Late January through February outlook

Good Luck down there Billsfan..hope this storm system eases the drought down there for you folks!!

Good morning. What a difference a day makes. Up until yesterday it seemed the rain was going to be primarily confined to the southern third of the peninsula. Now seems the entire peninsula is in for .5 - 3" depending on location. My forecast yesterday had a 20% chance of a shower for tomorrow. Now rain tomorrow afternoon/night with forecast totals around 1"

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  What a difference a day makes.  Up until yesterday it seemed the rain was going to be primarily confined to the southern third of the peninsula.  Now seems the entire peninsula is in for .5 - 3" depending on location.  My forecast yesterday had a 20% chance of a shower for tomorrow.  Now rain tomorrow afternoon/night with forecast totals around 1"

yes indeed ..good morning AUG...it may be the actual LOW crosses florida bringing its rains farther northward as it heads to the ATL..i give credit to the GFS..it foretold this a week ahead of time..the storm i mean for Billsfan's area..the rains coming up here has fooled everyone lol

well 45 here now and in walking outside its like walking into a meat freezer brrrr.

I'm gonna follow JR's lead and do some shrub trimming. There's a row of Oleanders running the length of one side of the house calling my name. it'll be cool in the beginning but once the juices start flowing should be an overall comfortable experience (and in full sun!)

StAugustineFL wrote:I'm gonna follow JR's lead and do some shrub trimming.  There's a row of Oleanders running the length of one side of the house calling my name.  it'll be cool in the beginning but once the juices start flowing should be an overall comfortable experience (and in full sun!)

well once it warmed up some after noontime i did the cutting and raking all the lawn etc around the house etc..now im done and inside have a good day everyone!!

Brrrr! 50’s and rainy. I’m about ready to throw some long johns on. lol.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Brrrr!     50’s and rainy.   I’m about ready to throw some long johns on.   lol.

LOL Billsfan!!..at least your getting some good rain down there at last huh

well dogs walked and dried off lol..its cold but not too bad 45 degree's and raining here by me.....

wow 2-3 inches for most of us...some even more...................................................
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
315 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A cloudy, wet and rather raw Florida winter day is expected today as
a widespread rainfall event is underway. Shortwave energy in the
Gulf will aid in the development of an area of low pressure that
will move south of the region over the next 24 hours. Dense cloud
cover is expected area wide today and the majority of the forecast
area has a 100 percent chance of rain, some of which could be
locally heavy. Expecting 2-3 inches of rain for much of the area
although some higher amounts are certainly possible. Temps today
will struggle to get out of the 50s.

As the system moves into the Atlantic, high pressure will move over
the area again on Monday and Tuesday before another cold front moves
through the area Tuesday night/Wednesday. Limited moisture will keep
only a slight chance of rain in the forecast with this feature.
Behind this, cool high pressure returns through the rest of the
period with temperatures gradually moderating closer to normal into
next weekend.


&&

Billsfan..you have alot of warnings down there today (sunday)..stay alert and safe ok....................

well one GOOD thing about all these rain events we have been getting...this is our DRY season.

ok please let us know about Your area weather wise ok..especially if you have any flooding or bad winds ok,.,,thanks....ok now where is the COFFEE lol..BBL

Morning. Very light rain falling. .04" thus far but it didn't start too long ago. Might rain non-stop for 24 hours for many. There's a tight gradient with the forecast totals here between quite a bit and next to nothing. I'm hoping for the quite a bit.

NAM forecast rain totals through 7 AM tomorrow.

good morning Aug, yeah cold and raining down here by me with about 18 mph winds with 25 mph gusts..i see with that graph you posted im supposed to get maybe 2.4 inches..thats great for me...but a cold rainy day ahead into tomorrow..makes for a good day INSIDE for me except for dogs walking from time to time..stay safe and dry up there ok.

wow about 5 inches of rainfall around or near billsfan's area...thats alot but..it has been raining there since yesterday and this rain goes into monday mornong whew..wonder if there's a lil flooding down there with this??

You're in a good spot Largo. Most of it too should be a steady, persistent rain for hours on end. Just what the doctor ordered.

Not sure about flooding in SFL but I would not be surprised in the least with the amounts on top of what some areas already received.

Very icky morning, but it's hard to complain about rain. Upper 40's, that should get into the lower 50's. Rain looks to be for most of the day. Steady third of an inch since 4am, which is perfect. Hoping for some breaks this afternoon.
Yesterday was really nice once the clouds broke in the early afternoon. Got everything done I was hoping for, and a little bit more.
Saved a few indoor tasks (yuck) and more grilling for today.
Hope everyone has a good day. I'm keeping my eyes on next weekend. I hope that forecast holds for the mid 70's.

StAugustineFL wrote:You're in a good spot Largo.  Most of it too should be a steady, persistent rain for hours on end.  Just what the doctor ordered.

Not sure about flooding in SFL but I would not be surprised in the least with the amounts on top of what some areas already received.

oh yes, this is much needed rainfall for sure..although i dont remember 49-50 degree's feeling sooo cold lol..im staying indoors today for sure.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Very icky morning, but it's hard to complain about rain.  Upper 40's, that should get into the lower 50's.  Rain looks to be for most of the day.  Steady third of an inch since 4am, which is perfect.  Hoping for some breaks this afternoon.  
Yesterday was really nice once the clouds broke in the early afternoon.  Got everything done I was hoping for, and a little bit more.
Saved a few indoor tasks (yuck) and more grilling for today.
Hope everyone has a good day.  I'm keeping my eyes on next weekend.  I hope that forecast holds for the mid 70's.

hiya JR yeah but im watching wens cold front..might be strong wind wise etc.

NWS Miami...SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, waterspouts, funnel
clouds, tornadoes, and flooding to the National Weather Service
forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

wow it might get very interesting just after midnight tonight..whew...thats alot of rain if it verifies...

yes Nam model is also saying tonight is a good night to be indoors whew.................................

well it looks like the Nam model puts the actual LOW tonight/morning over or near Billsfan's area..............

(clipped) NWS Miami disc.........Looking a little further into some of the dynamics, there is a
Theta E tongue of moisture that moves across South Florida late in
the afternoon, through the evening hours. The wind field appears
to develop into a veering profile aloft. CAPE is on the low side,
struggling to reach above 300 J/KG. This could make for a low CAPE
high shear environment, which could lead to the potential for
some severe weather later today, into the overnight hours,
especially from around Alligator Ally, south. There may be
somewhat of a more northerly intrusion of chances into the Palm
Beach County area along the coast. This analysis seems to be in
good agreement with SPC and the placement of the area into a
marginal risk of severe weather around the afore mentioned times.
This may be bolstered this evening with a frontal passage, which
currently looks to be between 02z and 08z tonight. However, there
is still a good amount of uncertainty with the timing.

The main threat with the system later today looks to be wind, with
possibly tornadic waterspouts, and possibly isolated tornadoes,
which SPC is placing at a 2 percent chance at this time. Moderate
to heavy rain is possible, but the risk of flooding over SOuth
Florida looks to be minimal at this time, although some ponding
of roadways can not be ruled out under any heavy showers that
develop.

sure looks like WD's area this morning is getting some Good rainfall huh...............................

Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for all the updates Largo and everyone. I dumped 3:25 inches from the gauge this afternoon. The sun is trying to peek through, I’m sure it’s short lived.

JR you asked the other day about my new job. Yes, it’s in the same field. I just hope it works out well. Thanks for asking.

Good luck, Bills. We have the same hope for you.

Picked up to a steady light rain here. Now exceeding an inch.

Just some minor plumbing, and my list is complete. Just in time to watch the Pro-bowl with my eyes closed!

I did a bunch of laundry, bedsheets and all that, mopped the floor and now taking it easy. With a cold, adult beverage or two.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for all the updates Largo and everyone.  I dumped 3:25 inches from the gauge this afternoon.  The sun is trying to peek through, I’m sure it’s short lived.  

JR you asked the other day about my new job.  Yes, it’s in the same field.   I just hope it works out well.  Thanks for asking.

ah you DID get some good rainfall from this!! Im glad, i hope this eases the drought situation there!!

well almost 4:30 pm and still raining here by me, I guess this will be going on all thru the evening and night huh..just might..hit that 2 inch mark??

wow im sure glad our temps are staying above the freezing mark..wow what a snow storm THIS would have been huh...i seem to remember..1 inch of rain could reach 1 foot of snow?...imagine...how many inches will we be getting?.................................................On average, thirteen inches of snow equals one inch of rain in the US, although this ratio can vary from two inches for sleet to nearly fifty inches for very dry, powdery snow under certain conditions.

after i read that..somehow i dont mind an all day rain huh.....hmmm does walmart sell,....snow shovels here? LOL

Still raining here. Good day to do some baking and and catch up to yourself. I’ll take rain all day over the snow and cold

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
220 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today-Tuesday)...
Area of low pressure will exit off the east coast of
Florida this morning with skies gradually clearing across
the forecast area. High pressure will build over the Florida
peninsula today and tonight with cool dry air advecting
across the region. An area of low pressure will push across
the Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday with a trailing cold
front moving across the southeast U.S. and Florida. U/L
support will remain well north of the region with showers
ahead of the front gradually decreasing in areal coverage as
the front approaches west central Florida...with the best
chance of shower activity across the nature coast.

Good Monday Morning Folks!!..well rain has stopped here by me and in walking outside its like an ice box out there whew..45 degree's but hardly a cloud in the sky here..it looks like all the rains have moved over to the upper east coast..good luck AUG getting some good morning rains....well have a great day everyone and good Luck on the new Job Billsfan!!!

Good Monday morning. Looks like alll got a lot of rain this weekend. Well, neither the weatherman nor I saw the rain coming up this far north in FL, but rain is what I got. To the tune of 1.5" on Sunday. And it was a COLD rain. The high here yesterday was 45, and with the rain and wind it was a raw day to say the least. This morning the clouds have cleared out and the temp dropped to 37, but it is still really wet out and it feels quite a bit colder than it is.
This El Nino has really produced a lot of rainfall for my part of the state so far this winter. I have had 18.6" of rainfall since mid December! It is really wet all over the area and it looks like we have more coming this week. Temps look to moderate later this week, but I am going to hold off looking at anything more than a few days out as the models are having a hard time with the pattern.

I forgot I did have some sort of frozen precip on Saturday AM. My kids were outside feeding animals around 9 AM when they came running in to say it was snowing. I skeptically went outside to see what it was as I knew it wasn't quite cold enough to snow as it was around 40 degrees out. When I got out to the porch I could hear something hard hitting the trees and the tin roof. I put my hands out and I caught a couple of very small ice pellets. They were white in color, not clear, and about half the size of a grain of rice. I went in to get my phone to take a picture, but unfortunately  it ended before I could do so. I am guessing it was very cold in the upper atmosphere and this was some tiny hail, but I am not quite sure. Anybody else have an idea what this could have been?

waterdipper wrote:I am guessing it was very cold in the upper atmosphere and this was some tiny hail, but I am not quite sure. Anybody else have an idea what this could have been?

That would be my guess, light rain turned hail from higher elevation freezing. Interesting.

We got a steady two inches all day yesterday

Tornado yesterday in Hialeah
7 News Miami

PuppyToes wrote:Still raining here. Good day to do some baking and and catch up to yourself. I’ll take rain all day over the snow and cold

LOL me too PT

waterdipper wrote:Good Monday morning. Looks like alll got a lot of rain this weekend. Well, neither the weatherman nor I saw the rain coming up this far north in FL, but rain is what I got. To the tune of 1.5" on Sunday. And it was a COLD rain. The high here yesterday was 45, and with the rain and wind it was a raw day to say the least. This morning the clouds have cleared out and the temp dropped to 37, but it is still really wet out and it feels quite a bit colder than it is.
This El Nino has really produced a lot of rainfall for my part of the state so far this winter. I have had 18.6" of rainfall since mid December! It is really wet all over the area and it looks like we have more coming this week. Temps look to moderate later this week, but I am going to hold off looking at anything more than a few days out as the models are having a hard time with the pattern.

yes it sure has been a wet season this year but im thankful for the rain in my area.