CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1023 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A weak surface trough, the remnants of an old frontal
boundary, continues to generate scattered showers off the Space
and Treasure coasts. Weak and stable offshore flow has kept most
of the showers away from the coast this morning, however, a few
are liable to get closer to land as the low-level flow veers more
northerly. With that in mind, have maintained a small PoP from
Melbourne south.

Drier air advecting in aloft has cleared skies over northern and
inland areas, so will make adjustments to those grids as
necessary. Otherwise, this morning`s forecast of higher cloud
cover over coastal areas from Brevard south looks good.

Weak low level cool advection should lower high temps slightly,
with mid 70s expected in the north and upper 70s across the south
half. Coastal Volusia should have highs in the lower 70s.

Tonight (from previous)...The GFS shows higher moisture dropping
south of the area as the shortwave trough axis shifts out into the
Atlantic. MOS POPs are only mentionable in Martin county, but the
HRRR and local WRF suggest evening POPs will be necessary in St
Lucie county also. Drier air and a slightly weakened onshore flow
should combine to promote slightly cooler min temps; near 50
degrees around the Ocala National Forest and mid-upper 50s
elsewhere, except lower-mid 60s right along the coast south of
Cape Canaveral to the Treasure Coast.

&&

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
130 PM EST THU NOV 16 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-162130-
Coastal Volusia-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line Out to 20 NM-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-
Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet Out To 20 NM-Seminole-
Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet Out to 20 NM-
130 PM EST THU NOV 16 2017

.NOW...

...Shower threat continues along the Treasure Coast...

Through late afternoon...an area of scattered showers over the near
shore Atlantic waters from near Cape Canaveral southward will slowly
shift toward the south. A few showers will continue to move onshore
from Port Saint Lucie to Jupiter Inlet...and possibly as far north as
Sebastian Inlet. Isolated brief...heavy downpours may produce up to
one quarter of an inch of rain in a few spots.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the local
Atlantic waters...and a Beach Hazards Statement is also in effect for
rough surf...a southward flowing longshore current...and dangerous
Rip Currents...especially near piers and jetties.


&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/blog

$$

LargoFL wrote:ok John..i just saw crime stoppers upped the reward for turning this guy in to $91,000...hope someone collects real soon and this nutjob is stopped.

Thats a lot of reward. Hope it doesn't send a bunch of degenerates into the area looking for someone to shoot.

Beautiful day today. Think I'll put out the rye grass seeds this weekend.

Good evening. Hope all are well. The quiet weather marches on......

StPeteFLwx wrote:

LargoFL wrote:ok John..i just saw crime stoppers upped the reward for turning this guy in to $91,000...hope someone collects real soon and this nutjob is stopped.

Thats a lot of reward.  Hope it doesn't send a bunch of degenerates into the area looking for someone to shoot.

Beautiful day today.  Think I'll put out the rye grass seeds this weekend.

wow I was thinking the same thing about that huge reward..all the crazies will be out now looking for him..hope no innocents get hurt..people there are really scared news says..i sure don't blame them...............

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!! it looks like a few really beautiful days ahead for us until this coming front gets here this weekend sometime...might increase any rain chances slightly once it gets here..other than the front no real weather concerns..our dry season is here and the nice temps too huh...well enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!

it seems some of the residents of Seminole heights over in Tampa are sort of troubled by all the police in what appears to be riot gear and protective vests etc...I have to say, for myself IF I lived there I'd be asking for More Police making a bigger show of force..keeping that Lunatic Killer underground and NOT killing any more citizens huh...I dunno sometimes I just don't understand people...yes in One way I can see maybe i'd be concerned if..armed police came to my door and wanted to check out my house..concerned that since they have No Idea what he looks like..What would they be looking for?..ok so maybe I see why some there are concerned..but my and my families safety must come first..and since the police are the professionals..i'd say let them Do their job and hopefully catch this nut job before he kills another innocent person...............how would YOU feel if you lived in that area?....

st pete...ive never planted rye grass...is it an all year round grass? or just for the cool months here?

WD-JR-ME and the folks on our northern gulf coast may want to stay alert in 5-6 days...........

Ok some models are picking up on something in the gulf later next week.........

Ok Euro also is hinting at a gulf something later next week.....................

For those interested, here is the lay of the land around here.  I'm guessing on JohnZ's commute.  Red dot is the area of concern.



The beef with the cops is that they're really cracking down in the area, and nobody is talking. Personally, I would welcome their attention, under these circumstances.

From the TampaBay Times:

"Indeed, as the Times has reported, police have made twice as many arrests in the area as they did over the same period a year ago. [Police Chief] Dugan told those gathered Thursday that updated numbers show that officers have actually tripled the number of arrests.

The chief said he has told his officers to pull over anyone who so much as rolls through a stop sign, though he said police are not necessarily issuing citations. He said they are making arrests, however, of people wanted on warrants or for other criminal offenses.

Dugan said officers want to be able to take a good look anyone engaged in suspicious activity.

"If you rolled through a stop sign before, we might not have cared," Dugan said. "But you roll through one today, we are going to stop you. We want to know who you are, what you are doing in this neighborhood.

"We have four dead people. How many bodies have to stack up before we put a stop to this?"
"

LargoFL wrote:WD-JR-ME and the folks on our northern gulf coast may want to stay alert in 5-6 days...........

This is what I was talking about a few days ago.
Looks like the Saturday after thanksgiving. Keep eyes open.
John Z-hills

JRnOldsmar wrote:For those interested, here is the lay of the land around here.  I'm guessing on JohnZ's commute.  Red dot is the area of concern.



The beef with the cops is that they're really cracking down in the area, and nobody is talking.  Personally, I would welcome their attention, under these circumstances.

From the TampaBay Times:

"Indeed, as the Times has reported, police have made twice as many arrests in the area as they did over the same period a year ago. [Police Chief] Dugan told those gathered Thursday that updated numbers show that officers have actually tripled the number of arrests.

The chief said he has told his officers to pull over anyone who so much as rolls through a stop sign, though he said police are not necessarily issuing citations. He said they are making arrests, however, of people wanted on warrants or for other criminal offenses.

Dugan said officers want to be able to take a good look anyone engaged in suspicious activity.

"If you rolled through a stop sign before, we might not have cared," Dugan said. "But you roll through one today, we are going to stop you. We want to know who you are, what you are doing in this neighborhood.

"We have four dead people. How many bodies have to stack up before we put a stop to this?"
"

You are close. I'm on the west side of 275 and travel hillsbourgh to 275 north to fowler then morris bridge rd.

John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:WD-JR-ME and the folks on our northern gulf coast may want to stay alert in 5-6 days...........

This is what I was talking about a few days ago.
Looks like the Saturday after thanksgiving. Keep eyes open.
John Z-hills

yes john we all will need to stay alert..you have fun up in the mountains ok.

yeah this time of year we watch all tail ends of fronts in the gulf huh. don't want any surprises catching us off guard.

whatever it turns out to be, looks like i'll be getting some of it..........................

AUG..the gulf thing crosses Nflorida into the ATL..and gets a bit stronger........

Thanks the graphics JR! That greatly helps me to know where you guys are all at

Thanks Largo for the updates! Keep em coming.

I already picked up the turkey last Saturday. 23 pounder.

I just need to pick up potatoes, squash, items for stuffing and pies and that's about it I think.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks the graphics JR!   That greatly helps me to know where you guys are all at

Thanks Largo for the updates!  Keep em coming.

I already picked up the turkey last Saturday. 23 pounder.

I just need to pick up potatoes, squash, items for stuffing and pies and that's about it I think.  

yeah we have been doing our shopping today off and on, we bought a 14 pounder, just the 2 of us this year and all the fixings we have already...hopefully the models will be wrong and we have a nice long thanksgiving weekend.

its probably the same where you folks live but here today all the stores are packed with people from all over the country..every other license plate is from another state in the parking lots I went to today lol.

surprisingly,even with the bumper to bumper people in the stores, everyone is so friendly today..i guess folks are feeling the holidays huh...

Oh man, was traffic noticeably much heavier today. By next week it'll be crazy.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Oh man, was traffic noticeably much heavier today. By next week it'll be crazy.

yes Billsfan already heavy around here,its that time of year again lol..bet the stores and hotels etc are getting happy.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
304 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
A mid level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida
Peninsula today will get pushed southeast tonight and Sunday
as a strong trough swings east through the eastern CONUS.
The surface ridge is currently positioned northeast of
Florida, setting up light easterly low level flow. This
surface ridge will drift south across the state today as a
cold front associated with the mid level trough approaches
from the northwest. Under this ridging, rain free
conditions with mostly clear skies will continue today and
tonight, with temperatures continuing to moderate and
running near to a few degrees above normal.

On Sunday, the cold front will quickly move southeast across
the area. Limited moisture will be sufficient to allow for
chances of showers and thunderstorms moving north to south
through the area, with the highest chances farthest to the
north. High temperatures will be cooler behind the front on
Sunday north of Interstate 4, but the front will generally
arrive too late to limit high temperatures to the south.

Good Saturday Morning folks!...looks like a real nice weekend for us so far...NWS is mentioning something from the gulf might affect us here in central or northern Florida Tues thru Friday but timing and exact location still hasn't been set in stone yet...im hoping I get some good rainfall,the ground is very dry........well have a great day everyone!!

Good morning. Here is the upcoming WPC rain forecast for the next 7 days with the potential disturbance.



Regarding murders, I had a gruesome one 1/2 mile away a few years ago. A guy murdered his girlfriend, dismembered her body, and buried her head/hands/feet nearby in what was an undeveloped area at the time but now has homes. Her torso was in the garage of the house she was living in. The house is now occupied by new owners. I could never live in a home like that knowing what happened there.

Anyone remember the 1993 Superstorm? I was in the midwest at the time but what a beast it was.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  Here is the upcoming WPC rain forecast for the next 7 days with the potential disturbance.



Regarding murders, I had a gruesome one 1/2 mile away a few years ago.  A guy murdered his girlfriend, dismembered her body, and buried her head/hands/feet nearby in what was an undeveloped area at the time but now has homes.  Her torso was in the garage of the house she was living in.  The house is now occupied by new owners.  I could never live in a home like that knowing what happened there.  

oh man that must have been an awful scene there Aug.

well my 7-day is beginning to show quite an uptick in rain chances..........................................................................................

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most ensemble members indicate that in the mean, the large-scale
pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the eastern states
through much of the day 4-8 period, limiting the potential for
significant low-level moisture return and severe storms over most of
the country. By day 6 some solutions continue to indicate an upper
low will cutoff over the Gulf, but models have not been consistent
regarding this unusual evolution, suggesting low predictability in
the day 6-8 time frame.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

Picked these off my tree about 20 minutes ago.  Yield was light this year (only a couple dozen) since I had to prune off half the gangly tree with branches sagging to the ground last winter.  What fruit I did have was huge though.  These lemons are the size or oranges.

Lemons

StAugustineFL wrote:Picked these off my tree about 20 minutes ago.  Yield was light this year (only a couple dozen) since I had to prune off half the gangly tree with branches sagging to the ground last winter.  What fruit I did have was huge though.  These lemons are the size or oranges.

Lemons

wow never saw lemons so large..congrats on that!!

TAMPA -- 
A drive-by shooting in Seminole Heights Friday night set off alarms for many residents. 
TPD investigate Seminole Heights drive-by shooting
One person detained after suspect vehicle crash
Police say shooting is not related to string of killings

I'm wondering, is Seminole heights a gang infested area or no?

well today's model runs still say a gulf LOW will come ashore in central Florida and cross over to the atlantic.its quite possible Thursday Thanksgiving might just be a windy wet one..guess i'll do all my outdoors stuff this weekend,our shopping is all done for the holiday meal...gobble gobble lol

Aug I was surely here in '93 but the storm doesn't ring a bell with me for some reason,

Biff: Why did the turkey cross the road?
Bob: I don’t know.
Biff: It was Thanksgiving Day, and he wanted people to think he was a chicken!
Joke submitted by Rachy Y., Waianae, Hawaii

Thanks for all your updates Largo.

Largo - maybe your area didn't get the Superstorm 1993 because you'd remember it. We had lots of damage here in Broward, lost power etc. It dumped copious amounts of snow where they aren't used to it. Awesome storm. As storms go.

Big lemons Aug! Every morning I have a low sodium V-8 with a lemon squeeze. Love it.

Good Sunday Morning folks!..it seems a cold front slides downstate thru today,bringing some cooler temps and a slight chance of showers in front of it.........models keep suggesting some LOW out in the gulf comes into and crosses Florida later this coming week..heed any local warnings when this happens ok...............have a great day everyone!

LargoFL wrote:Aug I was surely here in '93 but the storm doesn't ring a bell with me for some reason,

Maybe you were on vacation or slept through it, lol. It impacted the entire state. Pensacola area had 4" of snow, peninsula had about a dozen tornado's, 12 ' storm surge on the west coast, 100mph winds, many fatalities. Here's a little Wiki write-up about Florida.

Florida[edit]

The Derecho moves into the Florida coast during the overnight hours of March 13, 1993

NOAA estimate of storm surges along Florida's Gulf Coast, March 13, 1993
Besides producing record-low barometric pressure across a swath of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, and contributing to one of the nation's biggest snowstorms, the low produced a potent squall line ahead of its cold front. The squall line produced a serial derecho as it moved into Florida and Cuba shortly after midnight on March 13. Straight-line winds gusted above 100 mph (87 kn, 160 km/h) at many locations in Florida as the squall line moved through. The supercells in the derecho produced eleven tornadoes. One tornado killed three people when it struck a home which later collapsed, pinning the occupants under a fallen wall.[21] A substantial tree fall was seen statewide from this system.

A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida Panhandle to north of Tampa Bay. Due to the angle of the coast relative to the approaching squall, Taylor County along the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and Hernando County north of Tampa were especially hard-hit.[4]

Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m), higher than many hurricanes. With little advance warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13 by the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[22] More people died from drowning in this storm than during Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew combined.[5] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes.[23] A total of 47 lives were lost in Florida due to this storm.[4]

Jax NWS is talking about two lows in their discussion - one coming on Tuesday and the 2nd one Thanksgiving day. Both may bring heavy rain (at least here). May have to ask my aunt if she is willing to postpone Thanksgiving dinner to Saturday. I don't want to be driving 100 miles round trip in a deluge with the 5 month old grandson and my daughter.

Some sort of liquid substance briefly fell from the sky but has now ended. Looking at Tampa radar you folks over there may get something similar in an hour or two.