CLOSED FLORIDA/ALABAMA/TROPICAL BLOG

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:JR   gas prices are up already (at least down here) I paid $2.49/gallon today.  

How much of a jump was that for you Billsfan? I don't keep up with the fluctuations too much since I office out of my home. I don't use a lot of gas.

I too work from home and don't drive much but filled up last weekend and prices were $2.29 at the time.

Harvey was around 938MB at landfall I believe.  How about the GFS down to 908MB with Irma?.  Run is still in the process of finishing up.

897MB at 240 hours but well east of the coast.

Hi San. I think about .15 /gallon. .it's been creeping up there recently anyway. May go thru the roof now. Sure hope not. Had enough of the nearly $4 /gallon that we had for many years

We like that Aug. Keep it out there!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:JR   gas prices are up already (at least down here) I paid $2.49/gallon today.  

I topped off at 2.29 late last week, and it just dropped from 2.24 to 2.19 today. I'll be topping off again tomorrow. Road trip coming at 17 miles per gallon.

I do keep an eye on gas prices. Gas Buddy is a great app. Just on the drive to work, prices can have a 10 cent spread. That's about $2.50 in the pocket.

Levi put a video out this evening...

well here is the overnight Euro model on Irma, its like the 1935 labor day hurricane...

i'll try to keep up on the models for Irma as best I can but..i'll keep saying this...we cannot believe any of them, track wise..its way too early yet and things can change run to run, let alone day to day huh..

yes gas prices went up some here too, last time I gassed up it was $2.26.

Good Thursday Morning folks!...well today it looks like weather wise we are back to normal..Hot with the chance of afternoon showers etc ..well overnight model wise, GFS-CMC take Irma northward away from florida..Euro takes Irma thru the florida straights..cant believe any of them just yet......................well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 32.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 32.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally
westward motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Irma is likely to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

LargoFL wrote:yes gas prices went up some here too, last time I gassed up it was $2.26.

Hi, Went by gas station this morning was 2.22 now 2.40 Z-hills

LargoFL wrote:i'll try to keep up on the models for Irma as best I can but..i'll keep saying this...we cannot believe any of them, track wise..its way too early yet and things can change run to run, let alone day to day huh..

Morning all, The next storm Irma is worth keeping an eye on. This one bothers me. JMO!!
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:i'll try to keep up on the models for Irma as best I can but..i'll keep saying this...we cannot believe any of them, track wise..its way too early yet and things can change run to run, let alone day to day huh..

Morning all, The next storm Irma is worth keeping an eye on. This one bothers me. JMO!!
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

good morning John..yes all eyes on Irma

NWS Tampa.......Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today, with the higher rain
chances across interior portions of the peninsula. Gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and torrential rains will accompany any
stronger storms.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers will remain in flood stage over the next few
days. Additional rainfall may worsen or prolong the existing
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
At least scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day, with
the higher rain chances expected over the weekend. Gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and torrential rains will accompany any
stronger storms.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers will remain in flood stage over the next few
days. Additional rainfall may worsen or prolong the existing
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

GFS no longer has Irma out to sea........................................................

Good morning. I agree specific tracks don't have much merit at this point. I look for general trends. Over the last couple of days the current trend with the Euro and GFS seems to be pushing further west. We shall see if that continues into the weekend. Interesting times ahead.

TWC said (last night) that we are "certain" on the 5-day track; guiding WNW, then WSW.  I'm not sure that we can be "certain" 5 days out, but we shall see.

yes lets see whats going on oh labor day or the day after...by then they should have a very good idea

Only concern I have, is the models are playing with the idea of a cat-4 or maybe even a cat-5,and since peak of season will be here when Irma gets here...hmmm stay tuned.

Intensity and tracks will change,storm is still 9-10 days out..stay alert..and be prepared as always just in case.

Good morning. Gas is 2.59 this morning!

I don't like Irma either. Go away Irma.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning. Gas is 2.59 this morning!

I don't like Irma either.   Go away Irma.  

good morning Billsfan,yes IRMA go away!!

Irma is rapidly intensifying. Up to a 100mph cat 2 already.

Then there is this from Michael Ventrice:  Major development: The best ECMWF EPS members via initialization score are west of ensemble mean track, taking #Irma into the Gulf of Mexico

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIjz_8LUIAAqx4u.jpg

Those intensity maps are going to go up.  They were initialized when Irma was 60mph.  The most aggressive model didn't have her up to 100mph until 72 more hours.

NHC forecasts major at next advisory.



This is just keeps getting better and better.

Took the afternoon off. Ran an errand earlier. Gas up to $2.49. I'm sure big oil will price gouge the public up to $3/gallon in no time.

Attention Blog.....Notice what is BEHIND IRMA.......................................

folks don't take your eyes off IRMA, they say she will be a Major hurricane..first Harvey, now Irma..2 Major hurricanes one after the other..gee

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Satellite images indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying.
Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast,
which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates
were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues
to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to
85 kt.

Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model
guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the
warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north,
possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over
cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so
hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a
few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light
shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote
further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the
solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity
forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial
trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This
motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds
over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to
turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next
week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of
the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge
and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to
discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the
guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short
range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long
range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF
ensemble models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.9N 33.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.5N 35.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 37.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 39.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.1N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

well I'm getting a bit concerned with IRMA..I just hope should she comes thru Florida..she gives us time to prepare or..time to run should she be what they think..a very Major Hurricane like Harvey?............don't surprise us Irma..give us the time we need.....thank goodness she is still 9 days away unless she speeds up which..sometimes happens huh

LargoFL wrote:Attention Blog.....Notice what is BEHIND IRMA.......................................

The noon time guy on TWC said it absolutely will NOT take a northerly turn. He said "do not get your hopes up that it will take a more northerly track" I sure the heck hope he is wrong.

Time to use Labor Day sales to inventory and restock your supplies, and start your checklist. Next weekend could be a tad more hectic. At this point, I'm expecting this to be a major that makes at least 1 landfall. I hope I'm wrong.

I got this off of Doc's cat-6 blog front page..Euro Runs.........................................

ok so for myself, I'm preparing as best I can..but 130+ mph winds..IF that happens..poof everything around me will be gone..best thing I'm doing is getting all the important papers and things ready beforehand and things I'd take in case we have to run..and i'll be ready..and IF it doesn't happen..great..but I was ready....not going to get caught off guard like a lot of folks were in Texas...but hey..this may NOT happen huh..it could go in the gulf too and go up to the northern gulf coast or yeah..the unthinkable..go to texas...sooo much uncertainty right now..but..for myself..i'll be ready........like I said..IF it goes somewhere else..thats Fantastic!!

when this IRMA does come close to us I'm wondering just how far away from the center these destructive 120-130mph winds would be..if it went up the middle of florida..would both coasts get those winds too?..so much I need to learn lol

ok back to todays weather.............NWS MIAMI...Thu Aug 31 2017

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...
...HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 109 MOST AREAS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible, mainly this afternoon,
over interior and western sections of South Florida. Lightning will
be the primary threat, although a few thunderstorms may produce
locally heavy rainfall leading to street flooding.

Flooding: Thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall this
afternoon, and could potentially cause street flooding, mainly in the
Naples area.

Temperatures: Heat indices will exceed 105 degrees this afternoon over
much of South Florida, esepcailly in interior Palm Beach and Collier
counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Thunderstorms are likely Friday and Saturday, mainly during the
afternoons over interior South Florida. Lightning strikes are the
primary threat. A chance of thunderstorms will then continue through
early next week.

Heat index values are expected to exceed 105 degrees over portions of
South Florida Friday and Saturday.

A long period swell arriving along east coast beaches from Friday
through this weekend will increase the rip current risk to at least
a moderate impact during this time frame.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

you can see..Irma's eye clearly now....................................................

Well, THAT didn't take long for her to put on her big girl panties!!

I agree JR, this weekend is a good time to do a little re-stocking. Damn that girl!

LargoFL wrote:when this IRMA does come close to us I'm wondering just how far away from the center these destructive 120-130mph winds would be..if it went up the middle of florida..would both coasts get those winds too?..so much I need to learn lol

No guarantee it comes close to us. It'll be 5 more days before approaching the Leeward Islands 1500+ miles away. As far as winds, the strongest are in the eyewall. How strong they are beyond depends on the size/structure of the storm at point XYZ. Could be a hurricane 150 miles away bringing you 90mph wind gusts or 40mph wind gusts. Then there's the storm surge impacts for coastal areas based on storm position and wind direction.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Attention Blog.....Notice what is BEHIND IRMA.......................................

The noon time guy on TWC said it absolutely will NOT take a northerly turn. He said "do not get your hopes up that it will take a more northerly track" I sure the heck hope he is wrong.

boy I'm with you ON THAT..THIS IS one time I'm hoping the GFS model wins..take her Northward..please.

NHC Public Advisory
Updated: 3 hrs 43 mins ago
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
... HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST... 1500 UTC... INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION... 16.9N 33.8W ABOUT 650 MI... 1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1845 MI... 2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 100 MPH... 155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT... WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH... 17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB... 28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST. IRMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
$$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Seabreeze starting to fire here. Might get a little relief from the August doldrums that settled in yesterday. Just hit 97 degrees.

12Z Euro running still.....here's IRMA next week Friday............................

Billsfan...still 9 days out..can still change ok...many days yet to watch...............

Hey all. I don't watch TWC cut my cable. But how can they determine it won't go north? Levi Cowan suggested in his video yesterday that its early and speculating now is foolish. Did TWC say where landfall would be? I've seen models GFS that takes it to PA/NY area. D.C. Would be nice. Main thing is this has to go OTS and we'll deal with the other one behind it.