Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

Morning Largo,  That turn to the north is completely dependent upon the trough.  From the 5am discussion, that trough is going to lift out quicker, which means that there is a possibility that it doesn't attract Irma.   Then if that happens, the high pressure to the west and the Bermuda high to the east have an oportunity to bridge ( or meet in the middle).

If that happens, then all bets are off as to the track of her and when/if she makes the turn.

The ensembles are still showing a turn, but they have shifted further west

Euro Ensembles:



GFS Ensembles

I know its real early,still 6-7 days away but what I find strange is on the web..no one is talking about..IS Irma going to be a Big rainmaker?..in florida a lot of the rivers and streams etc are at of near flood stage already,and with our rainy season rains,our grounds wont be all  dried out..might be a lot of flooding is she does come in here..also high winds with wet ground underneath, I think of our tree's..hope none come down,power outages galore etc....well lets see how this plays out..still no official mention of Florida at all.

Oh my!! HH is in the Irma again this morning and no Vortex msgs have been sent, but the lowest pressure being recorded on the HDOBs is 949.2mbm at 16.783N, 52.083W.

The highest estimated surface wind recorded is 113.9mph, but that is associated with a very high rain rate, so it can be tossed.

An official Vortex msg has been transmitted from HH now.  This is the first Vortex msg from Mission 2 into Irma.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 9:48Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 9:04:14Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°47'N 52°06'W (16.7833N 52.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 562 statute miles (904 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,674m (8,773ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 107kts (~ 123.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 212° at 99kts (From the SSW at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (126°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,063m (10,049ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,284m (10,774ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center at 9:06:56Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 135° at 8kts (From the SE at 9mph)

LargoFL wrote:I know its real early,still 6-7 days away but what I find strange is on the web..no one is talking about..IS Irma going to be a Big rainmaker?..in florida a lot of the rivers and streams etc are at of near flood stage already,and with our rainy season rains,our grounds wont be all  dried out..might be a lot of flooding is she does come in here..also high winds with wet ground underneath, I think of our tree's..hope none come down,power outages galore etc....well lets see how this plays out..still no official mention of Florida at all.

I think the reason you aren't hearing about any of that is that no one knows where Irma is going. Details like how much rainfall is expected can't be considered until a track is nailed down. She is definitely a different monster than Harvey. There should be no sitting and spinning and dumping prolific amounts of rain in one place (whether it is over water or over land) due to blocking highs north of her like what happened in Houston. The environmental conditions with Harvey were very unusual.

She's still heading WSW this morning.

Hey Folks..6Z GFS has changed!!!!.....oh man I hope this verifies..cuba has BIG mountains..

GFS 06Z is running and should have some HH data in it from the first mission yesterday evening.  It has shifted well west and looks to be headed into the Florida straights.  It hasn't finished running though - it is on hr 150.

As much as I would hate to see that Largo, the mountains could be our friend if she wants to head toward the GOM.

yesterday the JMA model had Irma going into the gulf then northward into the Panhandle..i wonder if it was right...but again..its too early and these models will change track almost run to run, but..a glimmer of hope for us huh

yeah San..finally some hope for us....well if it goes into the gulf..our gulf coast would now be in danger,but..its only one model run...

LargoFL wrote:yesterday the JMA model had Irma going into the gulf then northward into the Panhandle..i wonder if it was right...but again..its too early and these models will change track almost run to run, but..a glimmer of hope for us huh

They will be dumping HH data into the models going forward now AND the atmosphere with regards to the trough and the ridges will begin to become clearer over the next couple of days. NHC will be able to fine tune the track with better accuracy.

Based on the the 951mb reported in the Vortex msg, this is the steering pattern for Irma - it still shows a continued WSW steering with a strong Bermuda High to the north.

Here comes the trough out of Canada... static image - will not update

overnight Euro has it going into Cuba then back into the atlantic by south florida...........

945.3mb recorded on HDOB data at 16.850N, 52.283W

The islands are going to get smacked, I'm afraid.   Irma has been strengthening overnight.  I'm sure it is a combination of DMAX and conducive environmental conditions.  It looks like she could encounter some shear ahead of her when she gets close to the islands.

This is probably my favorite water vapor loop page.   The first link is a still image which you can zoom in on and the second link is the animated loop which you can scroll on to view different areas.  It is a very large file, so it takes a minute to open the first time you access it.

ATMOS Water Vapor Widescreen - still image

ATMOS Water Vapor  Widescreen - animated loop

well GFS has Irma coming right up the middle of Florida this run..lets see the changes in the coming days..

its looking more likely a florida hit will come,gov of Florida says folks should be ready and prepared..just in case...by wens/thurs the store shelves will be empty huh...think i'd better get more batteries etc today..man I have a lot of tree trimming to do too..wont take in everything outside till I'm sure its coming here next day or so before...but hopefully things will change in the coming days...what I don't see so far..is any mentioning of it weakening back to say..a tropical storm lol...that..would be a great gift to us huh.

I guess I can count on a foot of rain, I should be ok I think...and as long as my roof holds that is my biggest worry...oh well no use worrying now..many days away yet.

Full GFS 500mb Height loop showing the trough lifting out faster and leaving Irma behind, although the trough does grab the system behind Irma, and a still image of 895mb spanking the keys

***Disclaimer***   One model run that will change again and again and again!

2nd Vortex msg from Mission #2

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 10:50Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 10:27:07Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°47'N 52°21'W (16.7833N 52.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 547 statute miles (880 km) to the ENE (62°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,655m (8,711ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the SSW (207°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 312° at 95kts (From the NW at ~ 109.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SSW (211°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 948mb (28.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,989m (9,806ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,334m (10,938ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center at 9:06:56Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 109kts (~ 125.4mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 10:29:44Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 80° at 10kts (From the E at 12mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL WEAKER NW THROUGH NE

I forgot to post the 0Z Euro - scrapes FL and hits NC

I don't like the way the models are clustering down in south Florida,prepare folks...

well only thing we can do is stock up supplies,prepare our homes then wait this out thru this week,now comes Friday, maybe Saturday lets hope things have changed and we wont get hit huh..nothing we can do but wait and see what unfolds..ive been here since 85 and this is maybe the first time I can remember where the whole state could get hit by a major hurricane..yeah we have had others hit but nothing like the tracks I'm seeing this morning...only good thing is this storm is 6-7 days away and there IS time for the tracks to change....

3rd Vortex msg from Mission #2

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 12:03Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:42:11Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°47'N 52°36'W (16.7833N 52.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 532 statute miles (856 km) to the ENE (62°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,640m (8,661ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 112kts (From the E at ~ 128.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,953m (9,688ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,341m (10,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center at 9:06:56Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW/N (349°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 34kts (From the S at 39mph)

Dang, been busy here. Nothing to add that hasn't already been said.

StAugustineFL wrote:Dang, been busy here.  Nothing to add that hasn't already been said.

and it may get even more busy. I look to the past to help with Cape Verde Storms...I remember this one well,I was in it.

Morning Aug and Gomey!

Hopefully, you see nothing like that again Gomey.   Bring on the mountains of Cuba!!!

I took a peek at all of the FL NWS office discussions - all of them were issued between 3:00am - 4:30am, and of course none mention the shift west.  It will be interesting to see their afternoon updates and what they mention.

HH will be flying in every 6 hours going forward (one is still in the storm), and the G-IV will be doing upper air sampling at 5:30PM EDT this evening. The G-IV should provide some good data regarding the High to the north of Irma.

I wish we could get more electromagnetic studies on hurricanes I really believe the key to forecasting Hurricanes is electromagnetism..

4th Vortex msg from Mission #2

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:30Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 13:13:23Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°46'N 52°57'W (16.7667N 52.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 511 statute miles (823 km) to the ENE (60°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,639m (8,658ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (~ 96.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ENE (72°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 155° at 102kts (From the SSE at ~ 117.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 946mb (27.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,944m (9,659ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,390m (11,122ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center at 9:06:56Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 19kts (From the E at 22mph)

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)

meaning we are seeing a decrease in winds before an eye wall replacement cycle...

NWS Melbourne.....
This cannot be emphasized enough: While the future track and
intensity of major Hurricane Irma are still subject to significant
change, there is potential for the storm to impact Florida Peninsula
this weekend. Now is the time to review your personal hurricane
preparedness plan of action, and ensure you have a fully stocked
hurricane supply kit! Continue to monitor subsequent forecasts for
Irma from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service
throughout the week.

gee billsfan..hope GFS doesn't verify...............................................

GFS has Irma stall over the keys for over 12+ hours then moves into SE Florida,could be a long duration storm if this verifies down there

then exits Florida around Melbourne or Daytona beach......a lot can change folks

Aug hope this doesn't verify,gfs has it going up the east coast..all the way to NYC gee..

But..this IS a slight change from the earlier run,back to being an east coast storm,hopefully in the coming days it moves away from florida..but..remember nothing official in all this..all florida needs to prepare and wait this out thru this long week gee.

OH NO.......after Irma...........JOSE??????....................

LOL I was watching potential Jose on the GFS run. It looked to go harmlessly out to the central ATL so I gave up on it. Now after viewing Largo's pic I took another look. I see he pulls a hurricane Jeanne with the loopty-loop then pushing back towards the coast. Hope that doesn't happen. I'll put that on the backburner for now as we watch Irma. Plus only one run and a long ways out.

StAugustineFL wrote:LOL I was watching potential Jose on the GFS run.  It looked to go harmlessly out to the central ATL so I gave up on it.  Now after viewing Largo's pic I took another look.   I see he pulls a hurricane Jeanne with the loopty-loop then pushing back towards the coast.  Hope that doesn't happen.  I'll put that on the backburner for now as we watch Irma.  Plus only one run and a long ways out.

yeah too far out in time alright, but was good for a laugh lol

I sure hope all these models are wrong,south florida is in for it with this monster storm,all or most of the models bring it into south florida around sunday/Monday...but still time for it to change I hope. but this is what they look for..models going in the same place huh..so far today they are.

here is the 12Z Euro..still coming out,good luck down there billsfan..........................

yes today all 3 models GFS-Euro-CMC have Irma coming into south Florida traveling up Florida and looks like out to the atlantic,somewhere around Melbourne-Daytona area.....now IF this verifies...with the supposedly bad side being on its right side..hopefully this will spare our gulf coast some of that really horrible wind destruction..who knows...still way too early yet...tomorrow they could be saying its in the gulf huh

new 18z Irma track from Levi...possible an east coast florida storm..............

This is going to be a LONG week.