The Tropical Wave Train

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The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:18 am


The World wide tropical zones are heating up.



Lets take a closer look at home.

Hurricane Ernesto last night along the Southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Mahahaul Mexico as a Category 1 Hurricane.
Here are the stats of the landfall by the NHC.




LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF MAHAHUAL MEXICO
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

A Hurricane Hunter was en route to Ernesto prior to landfall but was plagued with equipment problems once again and was unable to transmit data to revel the true land falling pressure and wind-speed of Ernesto, but he did indeed put on a show.



At 04:00 hours Ernesto was downgraded to a Tropical Storm. He has done very well with his transition from sea to land and is making good headway across the Yucatan Peninsula.



Ernesto is expected to gain Hurricane status once again when he reaches the BOC later on today according to the NHC.



Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW
OF FLORENCE LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

In four (4) days the GFS shows 92l, as a small closed off low, tropical depression located over the Windward Islands and the African Blob starting to crank it up in the Eastern Atlantic.

CLICK to Animate pics below because I am to lazy to make an animation this morning.




The blob in question is looking very well this morning over land.



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

The blob currently over Africa may create some problems down the road. The models have developed this system for days now. We will see if the trend continues. Expect things to get crazy. Who in the hell said this was going to be a slow Cape Verde Season. Whom ever it was, may be proven wrong. But then again, maybe not.


Video from 28storms




Last edited by emcf30 on Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:42 pm; edited 4 times in total
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:33 am

OUCH..

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by GrillinInTheEye on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:40 am

Thanks for the update E. You've been busy this morning. I know it's early but any thoughts on 92L?

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:55 am

GrillinInTheEye wrote:Thanks for the update E. You've been busy this morning. I know it's early but any thoughts on 92L?


Thanks Grill.

Have not dove to much into it yet but I believe it will move into the Caribbean similar to what Ernesto did. 92L is going to be moving through a area of strong wind shear ahead of it so don't expect any crazy development as it moves into that area of shear. But after that, I have not looked at it.

Look at the shear in the Windward Islands at the 96 hour mark. ( All the nice looking bright colors are NOT good )



But, the Early cycle track guidance and the Early cycle intensity guidance indicate otherwise. I am not betting against the shear at the moment.





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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by sangria on Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:00 am

Thanks e!! The wave train keeps a comin..... wave 92L looks a bit disheveled this morning!! Waiting for the be "big un" to come off the coast!!

Will it come off as a TD?
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by Tropic Bunker on Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:12 am

Thanks e! Better get your rest while you can. It's "All Aboard" time. Shocked
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:16 am

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by sangria on Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:30 am



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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by sangria on Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:59 am

I just can't help, but to be impressed by the cloud tops on the next wave.....the last frame.....

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:13 am

One would have to think if Ernesto will even make it fully back over water based on its current track





Just sayin
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by scouter534 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:39 am

Thanks for the update E. Great job as usual. BTW, I do not like the model run in your first comment, please remove it. lmao

Just wait, it gets better.



We all may have to haul ass to San's house
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by sangria on Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:23 am

Please make an advance reservation on e's arc, for pick- up........Package deal available for transport/accommodations.......
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:35 am

sangria wrote:Please make an advance reservation on e's arc, for pick- up........Package deal available for transport/accommodations.......

Please do, I got 3 suites left in the Harem Wing.



Plus, the pool is complete so if we sail before the cloud deck gets here you can take full advantage of the amenities.

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by scouter534 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:55 am

Nice Ark. That model comes true, we may need it.
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by sangria on Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:08 am

LMAO dude!!!
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:10 am

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:12 am

Just what I thought earlier this morning.



Not anticipated to make it that far off of land to re-strengthen at the moment.
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by Seawall on Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:57 am

Looks like it might just make it to the EPAC.....
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:00 pm

I wish this storm would make up it's mind. LOL



Now it looks like it is coming out further North

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:23 pm

Check this out. This is the FB page for Hurricane Josh from amwx. He went to Chase Ernest and is reporting back live information. He is one of my friends on FB. Here is his community page. Like it and check it out

http://www.facebook.com/iCyclone?ref=stream
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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:04 pm

We have take off



Heading South to Ernesto



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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:57 pm

HH starting their decent into the center

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:18 pm

Look at the blow up of storms over Ernesto. HH hunters finding almost Hurricane strength again. Approaching 65 mph at surface, 80 @ flight.
Look at the difference in the cloud deck from the image above.



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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:21 pm



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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:22 pm

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Re: The Tropical Wave Train

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