CLOSED 12-8 Florida/Alabama Blog - Southern Snow and Severe

sangria wrote:Hiya everyone!   Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!  I've been MIA for awhile with a family health issue, but should be around a tad more now.

I'm looking forward to the cold snap that is forecast next week - it will be nice to have a fire (if I am home to enjoy it).  Fortunately, all of my seedlings that have been left outside the past several weeks made it and didn't take a hit from that last little cold snap.  I will probably need to move them so they don't get burned with the possible 30's that will be close.  

I usually get spared the real cold temps since I am close to the water, but you never know.  :-)

Hiya Sangria..missed ya around here, glad things are calming down some in Real....yeah they are saying COLD sometime next week.

Good afternoon,

Largo, do you use Facebook and follow Denis Philips (met out of Tampa?)  Euro is showing lows in your area in the 20's.  Worst yet, the 12z Canadian has single digit lows for north FL, teens for your area, and mid 20's all the way down to bills.  Hope it doesn't get that cold otherwise the vegetation is going to take a serious beating.

Here's the CMC/GEM 2 meter air temps (surface level)......LOL Granted it's 10 days out but it ushers colder air in several days earlier - nothing like this though.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon,

Largo, did you use Facebook and follow Denis Philips (met out of Tampa?)  Euro is showing lows in your area in the 20's.  Worst yet, the 12z CMS has single digit lows for north FL, teens for your area, and mid 20's all the way down to bills.  Hope it doesn't get that cold otherwise the vegetation is going to take a serious beating.

yeah ive been going to all the met's sites, could be some real damaging cold temps next week..I surely must remember to wrap the pipes and faucets outside the house...could be a good Freeze coming...I was Hoping for just 30's but..some models are colder than that huh...well we'll see...hey AUG...let us know if you see any flurries in Your area..its going to be close,georgia might get snow if everything comes together right.

well good thing we have some days to prepare for this possible hard freeze coming.......Billsfan is hoping for a good freeze down there to kill off those big snakes they have down there....I have no idea how long a freeze it would take to kill them.

LOL old man winter said..I'll show you Global Warming haha

Will do Largo. Someone/somewhere has a phrase that stuck with me..... "cold without snow is a waste of cold". If it's going to be super cold at least let me see a few flakes! I'm from the north and have seen many a good snowstorm, icestorm, etc but nothing more than a few sleet pellets here in my 20 years although surrounding areas have had a wee bit of snow at times.

On a side note the coldest I've endured during my time in Florida was 19 degrees.  I believe it was the winter of 2010/11.  That one was quite cold. Killed my lemon tree but I've since grown a new one from seed in a more protected area.

As recently as 2014 I woke up to this one morning........

OMG. Uh let's hope the CMC is way overblown. I cannot imagine it that cold in Florida! On that note, I do remember 29 degrees in 88 or 89.

Largo. I forgot what they say. Maybe two days. But I realize a lot of plant life will be destroyed also.

NWS Miami.......Thu Dec 28 2017

...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Palm Beach County...
...Patchy Fog Over Western Interior This Morning...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
beaches of Palm Beach County.

Visibility: Patchy fog is possible over portions of the western
interior through daybreak this morning. Additional fog development is
possible over the interior again late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Continuing east-northeasterly flow is expected to bring a moderate
risk to all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week.

A strong cold front is forecast to move into the region early next
week, bringing a threat for thunderstorms across South Florida.
Marine conditions may deteriorate behind the front into mid next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Good Thursday Morning folks!..I cannot believe the news...Erie PA has received 103 inches of snow in the last 30 days...whew..wont be any water shortage up there when all this melts huh..all the lakes will be full......well next week for us in florida will get vey interesting,models still hedging on what day it begins..so we wait this out...looks like a nice day for us today...have a great day everyone!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Largo.  I forgot what they say. Maybe two days.  But I realize a lot of plant life will be destroyed also.

yes still some uncertainty in whats coming...I forget the year but one winter blast I lost almost all my tropical and my only orange tree...to this day ive never replanted the orange tree but did replace some tropical..lets see how long and what happens with this front coming next week.

well it would be nice if the weather was ok for new years eve huh.

NWS Tallahassee explains it best I think......................
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

All global models now forecast an amplifying eastern CONUS trough
and a much colder pattern across the Southeast during the extended
range. However, there remains some subtle but consequential
differences between the different models when it comes to the
finer details of the forecast. There`s good agreement at the start
of the period where a northern stream wave will move through the
Central Plains and Midwest while a southern stream wave moves out
of Mexico into the Gulf. These waves will result in an
amplification of the eastern CONUS trough and a merging of the
northern and southern stream jets over the Southeast. Thus, expect
an area of rain to overspread the Tri-State region starting late
Sunday afternoon and lingering through Monday.

The tricky part of the forecast is Tuesday night and Wednesday.
While all the models have another shortwave moving into the
Southeast, the CMC and ECMWF have a much more consolidated
shortwave moving from the Southern Plains east through the
Southeast. At the same time, the GFS has a much more elongated
feature which drops through the Plains and the Southeast at once.
The importance of this is whether there will be moisture present
across the Southeast (CMC, ECMWF) or whether the moisture will be
well into the Gulf with dry air over the Southeast (GFS). Should
the CMC/ECMWF solutions pan out, wintry precip would be possible
across the region. Though if the GFS were to verify, there`d be no
precip at all. This is certainly something to watch over the next
few model cycles as the details become a bit more clear. Either
way, the coldest air of the season thus far appears to be on its
way to the region early next week.

well the new 12Z GFS has most of florida all the way down to about ft Meyers in the 20's on the Friday after new years and 30's below that line for south florida..still a lil more than a week away..lets see if this verifies..but..at least we have some days to prepare out plantings etc outside for the real COLD that's maybe coming huh

Oh my Largo! Thanks for update.

I have 86 on my house thermometer. It feels hot as I spent four hours at a freezing cold Urgent Care Center today to get a diagnosis on my foot. I stepped on a rather large rock (in my flip flops) a few weeks ago at work. I was taking garbage can out to road. Anyway I presumed it was just slightly sprained but it seemed to get worse and worse. Finally bit the bullet and went today. Nothing broken, bruised and sprained only and in a walking shoe. But arghhh long wait, but it’s workers comp so can’t do anything about it.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I have 86 on my house thermometer.  It feels hot as I spent four hours at a freezing cold Urgent Care Center today to get a diagnosis on my foot. I stepped on a rather large rock (in my flip flops) a few weeks ago at work.  I was taking garbage can out to road.  Anyway I presumed it was just slightly sprained but it seemed to get worse and worse.  Finally bit the bullet and went today.  Nothing broken, bruised and sprained only and in a walking shoe.  But arghhh long wait, but it’s workers comp so can’t do anything about it.  

Ouch Billsfan,..I did that many years ago and yeah..it does take a long time to be able to put pressure on the foot but..it does..heal..are you home from work for awhile now?..i had to wrap the ankle after awhile, pretty tightly so I could hobble around lol..but anyway..i know what your going through..good luck ok.

wow 12Z GFS at Noon time,the friday after new years...has the I-4 corridor...at 29 degree's..can you believe that? LOL...aww still a lil more than a week away and can still change huh..in following the run afterwards..doesn't last long after that thru the next week after..so for just a few days, bitter cold....just want to warn everyone..it only takes bare skin a half hour at sub freezing temps to get frostbite..something we down here rarely think about huh....oh well right now here its beautiful outside.

Thanks Largo. Ive still been working from office. Came home early today though as my foot was really sore after the doctor poking, prodding and squeezing it. Have my leg up and ice. What I’m worried about is getting secondary issues with leg and back due to altering the way I walk. Good thing they are requiring physical therapy as it is Workers comp.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo.  Ive still been working from office.  Came home early today though as my foot was really sore after the doctor poking, prodding  and squeezing it.  Have my leg up and ice.  What I’m worried about is getting secondary issues with leg and back due to altering the way I walk. Good thing they are requiring physical therapy as it is Workers comp.

ok, I hope the P/T helps with any issues with the leg Billsfan, I didn't go thru that but..for awhile there, I too had a weak back pain sort of..due to walking no..hopping on one leg lol....hope I never hurt an ankle ever again LOL..one thing I did learn from that event..that I still do always today......looking down as I walk.

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!!!!!!!!!!!...I just checked the GFS and it seems its backed off..us having the extreme cold temps but a few area's in the high 20's and low 30's...but..its still too early yet..but this mornings local met is saying cold temps are coming mid next week...so we'll see how this plays out................anyone doing anything special for new years eve?...we are staying home this year....well have a great day everyone!

CMC model still saying in the 20's next week Thursday and Friday..we'll have to wait this out and see what the forecasters are saying maybe Tuesday ok...a bit too early yet to know for sure.

CMC does have the 20's all the way down in south florida end of next week.

I don't have the Euro with Temps..if anyone does..post thurs/fri ok thanks.

Snowflakes??.............NWS Tampa clipped from this mornings discussion.....................
GFS ensembles and ECMWF operations pretty much all show a good
intrusion of cold air behind this departing shortwave. If we are
going to see any sub-freezing temperatures at night to the north of
the I-4 corridor...it appears as through Wednesday night and
Thursday night would be the best candidates.

There has been some speculation in the past 24 hours about the
potential for snow flakes in parts of the Florida peninsula late
next week with the arrival of this cold air. First off, I think it
is very important to remember how difficult it is to get our local
atmosphere to support snow down to the surface. Given this
difficulty...snow flurries are an extremely rare event for our
region. Although a cold airmass...compared to what we have
experienced lately...does seem to be a good bet later next week, in
terms of return interval, and occurrence percentile, there is
nothing really special about the predicted airmass. Basically, when
it comes to chances for snow flurries next week...lets just say that
it is highly highly unlikely.

from the history books.......................
On Jan. 19, 1977, snow dropped all over the state, including a half-inch recorded for the Tampa Bay area.

Good afternoon. Early release from work today which is nice.

Hope you get healed up soon bills! I was in a plyometrics class in college and turned my ankle inward jumping off a 3' high box. How my foot didn't snap at the ankle is beyond me. Also blew out my knee another time in college with a torn meniscus and avulsion fracture of the patella. Broke a couple of fingers playing softball in my 30's as well. All good since but not sure how the body would recover today compared to 10-25 years ago should I have a mishap!

I don't think the sun has come out here in 3 days and it is getting chilly. Yesterday didn't top 55. It was 50 when I awoke this morning and has since dropped to 45 as of noontime with a thick overcast and a bit of a breeze. The cold is cutting right through me. Guess more of the same for the next week although tomorrow is forecast to be sunny and 65 which will feel nice.

yeah Aug, same here with the pain etc..I have a split in half thumb knuckle..expert said nothing he can do for it other than advise pain killer shots..cant do that rest of my life..good thing its not on my main hand but geez sometimes i forget and lift something..the thumb screams..Hello..remember..im broken and I for sure..will let you know about it ...oh well as we all go thru life...painful things happen...waited for my wife in the parking lot at Walmart and in sitting there..im seeing couples go in there..roughly my age..geez..after seeing what THEY are going thru..im lucky..have both arms, both legs etc..

just checked my local 7 day forcast..seems Monday night on..nightime temps 40's by me, 30's northward thru Wednesday..we'll see in a few days what it says about the strong cold front coming wens night thru the weekend,myself I'm watching thurs/fri for any heavy weather or freezing temps.

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017

...EXTENDED COLD SPELL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF 2018...
...HARD FREEZE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS ON MULTIPLE MORNINGS NEXT WEEK...

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017

...EXTENDED COLD SPELL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF 2018...
...HARD FREEZE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS ON MULTIPLE MORNINGS NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /Through Saturday/...
Weak high pressure was building into the region from the and
clouds were beginning to clear out across southeast Georgia.
Clouds will continue to erode from north to south through the rest
of the day and into the evening. Ceilings could redevelop across
portions of north central and northeast Florida overnight due to
moisture remaining below the inversion and weak lift around 900mb,
and this is forecast to hold temperatures in the mid/upper 30s
near the FL/GA border and low/mid 40s elsewhere. Patchy fog is
also possible across portions of north central Florida overnight.
Clearing is forecast across southeast Georgia, and temperatures
will get near the freezing mark overnight. Areas to widespread
frost is forecast and a Frost Advisory has been issued for
southeast Georgia for areas away from the coast late tonight into
Saturday morning. High pressure ridge will extend across the
region on Saturday from strong high pressure sinking across the
Northern Plains. Skies are expected to become mostly sunny to
sunny across the region, and temperatures will warm back to near
seasonal norms. Light west to northwest winds will prevail.

.SHORT TERM /Saturday Night Thru New Years Eve/...

Arctic cold front moves across the area Sunday...with very large
Arctic high pressure over the Plains nosing southeastward toward
our area. Cold air behind front will initially be quite shallow...
so guidance still has high temps Sunday mid 50s to lwr 60s. Widespread
cloudiness expected behind the front which will buoy low temps New
Years Eve night with mid 30s se GA...around 40 I-10 corridor...lwr 40s
further south and coast. Consensus guidance suggests low probs for
light rain on the cold side of the front, but not expecting anything
substantial.

.LONG TERM /New Years Day Thru Thursday/...

Monster 1055mb Arctic high pressure will move slowly southward
over the central U.S. while expanding all the way to the East
Coast Monday and Tuesday. Very cold air will spread southward over
forecast area... resulting in well below normal
temperatures...with high temps Mon and Tue 45-50 I-10
northward...50-55 south of I-10...with a possible hard freeze
interior se GA Mon night...with freezing temps down to I-10
corridor. Not seeing much to support precipitation other than low
probabilities for light showers in our southern counties thru Tue.

Models bring a positively-tilted shortwave across the area Tuesday
night and early Wednesday. GFS and ECM similar with upper
pattern... but ECM brings light precip further northward over the
colder air... suggesting potential for light freezing drizzle or
rain-snow mix northern fringe of precip I-10 corridor northward.
Leaning toward GFS solution with slightly more southward
displacement of precip given positive tilt of trough and better
upper support for precip over our southern counties. Will confine
low POPs to areas S of I-10 corridor for now...with chance POPs in
our southern counties and FL coastal waters.

Much below normal temps expected Wed/Thu...with hard freezes
appearing likely interior se GA and I-10 corridor W of
JAX...though some guidance suggest some potential JAX area. High
temps both days in the 40s to lwr 50s...except mid 50s
southernmost counties.

&&

WD when you get back let us know how it is temp wise in Your area ok..thanks

let me see if I can paste once again, somethings changed for me.

nope c/p not working

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
420 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
An upper level low sits over southeastern Ontario with broad
troughing extending over the eastern half of the U.S. A cyclonic
wind flow extends from the western Great Lakes to the mid-Atlantic
states into the western Atlantic. The upper low transits eastward
over the New England states through the short term period and will
be located over the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday evening. With that
being said, not a lot of change is expected over Florida as a
continuing west to east upper wind flow continues. On the surface a
weak front continues to wash out, while high pressure builds in from
the north. Some lingering low clouds can be expected through mid-
morning today, then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Rain-
free conditions, a northwest through northeast wind flow and
slightly cooler temperatures can be expected through Sunday before a
stronger cold front moves in the beginning of next week which will
bring some of the coldest temperatures we`ve seen this winter.

&&

Good Saturday morning folks!!...seems like we'll have a nice weekend weather wise then an interesting week ahead weather wise...local met so far isn't saying "teens" for temps, just 30's and 40's depending on your location for low temps...still a bit of uncertainty in the NWS discussions........well enjoy the weekend folks!!

Good morning La r g o and friends.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning La r g o and friends.  

hiya Billsfan..warmed up nicely now here..64 degree's and sunny after that cold morning.

Good afternoon. Another cloudy day here. It is just now clearing with a temp of 50. Forecast high was 62 but no way that's happening. Sun is already lowering in the sky and 30's on tap for tonight.

I suspect I'll see some nights in the 20's here next week. Jax has been slowly creeping the temps down day by day as things draw closer. Cold for us for sure but better than my elderly folks who will be lucky to see zero the next 60-72 hours.

For those who may have never been in frigid temps I can say 25 degrees feels "warm" after having been below zero for a few days.

StAugustineFL wrote:I suspect I'll see some nights in the 20's here next week.  Jax has been slowly creeping the temps down day by day as things draw closer.  Cold for us for sure but better than my elderly folks who will be lucky to see zero the next 60-72 hours.

yes I don't see any teen temps so far in the model runs..but..still some days off for the stronger cold front...for myself I'm hoping for some good rainfall by me.

well so far in my local 7-day forecast,looks like my area close to the water will only see one morning in the mid 30's all the rest in the 40's..but this can all change if..the CMC model comes out the winner..still early yet huh

Baynews9 met for the tampa bay area.................................On Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the north, clouds will increase from north to south. Highs will still be in the 60s. As midnight comes for New Year’s Eve and we welcome in 2018, the sky will be cloudy but rain will hold off.
Right now, it looks like temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60 at midnight Sunday night.
On New Year’s Day, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front in the Gulf; this will spread moisture our way and expect rain chances to increase especially the first part of the day and from Tampa Bay southward.
It will be cool for the first several days of 2018 with highs only in the 50s.

Hello. The fog has not cleared all day down here. Very unusual site.

Yikes Aug. Where are your parents?

NWS Melbourne....Sun Dec 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A lingering ocean swell will lead to a moderate risk of dangerous
rip currents at area beaches today. Check with local beach patrol
for the latest surf hazards and never swim alone. If you choose
to enter the chilly surf, only do so near a lifeguard.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Poor boating conditions will exist within the Gulf Stream this
morning, mainly offshore, with seas up to 6 feet. Small craft
should exercise caution if venturing into these waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Hazardous boating and beach conditions will develop behind a
strong cold front on New Years Day. Winds and seas will increase
further through mid week as low pressure develops near the
northern Bahamas on Wednesday and lifts northeast. An extended
period of onshore winds, large breaking waves, and unusually high
astronomical tides could lead to minor beach erosion and coastal
flooding, especially during times of high tide.

Well below normal temperatures are forecast through the upcoming
week. Overnight lows near or below freezing are possible across
portions of east central Florida later this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Ulrich