Late January through February outlook

Jenny IF your lurking here..be careful outside when this line of storms reaches your area ok..stay alert and safe!

Morning. Hope everyone enjoys the beautiful weather. WD may have the best shot at some rain later as the cold front moves through. Forecast low here tonight is 51 which is about perfect.

Billsfan...Stay Alert Tuesday OK...............clipped NWS MIAMI............A frontal boundary will move back north into South Florida from the
Florida Keys on Tuesday leading to the possibility of heavy rainfall
especially over the east coast metro areas.

Here is the Cool Front that will stall out over South Florida and Keys...................

WD and AUG...if this run Verifies..gulf LOW runs right over you folks to the ATL..

I hope the GFS run is dead wrong, thats a flooding amount of rain,especially when the actual LOW comes ashore from the gulf

Thanks Largo for heads up for Tuesday. Hopefully it will wait until after 10 as I have a job interview early.
Hope everyone is well.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo for heads up for Tuesday.   Hopefully it will wait until after 10 as I have a job interview early.  
Hope everyone is well.

ok Billsfan...good luck ok!!!!

mid 60's by my area so far and a few wet spots outside..............................

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
323 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows ridging still holding
over the southern part of the Florida peninsula. At the surface, a
weak cold front remains across the southern part of the forecast
area, with just a line of clouds and a few stray showers lingering.
As we head through the rest of today, the front will stall over
south Florida as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. High pressure
will build over the southeast and into most of the local area, with
temperatures and dew points back to more comfortable levels for a
day.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, models continue to be in good agreement
in showing multiple shortwaves moving overhead. This, along with
easterly low-level flow and the stalled boundary will lead to an
overrunning set-up, with cloudy and showery conditions. High
temperatures will likely be held down a bit, but will still be above
normal.

Surface high pressure will extend back over south Florida Thursday
and Friday as more shortwave energy passes by to our north. This
will lead to lower rain chances and continued above normal
temperatures. The next cold front will then move through for the
weekend.

&&

good Monday Morning folks!!..a bit cooler here this morning, by me it feels great..how is it feeling by YOUR area this morning?...well enjoy!! have a great day everyone!!

gee a change...GFS has rain chances Upped Tuesday thru Thursday..hope no bad winds etc for us also.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
713 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Cold front is exiting the southern zones early this morning with
breezy northeast winds ushering in some cooler drier air. However,
this layer of drier air is rather shallow with plenty of moisture
aloft so from around the Interstate 4 corridor south we`ll
continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies through the day.
Across the Nature Coast there should be more sun once the high
clouds move by. High temperatures today will be closer to normal
ranging from the lower 70s north to near 80 south. Current forecast
looks on track.

&&

Good afternoon. Had .04" from the narrow line of rain that moved through yesterday. Unsettled weather ahead.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
325 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a nearly zonal flow aloft
over the region with shortwave energy migrating along the northern
Gulf coast. At the surface, high pressure is stationed over the
southeast, keeping a low-level easterly flow in place across the
local area. A weak frontal boundary is also stalled across the
Florida Straits. As we head through today and Wednesday, this
boundary will drift back northward as a series of shortwaves move
over the region. This, along with the easterly low-level flow, will
set up an overrunning pattern, with general cloudiness and increased
rain chances through Wednesday.

Weak high pressure will then settle over the area for the rest of
the week as more shortwave energy moves by to our north. There will
still be a slight chance for some showers, but rain chances will be
lower than the previous two days. Relatively warm and humid
conditions will continue.

For next weekend, a cold front will move into northern Florida and
then stall as we head into next week. Rain chances will be highest
for the northern part of the forecast area near this boundary, with
warm and humid weather continuing to the south.

&&

Good Tuesday Morning Folks!! well NWS and my local weather guy all agree on a 70% chance for rain today and rain possible tonight and into Wednesday..we'll see how this plays out...have a great day everyone...and wishing billsfan good luck today!!!

000
FXUS62 KTBW 261157
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
657 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Shortwave energy will continue to move along the northern Gulf
coast today while the front that moved through yesterday begins to
drift back north as a warm front. This combination will setup a
overrunning pattern with rain/showers developing across the region
today into early tonight. Current forecast looks on track.

&&

NWS MIAMI...Tue Feb 26 2019

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: There is a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly
this afternoon, across most of South Florida. The main threat is
lightning.

Wind: The wind across the Atlantic waters is forecast to be around 20
kts, which may cause hazardous boating conditions, especially for
small craft. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

John-WD-AUG.....get ready guys up there...hopefully just some good rainfall...

ok thats it from me..your turn, lets us know how it is in Your neck of the woods ok

The crawfish boil was a success plus everyone got to take home some as well. I have to say this group of 10 or so gets along well, no drama and everyone pitches in so absolutely no complaints! We’ve done New Year’s Eve, the Super Bowl and now this. Rumor has it a pig roast is next!!

Welp it’s cloudy and looks like rain with pressure steady at 30.19. Temp at 70 with 66% humidity. Nothing like a rainy or stormy day to induce the best nap ever. C’mon rain I’m ready when you are.

Been raining here since around 10 AM. Nothing heavy, but in that 3 hrs I have picked up 0.50". Looks like it is socked in for the day and will continue into tonight. Yesterday it looked like Wed was the rainy day and today was just some spotty showers. I wonder if the timing on the forecast was off by about 12 hours and today will be the rainy day, while tomorrow clears out. Only time will tell. Hope this rain sags southward so those who need rain more than I can get some.

Getting a steady half-inch per hour here. Definitely can use it.

WD looks like NWS lowered the rain chance tomorrow, unless this thing stalls

Excellent rain day. 2.5+. Slowing overnight and might pick up a bit more tomorrow.

Got 1 major hurdle to get over to nail my project delivery on Thursday. Fun times here -- I'm hoping for a short breather next week. I'm supposed to be at Spring Training, but most of that is already nixed. Maybe later in the week...

Thanks for keeping the train running, Largo.

We got about an inch today! Much needed.
Thanks Largo and everyone.
Sounds fun PT!
Good luck JR.

NWS MIAMI....Wed Feb 27 2019

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible across most of South
Florida. The afternoon, into this evening, is the most likely time
for development, with the best chances over portions of the East
coast metro areas of Broward and Palm Beach counties. Lightning and
ponding of water on roadways are the main hazards.

Waterspouts: There is a slight chance of waterspouts today for the
Atlantic waters.

Flooding: There is a slight chance of some urban flooding of roadways
and low lying areas for the east coast metro areas today.

Visibility: Fog development in the interior and along the Gulf coast
is possible tonight. Some locations may see visibility drop below
one quarter of a mile.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

An enhanced rip current risk will continue for Atlantic beaches
through at least Wednesday.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
333 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The first shortwave has moved over the region early this morning,
bringing an end to most of the rainfall. Just a few light showers
remain- mainly across southwest Florida. Another shortwave will
approach during the day today, with another round of showers
expected. The best rain chances through the day will shift inland as
low-level winds will be out of the southwest.

High pressure will build over the region on Thursday as a weak area
of low pressure passes by to our north. Rain chances will be lower,
but there will be a chance for showers mainly over the northern part
of the forecast area.

Another cold front will move into the southeast this weekend, moving
through the local area Sunday night into Monday and bringing our
next good chance for rain. Global models are still indicating a cool
down behind this front- fingers crossed.

&&

Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!..say that was great, everyone posted how it was in their area's!!!..the blog is alive and well !!!..yeah im thinking the timing of the rains getting here was a day ahead of schedule, but that all day light rain surely was what MY area needed, it was the good kind of rain, the soaking in kind..all the grass-plants and tree's are all smiling now lol.......well it seems the rain event will be moving inland and east coast later today and if NWS Melbourne etc are correct there could be heavy rain and possible thunderstorms etc,,but everyone needs the rain huh...well enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!!

well next storm is already over Pensacola..looks stronger today huh....

NWS Melbourne...457 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Development of the west and east coast sea breezes this afternoon
will lead to boundary collisions over inland areas and the
potential for thunderstorms through early evening. Storms will
build over the interior in the mid afternoon and push eastward to
the coast through early evening. Main threats today will be
frequent lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and gusty winds up to
40 mph in strongest storms.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk of rip currents will be present at all east
central Florida beaches today. The threat of rip currents will be
highest during the hours surrounding low tide in the late
afternoon and early evening. Always swim in sight of a lifeguard
and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A sea breeze collision this afternoon over the interior will lead
to the development of thunderstorms, which will move east toward
the coast in the late afternoon and evening. Mariners should
remain aware of thunderstorms approaching from the west, capable
of producing dangerous lightning strikes and wind gusts of 35
knots. Be prepared to seek safe harbor if storms threaten.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Patchy fog development is possible in the early morning hours
near daybreak Thursday morning. High pressure over the area
through the remainder of the week will limit the risk of hazardous
weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Smith

LargoFL wrote:Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!..say that was great, everyone posted how it was in their area's!!!..the blog is alive and well !!!..yeah im thinking the timing of the rains getting here was a day ahead of schedule, but that all day light rain surely was what MY area needed, it was the good kind of rain, the soaking in kind..all the grass-plants and tree's are all smiling now lol.......well it seems the rain event will be moving inland and east coast later today and if NWS Melbourne etc are correct there could be heavy rain and possible thunderstorms etc,,but everyone needs the rain huh...well enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!!

Morning All,
Yep was in Tampa yesterday and boy did it rain. When I got home
looked at the bucket it only had .20 in. Looks like the heavy rain never made it my way. That's ok today is another day. We shall see.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!..say that was great, everyone posted how it was in their area's!!!..the blog is alive and well !!!..yeah im thinking the timing of the rains getting here was a day ahead of schedule, but that all day light rain surely was what MY area needed, it was the good kind of rain, the soaking in kind..all the grass-plants and tree's are all smiling now lol.......well it seems the rain event will be moving inland and east coast later today and if NWS Melbourne etc are correct there could be heavy rain and possible thunderstorms etc,,but everyone needs the rain huh...well enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!!

Morning All,
Yep was in Tampa yesterday and boy did it rain. When I got home
looked at the bucket it only had .20 in. Looks like the heavy rain never made it my way. That's ok today is another day. We shall see.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

ok John, good luck, it seems today might be everyone's rain day whew..but we need it.

Glad to see most got some needed rainfall yesterday. I ended up with 0.80" out of the event. Looks like that line to our west is stronger today, but we will see if it holds together. I am thinking with the winds shifting out of the SW today and full sunshine this AM, a line might form inland from the West coast and get stronger as it moves towards the East coast. This should keep most of us from getting strong storms, but Aug and Bills might get some stronger T-storms later today/tonight as the line moves eastward. Good luck to all.

Well the rain started here about 15 mins ago. Much like yesterday, the rain is a nice light rainfall with no wind or lightning with it. Will be interesting to see how this line evolves as it crosses the state.

waterdipper wrote:Well the rain started here about 15 mins ago. Much like yesterday, the rain is a nice light rainfall with no wind or lightning with it. Will be interesting to see how this line evolves as it crosses the state.

ok thanks WD, i was hoping rain like yesterday and not stormy, im thinking the storms may get stronger as the go inland over to the east coast,if i remember the NWS discussions right..well hope everyone gets the much needed rainfall...rain hasnt started by me yet but its getting closer out in the gulf.

Billsfan and south Florida folks....NWS MIAMI update.........1029 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...
...FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST AREAS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible across most of South
Florida this afternoon into early this evening, except for the west
coast metro areas. A few of the storms could become strong with gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall especially over the east coast
metro areas where the sea breezes collide.

wind: The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up
to 50 mph.

Hail: The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail up to
nickel size.

Flooding: There is a slight chance of some urban flooding of roadways
and low lying areas for the east coast metro areas today from the
thunderstorms.

Visibility: Fog development is possible over most of South Florida
late tonight with some locations seeing visibility drop below one
quarter of a mile over the interior areas.

ok so maybe the storms might grow stronger inland and east coast..its a possibility huh,,stay alert and safe out there ..as the sea breezes and storms collide somewhere inland and maybe grow stronger.

Good afternoon. Quick drive-by as work has been hectic like JR. Glad to see all checking in! I had zero yesterday but a little moving through at the moment. Doesn't look like much but I have no complaints. In two days it will be March - summer is coming and quickly.

Shhhh Aug lol. It was very warm again today. Just had one minute of rain. Mike’s page says a cool down may be coming.