Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

again, we cannot believe any model runs just yet,by Friday they should have a solid track and where it will go barring any surprises like speeding up etc....tomorrow's another day of the waiting game huh...good night folks

Lol, PT.
My 40th (plus) year here in Florida, and I pray, for guidance and strength, for everyone who takes part in this event. The company is sending me to Atlanta tomorrow (operational backup and disaster recovery if needed), so tonight and the morning is all the home prep I get. Keeping family safe is the only focus. If Irma tracks up the west coast, at 12' elevation at the top of the bay, surge is my greatest fear.

Man JR, you don't have much time. How will you know the status of your place? Oh they're closing Hernando Co schools tomorrow. This is beginning to get hot, isn't it?

Hi guys. My stomach is in knots. I'm going to Publix for a last run tomorrow for some items. Already have gas/water, generator at shop now. Ugggh

PuppyToes wrote:Man JR, you don't have much time. How will you know the status of your place? Oh they're closing Hernando Co schools tomorrow. This is beginning to get hot, isn't it?

Not sure, PT. I'm connected with many locals, but who knows how this will play out?

Hernando school closures, as early as tomorrow, don't make sense to me.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Lol, PT.
My 40th (plus) year here in Florida, and I pray, for guidance and strength, for everyone who takes part in this event.  The company is sending me to Atlanta tomorrow (operational backup and disaster recovery if needed), so tonight and the morning is all the home prep I get.  Keeping family safe is the only focus.  If Irma tracks up the west coast, at 12' elevation at the top of the bay, surge is my greatest fear.

JR ibe careful up there in GA,several models take Iema there next week..have a good trip.

GFS 0Z model run,close to south florida..then up the east coast of Florida...............

NAVGEM model also no landfall in Florida,up the east coast to the southeast.....

0Z Euro model also no landfall in Florida up east coast to southeast..............

so the overnight models mostly run up the east coast of Florida on the overnight runs and into the southeast,but still a few days left yet and things will change probably several times once again..prepare and wait this out ok.

regardless of model runs Florida is IN the official Cone..prepare and wait this out.............

folks remember..Irma is a huge powerful Hurricane,no matter what coast she goes up here..all or most of Florida will feel her hurricane winds and wrath gee..only good thing is,in most hurricanes,the most dangerous side of the eye is on its right side..and if she goes up the east coast..maybe the damage we receive might be a little less...stay tuned

now watch, tomorrow the models will say back up the middle of our state..cant trust them just yet.

oh oh..new NHC Cone.....................................................................

well at 5am it seems it may still come up into south florida, we cant believe the model runs,stay prepared huh.

Looks like St Bart took a direct hit and Irma's eye is now reaching St Martin

Link to Radar and Satellite Loop

Good morning all! Still no water/bread at Publix. Gas is sold out at many locations.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi guys.  My stomach is in knots.  I'm going to Publix for a last run tomorrow for some items. Already have gas/water, generator at shop now.  Ugggh

HIYA Billsfan!!..yes stock up and prepare and stay safe down there for sure.

scary,some model keep Irma a cat-5 all the way thru ................................

again, don't be fooled by todays model runs,ALOT can change in the coming days,prepare fully and wait this out.

AUG..if this current GFS track holds, Irma could be coming close to your coastline,stay alert up there ok

AUG..12Z Euro takes Irma up the state out by your area....................................

I guess no need to say this is one really Dangerous Hurricane,all of us will get some of this

Yep Largo. I will wait another 36 hours to see how things evolve. If too close for comfort I'm going to the west coast, lol.

Current Puerto Rico radar depicts the eye well. They dodged a bullet.

StAugustineFL wrote:Yep Largo.  I will wait another 36 hours to see how things evolve.  If too close for comfort I'm going to the west coast, lol.

Current Puerto Rico radar depicts the eye well.  They dodged a bullet.

oh glad your aware Aug, nothing set in stone yet,the sheer size of this storm, we'll all get some of it.

You don't need to worry about me being unaware Largo. I always have a good pulse with what's going on weather-wise locally, statewide, and often times nationally or internationally although don't always post due to work/life priorities. Irma with no doubt has 100% of my attention.

StAugustineFL wrote:You don't need to worry about me being unaware Largo.  I always have a good pulse with what's going on weather-wise locally, statewide, and often times nationally or internationally although don't always post due to work/life priorities.  Irma with no doubt has 100% of my attention.  

ok well good luck ok,we all get a piece of this HUGE monster storm.

news met says the hurricane force winds radiate 125-150 miles from eye so wherever this eye finally decides to go in florida,a whole lot of people and heavily populated cites will be affected..we still have a few days to see where and when this supposed turn comes...too early yet to know he said...

My Facebook and phone are blown up. My phone died today. We cannot leave. No way. Not a wise move

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:My Facebook and phone are blown up. My phone died today. We cannot leave. No way. Not a wise move

gee Billsfan,this is a real bad situation.

EPS Ensemble model still brings Irma up the middle of Florida......................

heed the NHC Cone folks,they wont be sure until maybe Saturday morning..stay safe everyone.

I guess most of Florida feels the way I do right now,this is a Massive hurricane heading to Florida,its as large as our whole state geez..cant tell you how nervous I am this morning.prepare and wait this out...dont take this storm lightly ok.

south florida may see Hurricane Watches at the 11am and central Florida may be in the hurricane watch this evening,just read that...well I'm preparing for sure,I guess I could see 90-100mph winds here by me,alot of these huge tree's around me could come down,but I should be ok as long as my roof stays put...I cannot imagine this hurricame coming up Into Florida..then all bets are off OMG....a met on the news called Irma a Nuclear Hurricane...no other hurricane in the world has ever stayed at cat-5 for so long...and its heading for that steam bath waters of the gulf stream that flows down there close to florida..boom when it hits it....Billsfan..get out of there.

Morning everyone....

The most recent (0Z) ensembles

Morning. What to do.........

good morning folks!...so much uncertainty on tracks this morning.

Which model is correct? The off the coast GFS or the Euro right into Miami? I was sure yesterday this storm would miss a direct hit on the state and plow into SC, but today with the frontal system looking weaker than previously and many of the Euro ensemble runs showing a Gulf storm I am not so sure. Also, the current forward motion of Irma at 17 MPH also has me concerned it will make it further westward before the weakness in the high is able to lift it north, increasing the odds of a FL hit. My current forecast is for really not much impacts, but I know this could change drastically depending on the track.

We still with all our technology can't predict any Hurricane past 3 days..This is a very complicated Atmosphere we are dealing with..Please do not take the center of the cone as set in stone...The track shown is less than 5% of that cone..which leaves a huge margin of error or could happens. IF you are 100 miles either side of the cone do not let your guard down...Models are only one in a million tools used and they just give a hint...no more

Current water vapor showing the shortwave coming down.  Static image - will not update.

Click here for link to Central US satellite imagery page

That shortwave is faster than predicted..I hope with tha zonal flow it dont dig much farther south..If it does stationary Katia could gain latitude and lift north and be pulled NE with that flow..

gomexwx wrote:That shortwave is faster than predicted..I hope with tha zonal flow it dont dig much farther south..If it does stationary Katia could gain latitude and lift north and be pulled NE with that flow..

In chatting with someone this morning, I wondered why there was no forecasted effect on Katia from that shortwave.