Tropical Threats First Part of Sept

sangria wrote:

gomexwx wrote:That shortwave is faster than predicted..I hope with tha zonal flow it dont dig much farther south..If it does stationary Katia could gain latitude and lift north and be pulled NE with that flow..

In chatting with someone this morning, I wondered why there was no forecasted effect on Katia from that shortwave.

because they are paying attention to Irma, I have been watching Katia since she was a cloud. Climatology alone dictates pay attention for this time of the year for anything in that area...

NHC SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

now the Nam Model brings Irma into south florida.......................................

we may not know the true track until sometime Saturday or maybe Friday evening huh

well I'm putting up my plwood over the windows etc tomorrow even if it does go up the east coast, this storm is Huge in size,all of us get a piece of her.

power outage prediction.......................................................................................................

oh how I wish this would verify for this area by me.......................................

gee Billsfan, I sure hope the storm moves more eastward into the atlantic..stay safe down there ok

well today there's 3-4 models that bring it into florida and go some ways up the state before moving NE..tomorrow may say something different,if your in the cone..thats what you make your decisions on..

The timing of the turn is going to be critical.  East coast looks most at risk now.  We shall see what tomorrow brings.  

Bills - you are batting leadoff.  I sincerely hope 1) the storm weakens by the time it approaches you, 2) it turns east, or 3) you dodge the eyewall.

Pinellas evacuating Zone A..all the coastal area's around the county and the real low lying area's

12Z Euro now brings Irma up the middle of Florida..a mega hurricane

The Euro shifted West...

GFS and Euro both say Irma will get even Bigger when it gets around the Bahama's and tip of florida in that really hot water and hardly any windshear..folks we are maybe witnessing History in the making,,hope we all live thru this.

Hey all. We've been busy taking outside decorations down trellises and our furniture inside the garage. I've been monitoring the site as well as latest wx info. Our nerves are frayed to say the least. Nobody around us is doing any outside preps but we are doing everything we can. Just took inside pix and now outside in a min. Lord keep us safe and in Your hands during the storm.

PuppyToes wrote:Hey all. We've been busy taking outside decorations down trellises and our furniture inside the garage. I've been monitoring the site as well as latest wx info. Our nerves are frayed to say the least. Nobody around us is doing any outside preps but we are doing everything we can. Just took inside pix and now outside in a min. Lord keep us safe and in Your hands during the storm.

hi PT, some folks around me are doing their outside preps etc..im doing mine tomorrow if I can calm down some..glad your prepping also...those who heeded the warnings and prepared will survive this.

OMG 12Z Navgem model takes IRMA into the gulf and..into Tampa area Now.....

Hi guys. I'm totally beyond worry at this point. Please pray for all of us.

Holy cow! I just can't believe that nobody can figure out the system and identify its track so close to our landfall. There's a lot of folks that can be impacted by shift either way. Sad thing is it won't give people much time. I wonder how long it's gonna take for her to come over the house.

Irma you're a pain in the butt. I'm emotionally drained and she's not here yet. First storm for me so I'm scared to death. Freaking out!

I'm praying for everyone. Minimum hassle and damage. When you see Irma, formidable might be the word but you know she's coming and she's bringing her attitude let's hope she'll be fickle

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi guys.  I'm totally beyond worry at this point.  Please pray for all of us.

you got the prayers Billsfan,hope you get thru this safe ok.

My prayers and thoughts go out for everyone, and constantly for BillsFan and our neighbors on the Gold Coast.

Where will she go? Am I wrong in thinking that best case for all is up the FL spine (other than ots, of course)? Certainly scrape Cuba a bit (no offense intended). The most possible land interaction, centered on the least population?

Random thought: Are they dumping Okeechobee?

PT: You've got mail.

well I'm hoping,since I'm staying put here..that by the time it reaches my area it weakens some overland down to a cat 3 or maybe cat-2.

San..are you also staying home thru this?

JR will you be home thru Irma too?

Good morning everyone

No changes to speak of with the 5am advisory.  Euro still likes west and GFS still likes a bit further east. The hurricane model, the HWRF, is in line with the GFS.   Until the "actual" turn occurs we can speculate all we want, but that turn is paramount to where Irma ends up tracking north.  

There is also a chance that she will have some interplay with Cuba as she moves west today, and that could impact her intensity. (from our mouths to God's ears).  

I hope everyone has prepared or evacuated as needed.  If you are still in need of gas because you couldn't find any, there is an app called Gas Buddy that you can download to your phone (both android and iphone).  This app is updating in real time with which stations have gas in your area.  It is very simple to use (my neighbor showed it to me yesterday).

I'll be heading out to top off the tank this morning and dare I say it, "Run into Wally World."  Yep!  I have to swing by there, but only to pick up an "order and pick up in store" battery operated fan.  I would have already gone, but you can't do a pick up until 8am....ugggh.

Try not to go blind watching the model runs and PLEASE don't pay attention to the hype on social media.  There are way too many reliable sources to get your information from.  

The latest visible loop of Irma, with another dangerous situation from Jose for the Leeward Islands behind her....  



Ta Ta For Now............

Morning. Sigh, not much longer til "showtime". I have mixed emotions about the slight west shift. If that track were to pan out, it puts east FL in the right front quad. So, not only winds but the right front quad is your tornado producer. Stay safe all.

LargoFL wrote:JR will you be home thru Irma too?

JR is in Atlanta. Backup contingency for work. There's about 25 of us here, and another 10 in NJ. Just in case we lose our data center to Irma. I left early enough on Wednesday to miss most of the I-75 parking lot -- Still made it in about 7 hours.

I wish I was home.

JRnOldsmar wrote:

LargoFL wrote:JR will you be home thru Irma too?

JR is in Atlanta.  Backup contingency for work.  There's about 25 of us here, and another 10 in NJ.  Just in case we lose our data center to Irma.  I left early enough on Wednesday to miss most of the I-75 parking lot -- Still made it in about 7 hours.

I wish I was home.  

ok JR glad your in a safe place....local mets on TV are predicting..so far anyway..we may be on the west side of a cat-2 hurricane,possible 70-90 mph winds with higher gusts...still early yet, things could change..hope we get thru this in one piece..

Track has shifted west.  Hurricane watches extended up both coasts.




WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Sebastian Inlet and from Bonita Beach northward to
Venice.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Sebastian Inlet to
Ponce Inlet.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the east
coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and along the
west coast of Florida to Anclote River.

well Tampa Bay area is now under a hurricane watch

well some good news ..so far they think Irma will be down to a cat-1 hurricane up in central florida,but stay alert anyway, this storm loves to fool these experts huh

LargoFL wrote:well some good news ..so far they think Irma will be down to a cat-1 hurricane up in central florida,but stay alert anyway, this storm loves to fool these experts huh

I'm keeping an eye on that. Current forecast from the NHC has 145mph at landfall in south FL then down to 75mph 24 hours later. Seems too quick a drop in intensity but we shall see. Now, that 75mph marker was a little to my WSW. I would think it'd still be packing 90-100mph when passing Tampa latitude.

big change in 2pm sat Euro..no it comes up the gulf coast oh no................

this Hurricane has no intention of doing what these experts want it to do...prepare folks,this hurricane is going to affect the whole state. its so HUGE,larger than the whole state.

SAN GFS has the EYE of IRM either right over or very near Tampa bay...

gee if this track holds thru tomorrow I'm really In for it,man this cant be happening.

well I'm guessing 90-100mph with higher gusts around tampa bay, any less and i'll be very thankful...folks around my block etc are finally listening and about half boarded up,maybe more will do it tomorrow...well sunday/Monday is my storm days so far...we'll see how this goes..just hope the roof holds.

good sat morning folks...I cant say when this will begin but so far local mets think by the tampa bay area we will get to experience a Cat-3 hurricane,well I'm boarded up and supplied, today while there's still time I'm taking in anything that can blow around etc and getting ready to wait this out,hopefully power wont go out until sometime sunday..would be wonderful if it stayed on lol..but we know that wont happen...we ALL will get to experience this hurricane, its a monster sized storm huh..well lots to do today, take care my friends..hope we all get thru this without any injuries ok.

Good luck and be safe everyone!

Hey all. Just wanted to say good luck and be safe. Get a good nights sleep tonight. My God protect us all

Hope everyone rides this storm out well!  I will be evacuating in the morning, as I am in a mandatory evac area...uggh!!

Let us know how you fare by posting when you can.....  prayers for everyone and on Irma!!

Area radars (all are static)..........

Key West:


Miami:


Tampa:


Jacksonville:

Hope all fair well. Good luck, stay safe, and see ya on the other side.