Ernesto and Friends

The TROPICS

Good morning. just a quick update on the tropics this morning which promises to get very busy over the next couple of weeks.

Video update and forecast.



ERNESTO



Tropical Storm Ernesto exited the West Yucatan late night and quickly started to regain strength. Hurricane Hunter Aircraft was there waiting when he made his exit off the coast.

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1002mb (Surface) 100° (from the E) 61 knots (70 mph)
974mb 100° (from the E) 74 knots (85 mph)
962mb 105° (from the ESE) 72 knots (83 mph)
953mb 100° (from the E) 77 knots (89 mph)
939mb 105° (from the ESE) 76 knots (87 mph)
924mb 115° (from the ESE) 82 knots (94 mph)
854mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)
843mb 130° (from the SE) 77 knots (89 mph)

While Ernesto appears to be strengthening over the far southern Bay of Campeche this morning, he will be making landfall in a few hours once again. The National Hurricane center has changed it's intensity forecast back up to Hurricane strength at landfall.



It has been discussed that there is a slight possibility of Ernesto making a crossover to the Pacific. There has been model support of this occurring.



92L



92L is the next feature that needs to be watched for development. This feature is close to Tropical Depression status. This should become TD7 sometime today and slowly strengthen to Tropical Storm Gordon over the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center currently has this at 70% chance of development into a cyclone within the nest 48 hours.



As you can see, 92L is somewhat impressive for an invest. Nice blowup of convection over the circulation, which is obvious in the satellite loops, and good banding features becoming established. As with Ernesto, the models are split as to where he will end up.



The GFS Ensembles are grouped together for the first couple of days and then become widely split after day 3 or so. The indicated anywhere between South America to the Northeast United States.



All the models agree that 92L will become Tropical Storm Gordan on the next couple of days unless, the African wave beats it to the punch. Which is entirely possible.



Florence

Producing a nice little blowup of storms this morning but the NHC gives it neat 0% of development. NEXT



AFRICAN WAVE

This is the feature that truly, has the potential to became a significant Hurricane.

The wave has been very very impressive during it;s travels across the African Continent and already has a decent area of low pressure and even some banding or inflow channels into the low. This will be over water very soon and will be something to watch right out of the box.



The Global models, particularly the GFS has been showing doom with the wave for days. This will be very interesting to watch.

Various model runs will be posted in a bit.

Great update E, thanks.

Thanks Scout.

Moisture from tropical wave over Florida, or what ever some of the models have spin up from the left over energy from Ernesto. LOL

Great update e! we need to keep our eyes on that wave, looks to have bad intentions!

Another great update e!! Thanks for all the work you put into these!!

Do any of the models still show a "low" developing in the Carib this weekend, and moving into the Gulf?

sangria wrote:Another great update e!! Thanks for all the work you put into these!!

Do any of the models still show a "low" developing in the Carib this weekend, and moving into the Gulf?

Not really anymore san. The CMC is bouncing from the GOM to Florida East coast.

The GFS has totally dropped the African Wave from any development in the last few runs. Wounder what's up with that. They are now developing the two after that one. Crazy

(EDIT) Nevermind my statement above. LOL. Spoke to soon

Still looks decent. Nice band to the West
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 94.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren

invest_al072012.invest

AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 07, 2012, DB, O, 2012080700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL072012
AL, 07, 2012080600, , BEST, 0, 116N, 225W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 07, 2012080606, , BEST, 0, 116N, 235W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 07, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 116N, 245W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 07, 2012080618, , BEST, 0, 116N, 255W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 07, 2012080700, , BEST, 0, 117N, 266W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080706, , BEST, 0, 118N, 278W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080712, , BEST, 0, 118N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080718, , BEST, 0, 121N, 312W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 127N, 325W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080806, , BEST, 0, 133N, 339W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080812, , BEST, 0, 139N, 354W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 141N, 370W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 141N, 385W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080906, , BEST, 0, 139N, 400W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Thanks for the updates, e; I was late getting to them!

LOL, No TD7. On rare occasion the NHC decides not to go with the ATCF reports and analysis.

Today, this is one such case. There is no official TD7 and the NHC continues Invest 92L. Trying to pull a Ernesto and it has not even developed yet. WTF

These storms coming through MS and AL look pretty bad. Think we might see some damage as this line heads toward I-20

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.40652173913043477&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DGX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=467.5&map.y=188.5¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1

Holy Shiz. Got to watch this. It is off topic but..............
There is a little blood shown after the crash.

NHC dippin into the Crayola box, while still over land.......



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO.

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

2. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

3. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN/BERG
NNNN

Ernesto looks like he has started to ride the coast a bit.........

Looks like this time the RENUMBER for 92L will stand......It is up on the Navy site, as well.....

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WTNT42 KNHC 092036
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

LOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO
WARRANT THE DESIGNATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041...WHICH THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS NEAR OR
OVER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AS THE LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 17 KT. AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Ernesto

Orographic Lift along Higher Terrain in Mexico is enhancing Heavy Rainfall and the the threat for Flash Flooding from Ernesto








TD7









* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN AL072012 08/10/12 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 43 43 46 48 53 56
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 43 43 46 48 53 56
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 37 39 39 39 39 41 45 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 12 13 14 26 19 23 16 19 13 12

93L









Tropical Wave Flo



Chances of rain increasing over the Florida Peninsula over the weekend

The 2PM Discussion is lengthy....the wave off of Africa (93L) has been dropped to 30%






000
AXNT20 KNHC 101759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO AT 10/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 18.0N 99.2W. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE INLAND MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS
ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NEAR
17N104W...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN MEXICO AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W AT 10/0715 UTC.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN THOSE AREAS. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.7N 49.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W...THROUGH THE 20W/21W TROPICAL WAVE TO 14N21W 9N30W
AND 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO COASTAL FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND
30W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE
MOVING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND IN GUYANA AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W...MOVING AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 86W.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE REST OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW RESULTS FROM THE 32N88W TO
28N88W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N88W TO
28N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 82W AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO.

FROM FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N83W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE 21N83W CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 10N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N86W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND
FLOW RESULTS FROM NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N50W 24N52W 18N55W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W...
TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 84W IN NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N52W 18N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W...AND FROM
22N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N38W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N47W...TO 31N69W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

TD7



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IT IS
UNCLEAR IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS DUE TO THE RAPID
WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A
30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A RAPID 275/21. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED
BY THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION NEAR THE
48 HR POINT.

GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.0N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.2N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.4N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 14.6N 67.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED



93L looks to be going POOF

The great apocalyptic hypercane that was going to blast the east coast a few days ago on the GFS 300 hour + model runs didn't come to be. What do we do now?

wait?

HH: Air Force 307 to Base:
Base: Go ahead AF307
HH: WE have been flying around in circles all freakin morning trying
to find a closed circulation and can't find Crap.
Base: Keep trying, it has got to be there somewhere, it passed over a
buoy last night with 30knot winds.
HH. But But.........................
Base: Keep flying
HH: But we are all getting dizzy up here. I did not sign up for this crap.

bwaaahahahahaha

Hold on to your hats peeps.....we now have animated .gifs for all of the imagery, and not just the floaters......

KUDOS to the NHC for the animations!

sangria wrote:Hold on to your hats peeps.....we now have animated .gifs for all of the imagery, and not just the floaters......

Not quite yet but it's apparent that's the direction they're headed.

DOOM

Look out Bermuda!

On a serious note, what happened to the Bermuda High? A week ago the "pattern" was set in some circles but to me seems the high is weakening and should promote recurves from the east ATL for any CV systems among other variables.

The earlier season home grown prediction is looking good methinks. Sept/Oct might be interesting for anything festering in the WCARB/GULF.

StAugustineFL wrote:Look out Bermuda!

On a serious note, what happened to the Bermuda High? A week ago the "pattern" was set in some circles but to me seems the high is weakening and should promote recurves from the east ATL for any CV systems among other variables.

The earlier season home grown prediction is looking good methinks. Sept/Oct might be interesting for anything festering in the WCARB/GULF.

Trough after trough weakening the High. There were some places that had record lows for the past couple of mornings from the latest trough. Just North of Nashville, my Aunt was in the low 50's for the past couple of mornings. Low tonight, 56. Western Caribbean and GOM are the real danger zones now. With this type of pattern, no where to go but Northward.

Thanks E. Was just checking out my "home" forecast in MO and after a brief warm up mid-week there's a cool off in store late week with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's. Quite the difference from the 100-105 daytime temps while I was there two weeks ago. The troughs are digging for sure.

Good Morning peeps!!

I do not know where to grab images that can be saved on the model runs, but it looks like the GFS Operational 18z 00z and 06z all show something spinning up in the BOC around the 17th, and headed north....two of the runs show a low headed toward far NE Gulf/FL panhandle area....and one model shows the low running north into south TX....All three runs show the Low near landfall around 8/20 or 8/21.

e....can you look at the models and see if this description looks accurate, or not, or somewhere in between....lol? I did not see anything on either the GFS or Euro ensembles, though..... and as a side note...I don't generally look at the models, and am not well versed with them!!!!

You are correct San.

The GFS has been showing development for the past several runs. This latest run would been the perfect scenario for the states that have been plagued by the drought, but, I would not count on it happening this way.

Thanks e!!!

How reliable are the operational models in comparison to the ensemble? Don't quite understand how the operational can show three runs with a Low, and I could not see one moving into the Gulf on the ensemble.....

And close to home.....here in New Port Richey, FL it is flippin hot and sticky!!!!

Kinda off topic and E, I know you HATE this map....lol, but there may be some relief to the extremely drought stricken areas of the midwest.

Look at the big ole long Bermuda High.....

Go west young man!!!

Got a little bump up to 50% on the TWO....

The Bermuda High is large and in charge!

Why is everyone posting in a old blog??????

LOL....My bad!!! somehow, I posted in the wrong blog this morning.......Damn!!!