CLOSED FLORIDA/ALABAMA/TROPICAL BLOG

12Z Euro finished.. a Hit on south Florida.......end of run cant tell where else it goes..

but..it may be just going thru the straights to the gulf..man we really need to pay attention next 9-10 days or so......im voting for it to go Poof geez

ok enough of the scary stories..9-10 days from now it could be up in Maine huh..way too early to know but..time to go over preps and plans for sure huh..

PuppyToes wrote:Hey all. I don't watch TWC cut my cable. But how can they determine it won't go north?  Levi Cowan suggested in his video yesterday that its early and speculating now is foolish. Did TWC say where landfall would be? I've seen models GFS that takes it to PA/NY area. D.C. Would be nice. Main thing is this has to go OTS and we'll deal with the other one behind it.

Nice one, PuppyToes.

ok so a cat-4 and cat 5 uninhabitable for weeks or months..guess IF it decides to come here I guess I'm traveling outta here...have to think of my wife and dogs..but a cat-3..i dunno..might stick that out..its a tough call..im looking at pics in texas and I can only imagine the horrible time those folks are living thru...and now officials are warning them of diseases etc in that water they have been wading thru..gee..mother nature sure can be mean sometimes huh.....now my neighbor..and old Floridian here says..don't worry..hurricanes may pass by but dont come in here..........man I sure hope he's right

one thing..IF the Euro is right..we can count on power outages all over the place...even if it just passes by huh...I should have bought that generator when I had the chance.

ok folks..any thoughts on IRMA?...enough from me lol

LargoFL wrote:ok folks..any thoughts on IRMA?...enough from me lol

Way too early to worry about anything. I noticed the local mets in Tampa are already hyping this storm up which is not good. It's still 7-10 days away from anything if anything at all.

rjla67 wrote:

LargoFL wrote:ok folks..any thoughts on IRMA?...enough from me lol

Way too early to worry about anything. I noticed the local mets in Tampa are already hyping this storm up which is not good. It's still 7-10 days away from anything if anything at all.

Thank you.

rjla67 wrote:

LargoFL wrote:ok folks..any thoughts on IRMA?...enough from me lol

Way too early to worry about anything. I noticed the local mets in Tampa are already hyping this storm up which is not good. It's still 7-10 days away from anything if anything at all.

I don't know about other mets, but Denis Phillips has not been hyping on his FB page. He is always very conservative when it comes to these long range models.

Very sweet line over Aug.....  he finally gets a good shower!  

sangria wrote:Very sweet line over Aug.....  he finally gets a good shower!  

Yes, my expectations were low but the blob gradually grew and overachieved. Doesn't look like much but the little booger dropped 1.84". First day of the month with 1" or above. I'll take it to close out August.

StAugustineFL wrote:

sangria wrote:Very sweet line over Aug.....  he finally gets a good shower!  

Yes, my expectations were low but the blob gradually grew and overachieved.  Doesn't look like much but the little booger dropped 1.84".  First day of the month with 1" or above.  I'll take it to close out August.

hey Congrats AUG on getting some good rain up there finally!!

OZ Euro now misses Florida,feels the tug north like GFS does......................

now its the CMC that has Irma Visit Florida in 9 days time.................................

9-10 days out..we cannot believe any model or track so lets wait a day or so after Labor day and see what the NHC etc are saying then...whew I got caught up bigtime yesterday in the storm hype,real glad I shut this off and stopped lol....we need to wait..they say 2-3 days in advance then maybe start believing.

this early Morning, lines of storms in the gulf, lots of lightning flashes from them,distant thunder too..

well better chances for rain today..good luck folks!...................................

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!!!!! and the 1st of September!!......well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!

some strong storms up in northern florida right now..here's one of the warnings................Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1112 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

FLZ139-239-011615-
Coastal Levy-Inland Levy-
1112 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY...

At 1111 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Trenton to 11 miles south of Fowlers
Bluff. the storms are nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chiefland, Bronson, East Bronson, Andrews, Manattee Road and Otter
Creek.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2958 8285 2958 8276 2956 8275 2957 8266
2954 8265 2954 8256 2948 8256 2948 8255
2907 8272 2920 8308 2959 8287 2959 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1511Z 310DEG 3KT 2957 8280 2923 8299

$$

TBW

no rain at all by me yet this morning,finished mowing the lawn etc so I can relax this weekend..might get some rain later today here.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
FLC083-011930-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0282.170901T1836Z-170901T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
236 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Marion County in northern Florida...

* Until 330 PM EDT

* At 236 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northeast
of Inverness Highlands North, or 11 miles northeast of Inverness,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Ocala, Lynne, Anthony, Santos, Ocala Airport, Silver Springs
Shores, Belleview and Lowell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2899 8234 2899 8235 2900 8237 2901 8237
2936 8227 2923 8187 2896 8210 2896 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 205DEG 17KT 2899 8225

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HESS

good Luck up there AUG!!..some storms are strong especially inland....

12Z Euro Model just came out....................................................................

Mmmmm 9/11 at that. GFS has it OTS.
Largo could you post more than one ensemble?
My nerves thank you.

Hi PuppyToes...here's the GFS ensembles,more spread out this afternoon,OTS maybe not...

these tracks from all the models will keep changing PT..its all guesswork right now..lets see what they say after labor day, maybe that tues/wens they might be a lil more sure on IRMA

AUG..your IN this warning..stay alert and safe ok...........................Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
312 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

FLZ033-037-038-012000-
St. Johns FL-Putnam FL-Flagler FL-
312 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS AND EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 312 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Saint Augustine South to near Pomona Park.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, Pomona Park, Hastings, East Palatka, Saint Augustine
Beach, Fruitland, Vilano Beach, Federal Point, South Ponte Vedra and
Crescent Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2939 8163 2951 8173 3009 8129 2978 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 215DEG 7KT 2984 8132 2950 8163

$$

HESS

Good afternoon All

Thanks again Largo for your updates. I have been super swamped and not able to check at all, so I appreciate all of your hard work.

Boy, it's sure been a hot and dry week down here by me.

Good afternoon and a happy holiday weekend to those who have Monday off. I do and will enjoy the 3-day weekend.

Thanks for the updates Largo. I was checking radar a few times while wrapping up the work day. Storms were in the area but skirted around me while blowing up closer to the coast. My mailing address is St Aug but technically I'm not. I live about 13 miles WNW of downtown. Probably around the equivalent distance between you and Dunedin.

San- thanks for the Denis Phillips heads up. I am now a Facebook follower. .

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:San- thanks for the Denis Phillips heads up.  I am now a Facebook follower.  .

If interested, Mike Buresh up here in Jax is another good follow. He doesn't have the "celebrity" status of some other mets but is very good at his craft with no hysterics. Also very active in the community. https://www.facebook.com/MikeFirstAlert/

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon All

Thanks again Largo for your updates.  I have been super swamped and not able to check at all, so I appreciate all of your hard work.  

Boy, it's sure been a hot and dry week down here by me.  

ok Billsfan we have 5 days or so then we really stay alert,hopefully she goes somewhere else

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon and a happy holiday weekend to those who have Monday off.  I do and will enjoy the 3-day weekend.  

Thanks for the updates Largo.  I was checking radar a few times while wrapping up the work day.  Storms were in the area but skirted around me while blowing up closer to the coast.  My mailing address is St Aug but technically I'm not.  I live about 13 miles WNW of downtown.  Probably around the equivalent distance between you and Dunedin.

ok Aug Thanks..some strong storms up there this afternoon,especially inland...enjoy the Holiday weekend Aug!!

well todays CMC and Euro bring Irma real close to Florida but keep it slowly moving northward,in the coming days I'm watching to see if the GFS starts doing that also..many days yet to watch this.

this afternoon's GFS model run takes Irma..straight into NY area and new England..............

again we cannot believe any of these models runs until middle to end of next week..im hoping Irma dies out or gets greatly weakened by something..i do know there's a pretty strong cold front/trough supposed to sink down the country..perhaps making it into the gulf...would that push her away from us?..or would it draw her to us?...I have no idea, so we wait this out...I went over my preps in earnest yesterday lol...im ready just in case, gassed up the car again this morning..oh gas went up again here..now $2.49 a gallon..gas attendant said it because of the Holiday..go figure..they always do this..

here is this afternoon's CMC model...again we cannot trust it to verify ok.....................

one small good thing from todays model runs..i don't see( so far anyway)..Irma going into the gulf.......but..many days yet for changes to happen huh...day by day we watch this closely.

I'm wondering if the mets down in south east florida are a little more concerned or not about next week's Irma?

well guess I'll say good night folks and IF your traveling for this long Hioliday weekend..drive safe and have fun ok..nite folks!

Aug. Thank you. I'll check out Mike's FB page too. I sure do miss the old WU days.

Largo - not sure if I want to thank you for those last runs kidding of course, I appreciate it no matter how awful.
I had to pay $2.69 for gas today.

Largo in response to your question, yes, Mets down here are talking about it often, stressing the good thing it's over a week out. But that's not comforting to me. Last I saw Irma is moving due west now. Which is not good, at all.

good early Saturday Morning folks!..rain woke my dogs up..raining here right now,everythings soaking wet once again....well enjoy the holiday weekend........i'll set the blogs COFFEE to perk for when you get here...enjoy..have a great day everyone!

Heavy Rains out there this early morning, stay safe folks...................................BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 2 2017

FLC101-021000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.W.0012.170902T0404Z-170902T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pasco FL-
1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Flood Warning for Urban Areas and Small Streams in...
Southwestern Pasco County in west central Florida...

* Until 600 AM EDT Saturday

* At 1150 PM EDT, emergency management reported flooding in the
Holiday area. The intersection of US-19 and Darlington Rd. is
flooded and cars have been getting stuck in the water. Up to two
inches of rain have already fallen in this area and additional
rainfall is possible throughout the overnight.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
New Port Richey, Holiday, Beacon Square, East Lake, Trinity and
Elfers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is
harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

well fort Meyers this morning there's heavy rain coming in once again it awhile......

so the overnight CMC and Euro models are saying next weekend could get Stormy east coast..

well the Euro rides up close to Florida's east coast and comes into Georgia/Carolina's...........GFS brings a monster Hurricane into NYC and new England...but as always..its too far out in time to believe the models...by this coming Wednesday they should begin to be believed I guess...what I'm watching for is both Euro and GFS tracks sort of coming together in where they come in IF they do still come ashore in the USA east coast....still too early yet to know.but everyone on the whole east coast should by now be going over preps and plans etc..just about a week away and none of the models so far..weaken the storm any...so far anyway