Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Just got home from a little shopping...

First - Gas has jumped a total of $0.40 here, it is $2.69/gallon

Second - Go get water now.  Multiple stores up here are already sold out.  I'm guessing folks are really paying attention to the tropics now.

Plenty of water at ALDI. Have it by the pallet. Also check Rural King or Target.

5pm NHC south florida is now in the cone...............................................

Irma is now a Cat-4 hurricane.........................................................

12Z JMA model still says in the gulf and up to the panhandle of florida................

EPS ensemble and GEFS ensemble both say gulf also,so nothing in stone yet ok.......

SAN we are in the TS force wind cone on Friday.......................................

I'm noticing the cones aren't bending more back to the atlantic side of florida so far..lets see tomorrow's cones

gee Friday night still at 135mph winds with higher gusts I bet...prepare folks.....

This strikes me as a bit premature...

Scott declares state of emergency ahead of Irma

sangria wrote:This strikes me as a bit premature...

Scott declares state of emergency ahead of Irma

I think that's to prevent price gouging etc..to bad it doesn't apply to gasoline sales huh

nothing written in stone yet, still days away from Florida

just want to mention this,Navgem also into the gulf and real close to tampa bay oh oh..

possibly thurs night or Friday or as late as Saturday there should be some Hurricane watches put out..warnings don't occur until 36 hours out from florida

ok 18Z GFS still coming ashore into south Florida.....................................

too much for me lol..good night folks.

Not too much but get some rest! You're going to need it

As billsfan said, it's gonna be a long week. Let's all hope for a shift EAST in the next couple of days. Time will tell. Plenty of it for things to change.

I don't think east is an option? I'm hoping south? Maybe Cuba's mountains can rip it apart a bit. ?? Grasping at straws at this point.

And that said. I feel awful wishing it go anywhere.

good morning! all the overnight models bring Irma up thru florida..here's Euro.........

well unless the models change thru the next several days..we will have a hurricane here gee.

omg its 150mph sustained winds right now..............................................WTNT31 KNHC 050846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 150
MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Lord please make this storm go away

ok clipped from NWS Tampa's discussion this morning....................................................The big change will come this weekend with the location of Hurricane
Irma. Models are in good agreement with the storm moving westward
placing it south of the Bahamas by Saturday morning and further
westward located in the Florida Strait near the Florida Keys by
early Sunday morning. At that time, from Sunday morning to Monday
morning is where the models diverge. The GFS and ECMWF take the
storm along the entire west coast of Florida, but the GFS is much
faster placing the storm over central Georgia by Monday afternoon,
while the ECMWF lags it behind over central Florida. We are still
out 5 days from any significant threat from Hurricane Irma, but the
one thing for certain will be an increase in wind speed beginning on
Friday with northeast winds in the 10-15 knots range, then further
increasing to small craft advisory level with winds reaching 25-30
knots late Saturday evening and continuing into next week. So, a
typical summertime pattern can be expected until the weekend when we
start to see the effects of Hurricane Irma as it continues to track
west. We will continue to track this storm very closely over the
coming days.

&&

so if I remember right, IF Irma goes up the west coast of Florida, the Bad side of the storm is on its right side,all of Florida should be preparing,this is the storm..all our lives..we feared huh..but hopefully..by Friday maybe..it will be going somewhere else..but the models are sort of coming to agreement,sort of...still a few days yet to see,if that ridge doesn't weaken fast enough..it could keep the storm going west into the gulf? some guy said, the storm is huge,bigger than the state of florida he said..so..it the track holds..we all will get some of this...so far anyway...ok enough from me..yeah I'm scared too.

folks 6Z GFS has changed a little,now it goes up the east coast of Florida.........

I guess we will just have to wait till this weekend to know for sure where its going,but it seems with the GFS speeding up a little..now it goes into the Miami area sometime sunday now..stay stuned and prepare folks.

one site has this warning for the islands down there.......................................The bottom line - Irma is an extremely dangerous hurricane. Those within her 24 hour path should now be rushing life-saving preparations to completion. Surge prone low lying areas will likely become inundated. Even well built structures may sustain crippling damage from the wind and be uninhabitable for weeks, or longer.

Good morning all! Model watching continues with little change at this point.

Irma is a Cat 5.....



WTNT41 KNHC 051200
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Irma.

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently
measured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds
of around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has
been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still
possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.

No change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as
an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by
life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings
are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations
should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are
expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning
tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early
tomorrow.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later
this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend.  Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States.  However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1200Z 16.7N  57.7W  150 KT 175 MPH
12H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.9W  155 KT 180 MPH
24H  06/0600Z 17.7N  61.5W  150 KT 175 MPH
36H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
48H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
72H  08/0600Z 21.2N  72.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  09/0600Z 22.4N  77.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W  130 KT 150 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

omg a cat-5, this is a monster storm for sure,still a slight chance this doesn't go right over and up the state,gee ,if it does this will be a disaster and it seems it will stay at least 150mph thruout its trip here...I cant imagine what the gusts would be..170-180?..lets see how this plays out,by Friday I suspect we'll have the true picture of where its going and what we can expect.......I notice NWS thinks the GFS will be a bit Faster than the Euro, all eyes ON this storm for sure...don't want any surprises in speed and track huh.

My God. Largo how far are you from Gulf? Will you leave or board up? I'm not on an evacuation route but this is chilling me to the core.

This girl is not playing....Take Irma serious

PuppyToes wrote:My God. Largo how far are you from Gulf?  Will you leave or board up? I'm not on an evacuation route but this is chilling me to the core.

hi I'm about 4-5 miles from the gulf..we decided to stay and board up the house etc as best we can..yes I'm scared,what a horrible storm this is.,im not worried about storm surge or flooding rains, I'm high enough,its this horrible wind speeds that scares me.

folks...OMG...hurricane hunters found get this..170mph winds in Irma...per mikes weather page...those islands are going to get total destruction where ever this goes over land.

can you imagine..with 170mph winds sustained..what the Gusts would be?...folks..we are living thru a history making storm.

Yeah we're 5 miles away too and we are high as well and not worried about surge. Thing is with Irma being as strong as she is, there might be a mandatory evacuation in this case. This storm just became REAL!

Good morning. GULP.....

This is downright frightening!

omg its getting stronger still..................................................................................

PuppyToes wrote:Yeah we're 5 miles away too and we are high as well and not worried about surge. Thing is with Irma being as strong as she is, there might be a mandatory evacuation in this case. This storm just became REAL!

lets see what they are saying Friday,by then they should know for sure where its going and gulp..how strong it may be when it and if it gets..over us here.

remember don't take these tracks as a given ok..probably day to day changes still possible,they still cant pin down exactly where she will be going.

Ok Largo. Friday is a long ways away. Hopefully my nerves and heart will hold up until then. Thanks for the reassurance.

PuppyToes wrote:Ok Largo. Friday is a long ways away. Hopefully my nerves and heart will hold up until then. Thanks for the reassurance.

ok, we still have a few days,prepare and wait is all we can do ok.

Levi Cohen at tropical tidbits.com......................An Air Force recon plane just measured 182 mph flight-level winds and 173 mph estimated surface winds in #Irma's NE eyewall. That's extreme.

Yep Largo, here is the data from the file:

07 NOAA
NOAA2 Sep. 5th
12:44:30Z
Tuesday
(Today)

Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure 929.1 mb (27.44 inHg)
Highest Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.) 162 kts (186.4 mph)
Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind 152 kts (174.9 mph)

Antilles Radar or Visible Satellite - you can use the drop down at the top of the image to toggle between radar and visible.  Irma is beginning to come into view on the radar.

Meteo France Antilles Radar

Here is a good list of webcams on St John - the Mountain Haven Cottage one in the "East End" list is a live youtube stream.

St John USVI Webcams