ..93L is now officially tropical Storm IRMA...heading westward..its way too early to have any idea where its going or hitting ok..many days to watch this bad girl...

this model says 9-11 this year could get interesting but wayyy too early to believe any model..

well Here is the Official discussion.......................................Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday,
with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak
winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the
circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the
instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models
indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for
strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma
will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier
mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate.
The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the
statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end
of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the
very conducive environment shown in most of the global models
emerges.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern
Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days.
Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause
the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.
The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the
regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on
this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern
side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction
as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.4N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$

for myself, I have a bad feeling about this one..i hope somehow it dies off or recurves out into the atlantic...but..many days left to watch it..who knows what it is going to do.

here is the official guess estimated track so far.....don't like this dip southward whew...

one thing maybe in our favor..it formed way too early,and by Saturday maybe its a hurricane and still far away from us...could it..burn itself out before getting close to us?

LargoFL wrote:one thing maybe in our favor..it formed way too early,and by Saturday maybe its a hurricane and still far away from us...could it..burn itself out before getting close to us?

Thank you for all the updates Largo! I was thinking that too. Don't strong early developing storms tend to get pulled northward? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?

what a difference a day makes.  So far sunny and dry in St. Pete

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:one thing maybe in our favor..it formed way too early,and by Saturday maybe its a hurricane and still far away from us...could it..burn itself out before getting close to us?

Thank you for all the updates Largo!   I was thinking that too.  Don't strong early developing storms tend to get pulled northward?  Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?

yeah but they are mentioning something that will block it going northward...lets see if in a week its still there...keep a very close watch on IRMA Billsfan

StPeteFLwx wrote:what a difference a day makes.  So far sunny and dry in St. Pete

yeah and the sun sure is strong today and humidity is high too..whew.

and the spot in the western Gulf they expect to develop..now at 20%...........

well the 12Z Euro is finished.......whew we sure might be in trouble if this verify's....

boy I sure don't want this scrapping past south florida and into the gulf..but...no model can be believed just yet..wait till Labor day and see whats going on then...

Nam says we may be getting some of Harveys leftover rain Friday............

stay alert gome..........................................Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
210 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

ALC003-097-301945-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-170830T1945Z/
Mobile AL-Baldwin AL-
210 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MOBILE AND NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTIES...

At 210 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Satsuma, moving
north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Stockton, Axis, Mount Vernon, I65 And AL
225 and Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

geez, please stay away from Florida IRMA...................................................

This IRMA may...turn out to be one monster of a storm,nothing in its way to seriously make it wane in strength etc..and the blocking high pressure to its north wont let it go northward...still 9 days away unless it somehow speeds up..and so far it looks like Florida or slipping thru the straights into the gulf..BUT..nothing track wise etc can be believed..way too early....guess that needs to keep being repeated huh..kinda scary after seeing pics of Texas and Harvey..and IRMA could be..just as strong...well that's just me thinking this..for myself day after Labor day I might freshen up my supplies etc just in case.

well I'd better stop now LOL...no use getting nervous when the storm is still 9-10 days away huh..........not much weather going on for us here today, just HOT and sunny....good night folks..IF anyone is online tonight..please post the 18Z Euro ok..thanks.....

JRnOldsmar wrote:

Then the storm takes a jog out, and comes back to hit Jacksonville!

Now, now JR.....what did I say to upset you? LOL

Yeah, Irma seems she doesn't want to play nice. We shall see how things evolve the coming days.

Relatively dry pattern here continues. Not super dry but below normal rainfall wise. Around 4.75" for the month. Average is 6.5"

I heard that we are to expect gas shortages due to Harvey. Sure hope that's not true, especially if Irma decides to visit.

StAugustineFL wrote:

JRnOldsmar wrote:

Then the storm takes a jog out, and comes back to hit Jacksonville!

Now, now JR.....what did I say to upset you?     LOL

No worries, StAug. I'll have my sis pick y'all up on the way down. A storm up there, means the party is at my place.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I heard that we are to expect gas shortages due to Harvey.  Sure hope that's not true, especially if Irma decides to visit.

The refining capacity has apparently dropped, due to shutdowns. I'm surprised that gas prices haven't gone up already in profitable anticipation. I think a lot of gas for Florida comes into Tampa from Houston. (John in ZHills might know better on this topic)

JR gas prices are up already (at least down here) I paid $2.49/gallon today.

Hi y'all!

Largo, thanks for all of the posts in here. I've been so busy with work that it is nice to be able to pop in and see everything and not have to go hunt the graphics down.

I finally had a day of sunshine and my plants are happy. I had not heard about the gas prices, but it wouldn't surprise me at all. I guess I should probably fill up before they skyrocket!

That SW track NHC has for Irma is a bit worrisome. That tells me that the Bermuda high is getting stronger and nosing more west, and there will be no door for her to swing north out of harm's way. It's going to be a long 10-15 days watching her.... sigh