CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Nothing  for me, but I didn't expect any.  Anytime I see the word "interior" in the discussion,I know I'm SOL.

That made me laugh. I needed one. Thanks bills!

Nary a cloud in the sky here but that too was expected.

Glad to see some cashed in.

Even funnier Aug- it's pouring right now!!! Guess Mother Nature took pity on me . Loud thunder.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Even funnier Aug- it's pouring right now!!!   Guess Mother Nature took pity on me .  Loud thunder.

im glad you did get some rain there Billsfan!! congrats

NWS TAMPA...403 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected today...starting around noon then
continuing into the early evening. These storms will be isolated
to scattered with the highest coverage inland south of the I-4
corridor. Light steering will result in storms with slow to
little movement. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains with minor
flooding possible due to the slow movement...and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Myakka River at the Myakka River State Park...Horse Creek
near Arcadia...and the Peace river at Arcadia are in action stage
this morning. Water levels along these rivers are forecast to
slowly fall during the next couple of days. However any heavy
rainfall that may fall over these basin today could bring about
slight rises in water levels...so all residents living along these
rivers should remain alert and be ready to move to higher ground
should flooding be observed.

NWS MIAMI...347 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Along the Palm Beaches...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Again This Afternoon...
...Heat Indices 105F to 107F Gulf coast and Far Interior Miami-Dade...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: A lingering small swell from distant Hurricane Chris
will continue to bring a moderate risk of rip currents along the Palm
Beaches today.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
across South Florida today, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Coverage will be highest over interior South Florida
with late day boundary collisions. The main threat with any
thunderstorms will be frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable
of producing gusty winds, small hail, and funnel clouds.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible across all South
Florida waters today.

Wind: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing wind
gusts in excess of 50 mph.

Hail: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing small
hail up to dime sized.

Flooding: Slow moving and training storms will lead to the threat
for flooding of streets and poor drainage areas, especially in urban
locations and areas that have seen heavy rainfall over the past few
days.

Temperature: Temperatures in the low to mid 90s in combination with
high humidity will bring several hours of heat indices 101F to 105F
range for most of South Florida during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Values in in the 105F to 107F range are possible
across the Gulf coast and far interior Miami-Dade County.

Good Thursday Morning folks!! well NWS has my area's rain chances at 30% again today..we'll see how this plays out especially for you folks south of I-4..well have a great day everyone!!

Morning All,
Not much going on in my section of the state.
Had little bit of rain everyday this week. Not much .15 for the week so far.
Have a great day till next time.
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Not much going on in my section of the state.
Had little bit of rain everyday this week. Not much .15 for the week so far.
Have a great day till next time.
John Z-hills

Hiya John,good morning!! yes hopefully we get a lil rain each day or so,till the tropics heats up next month.

well in looking at the models. i dont see anything Tropical storm wise affecting Florida thru the 25th or so..we'll see what happens.

well had a lil rain here by me before, with some distant thunder too..suns out drying everything out here again

I bet WD's area is getting alot of thunder Booming up there now whew.............................................................................

LargoFL wrote:

quiet by you down there Billsfan??

Yep Largo, quiet, but cloudy and humid.

A little rain here at some point today...not really sure what time as the hours are bleeding into one another with work!

sangria wrote:A little rain here at some point today...not really sure what time as the hours are bleeding into one another with work!

well glad your area got some rain up there San!!!

NWS TAMPA...412 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected on the coastal waters this morning.
These translate onshore later in the morning then slide inland
with increasing coverage during the afternoon...with the highest
coverage late afternoon south of the I-4 corridor. Light steering
flow will result in storms with slow to little movement.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains with minor flooding possible due
to the slow movement...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Myakka River at the Myakka River State Park...Horse Creek
near Arcadia...and the Peace river at Arcadia will continue in
action stage today. Water levels along these rivers are forecast
to slowly fall during the next couple of days. However any heavy
rainfall that may fall over these basins today could bring about
slight rises in water levels...so all residents living along these
rivers should remain alert and be ready to move to higher ground
should flooding be observed.

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!!!...well my area got some rain once again last evening,and on the TV weather I saw John's area getting some good rain and up in Dade City THEY had a good storm sitting over them for quite a long time,,we'll see how today plays out..good luck to those who NEED rain badly ok...............well Blogs COFFEE etc will be ready when you get here..grab a cup and join in with us here ok.....................well Have a great day everyone!!

Morning. Nothing but hot and dry here. Sunny and 95 all week. The pattern changes beginning tomorrow and especially into next week with lots of rain in the forecast.

From Jax:

.LONG TERM...Mon through Thu...

A wet, unsettled weather pattern develops as the persistent
mid/upper level ridge west of the region breaks down enabling a
trough axis to carve southward across the SE region late Mon with
further deepening of the trough through the end of the week as it
lingers just upstream of the local area. This pattern will bring
deep layer SSW steering flow locally with very high deep layer
moisture content as PWATs rise into the 2-2.3 inch range. A
dominant west coast sea breeze regime is expected with an early
start to convection edging inland from the Gulf Coast region each
day, then overspreading the area through the day as it tracks
toward the Atlantic coast where an east coast sea breeze will
likely be pinned along or just offshore. Localized heavy rainfall
potential will continue as well as the chance of a few pulse
severe storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Nothing but hot and dry here.  Sunny and 95 all week.  The pattern changes beginning tomorrow and especially into next week with lots of rain in the forecast.

From Jax:

.LONG TERM...Mon through Thu...

A wet, unsettled weather pattern develops as the persistent
mid/upper level ridge west of the region breaks down enabling a
trough axis to carve southward across the SE region late Mon with
further deepening of the trough through the end of the week as it
lingers just upstream of the local area. This pattern will bring
deep layer SSW steering flow locally with very high deep layer
moisture content as PWATs rise into the 2-2.3 inch range. A
dominant west coast sea breeze regime is expected with an early
start to convection edging inland from the Gulf Coast region each
day, then overspreading the area through the day as it tracks
toward the Atlantic coast where an east coast sea breeze will
likely be pinned along or just offshore. Localized heavy rainfall
potential will continue as well as the chance of a few pulse
severe storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

good morning Aug, yeah last night my tv met was mentioning the dry air up along the northern sections of Florida..glad there's a change coming for you up there!! im trying my best to keep this blog going till something pops up and gets people interested

Good luck for rain, Aug. I could sure use some soon, but that "dominant west coast sea breeze" is not exactly my friend, though it can make for good beach days. I'm looking for a different pattern change.

I think I saw rain in you area around 4-5p there San.

Thanks as always for the coffee, Largo. Might need a special brew for Friday the 13th!

JRnOldsmar wrote:Good luck for rain, Aug.  I could sure use some soon, but that "dominant west coast sea breeze" is not exactly my friend, though it can make for good beach days.  I'm looking for a different pattern change.  

I think I saw rain in you area around 4-5p there San.

Thanks as always for the coffee, Largo.  Might need a special brew for Friday the 13th!

oh yessss!! i forgot..friday the 13th LOL

LargoFL wrote:

JRnOldsmar wrote:Good luck for rain, Aug.  I could sure use some soon, but that "dominant west coast sea breeze" is not exactly my friend, though it can make for good beach days.  I'm looking for a different pattern change.  

I think I saw rain in you area around 4-5p there San.

Thanks as always for the coffee, Largo.  Might need a special brew for Friday the 13th!

oh yessss!! i forgot..friday the 13th LOL

Morning All,
Friday THE 13TH   yeah!!!! 13 my lucky number never fails me!!
Had one heck of a thunder and lightning storm yesterday late afternoon.
It was crazy for about 30 mins. Streaks of lightning very close and thunder followed right after. Not much rain. .22 in the bucket. Temp was 95 and feels like was 113.9 yesterday. Whew!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Have a great day and weekend!!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:

JRnOldsmar wrote:Good luck for rain, Aug.  I could sure use some soon, but that "dominant west coast sea breeze" is not exactly my friend, though it can make for good beach days.  I'm looking for a different pattern change.  

I think I saw rain in you area around 4-5p there San.

Thanks as always for the coffee, Largo.  Might need a special brew for Friday the 13th!

oh yessss!! i forgot..friday the 13th LOL

Morning All,
Friday THE 13TH   yeah!!!! 13 my lucky number never fails me!!
Had one heck of a thunder and lightning storm yesterday late afternoon.
It was crazy for about 30 mins. Steaks of lightning very close and thunder followed right after. Not much rain. .22 in the bucket. Temp was 95 and feels like was 113.9 yesterday. Whew!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Have a great day and weekend!!
John Z-hills

yes John local met was mentioning your area and Dade city for the big storms..

well did some shopping, man it is HOT and HUMID today around here whew. I hope it rains by me today, cool it down a few degree's

NWS MIAMI...Fri Jul 13 2018

...A Few Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon Into This Evening...
...Heat Index Values up to 107 For Western South Florida...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Lightning: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon across most of South Florida. The highest storm coverage
will likely be over portions of the interior.

Temperature: Heat index values will reach between 100 and 105 this
afternoon over most of South Florida. Values approaching 107 degrees
are possible over western portions of the peninsula.

Wind: Some thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening will
have the potential to produce wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Hail: A few thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening hours
will be capable of producing hail up to dime size.

be careful outside down there folks in south florida...those heat index values of 107 thru the weekend,especially SW Florida could get dangerous if outside any length of time huh.

so it seems most of the good showers have moved inland...good luck to those who do get some rain today..so far nothing by me.

Hey JR, my "little bit of rain" was only .03"..... I'm closer to the coast than you and that damned WCSB always sets up too far to my east. Can you say #tollroad?!?!

Hardly a cloud in the sky all day. Ugggh
Got to 108 HI.. hubby is exhausted

NWS TAMPA...520 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the coastal waters moving
onshore early this morning and then becoming scattered to numerous
over inland areas this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze
moves inland. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and frequent
deadly lightning strikes.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day and
with a general southwesterly flow in place storms will be possible
during the late night and early morning hours near the coast then
the majority of the convection should move inland during the
afternoon and evenings. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

PRC

Good Saturday morning folks!!..any good Friday the 13th stories happening yesterday LOL..well it seems rain chances up somewhat in the Tampa bay area..40% chance i think they said..good luck to those who do get some rain..dry by me lately..........well have a wonderful day folks..enjoy the weekend

Morning all!

This morning's HRRR run - total QPF ending at 11pm tonight....

sangria wrote:Morning all!

This morning's HRRR run - total QPF ending at 11pm tonight....

good morning San..it looks like Aug's area might finally get some rain today!!

Morning. The morning sun was filtering through the cirrostratus canopy with a halo effect earlier but is now slowly eroding them. Looks like a typical mid-summer day on tap for most.

sangria wrote:Morning all!

This morning's HRRR run - total QPF ending at 11pm tonight....

I'm not sure if I'm a little behind the times or if this is something new but........... seems the HRRR on pivotal weather has 36 hour forecasts versus 18 for the 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z runs.

Hey Aug, you are correct!

"The experimental version HRRRv3 of the HRRR model has been run in real-time at NOAA/ESRL since April 2017."

Key features:
improved mesoscale environment for convective storms and clouds.
Less high precip bias for warm-season and cold-season precipitation
Improved 2m temps in winter including over snow cover.
Extension to 36h every 6h.
Addition of Alaska domain for HRRR

Kind of interesting though, that extension to 36 hour forecast every 6 hours doesn't look like it actually went into effect until 13 Feb 2018 based on a presentation given in 2017.  

RAP/HRRR Implementation History



01 May 2012
Ø RAPv1: Adoption of GSI, WRF-ARW and unified post
Ø Enabled use of community-developed software

25 Feb 2014
Ø RAPv2: Hybrid EnKF-3DVar data assimilation
Ø Significant improvement in upper-air forecasts

30 Sep 2014
Ø HRRRv1: 3-km Radar DA in WRF-ARW
Ø Significant improvement in convective forecasts

23 Aug 2016
Ø RAPv3/HRRRv2: Aerosol Thompson MP,
improvements to MYNN PBL, RUC LSM, RRTMG
Rad, Grell-Freitas cumulus
Ø Significant improvement in surface forecasts
Operational Implementations

13 Feb 2018
Ø RAPv4/HRRRv3: Hybrid Vertical
Coordinate, Eddy Diffusivity
Mass Flux PBL
Ø Reduction in short-lead biases
and improved mesoscale
environment
Extended Forecast Lengths
RAP: 03z, 09z, 15z, 21z 21 hrs à 39 hrs
RAP: All other hourly cycles remain 21 hrs
HRRR: 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z 18 hrs à 36 hrs
HRRR: All other hourly cycles remain 18 hrs
OCONUS Domains
HRRR-Alaska:
Every 3 hrs to 18 hrs
Every 6 hrs to 36 hrs
HRRR-Hawaii: ??

well no rain came in from the gulf here be me so far this morning, i guess another dry day here.

No rain at all for me either I see I have a whopping 10% chance .
Isn't this supposed to be the rainy season?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:No rain at all for me either   I see I have a  whopping 10%  chance .
Isn't this supposed to be the rainy season?

my guess is we need to wait for August and the tropical waves coming over florida