CLOSED Florida weather and Tropical season weather

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  Looking forward to the rain chances returning.  I've been in a mini dry spell with zippo 4 of the past 6 days.  Today offers some hope albeit not the greatest chances.  We shall see.

good morning Grandpa!!..yes next week could get interesting,i was reading the long version of the nws tampa discussion and it seems some kind of trough will be coming to florida and will stall out they think..exactly where in florida is the question,could be some heavy rains for some area's..would be nice if it makes it down to the I-4 area's but the models are uncertain where..GFS is the most aggressive..we'll see how it goes..but good luck with the rains ok.

here..is the long version of the nws discussion for next week.....LONG TERM (Monday - Friday)...
The upcoming work week is shaping up to be an active summer
convection period as several factors work together in order
to keep late afternoon and evening thunderstorms coverage
rather high. Monday begins the long term period with the
Florida peninsula residing at or just below the base of
longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS. Associated with
this trough, we will find a weak frontal boundary that will
have sagged to near the I-10 corridor by morning. This
feature will have a big impact on the Monday forecast,
especially just how far south this boundary sags by the
afternoon hours. This aspect is not 100% agreed upon among
the ensemble members, with the GFS showing the most
southward solution. Using LI as a proxy for surface boundary
position, the front will lie somewhere between Gainesville,
and the I-4 corridor. Other guidance members are slightly
shifted northward back closer to I-10. The main impact of
this difference would be just how much drier the forecast
will be for the northern zones (Levy/Citrus). Being behind
the boundary would certainly decrease rain chances, however,
with the GFS being the most aggressive in movement, will
keep a forecast that gives some weight to the more numerous
northern solutions. Things can be adjusted should a trend
toward the current GFS solution appear in later guidance
packages. For everyone else, this combination of synoptic
focus, sea-breeze focus, and a highly moist column south of
the boundary will no doubt support development of numerous
diurnal showers/storms. Monday will see the weakest low
level flow of the extended period, and hence the west-coast
sea- breeze will have the best potential to move inland
during the day. Of course, convection may alter some of this
evolution, but feel Monday is the best chance to see
convection consolidate during the evening hours across our
inland areas (similar to the current NAM).

The frontal boundary will certainly become stationary by
Monday night, and then decay quickly during the day
Tuesday. The frontal decay will allow continental high
pressure along the eastern seaboard to take control of our
synoptic low level flow. 100-700mb flow will become increasingly
easterly through Tuesday, and become defined by Tuesday
night. The ridge then shifts offshore of the Carolinas for
the remainder of the week, with our low level winds veering
slightly out of the southeast.

This E/SE flow is an active sea-breeze convection setup for
the Florida west coast, as it focuses the greatest low level
focus/convergence along the west-coast seabreeze / I-75
corridor of the state. This already favorable convection
setup will be enhanced by a very moist and thermodynamically
friendly atmospheric column (PW values at or over 2").

Therefore, the forecasts for the middle and end of the week
will remain similar from day to day. Nocturnal scattered
storms are likely over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
(especially late along land-breeze boundaries). The landmass
will should see mostly dry conditions during the overnight
and through the morning/midday hours. Sct showers and storms
will migrate east to west across the state during the afternoon
hours, and then consolidate in coverage during the late
afternoon/early evening hours along the FL west coast. The
synoptic flow will then favor this activity migrating offshore
into the Gulf and weakening during the later evening hours.


Temperatures throughout this period look to be near climo,
with no significant synoptic influences to suggest anything
different. Local convective clusters on Monday and Tuesday
may be enough to keep certain areas in the 80s, but to early
to try and get all that detailed at this stage, nor is it
going to change many plans whether high temps are say 90 vs
85.


&&

LargoFL wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  Looking forward to the rain chances returning.  I've been in a mini dry spell with zippo 4 of the past 6 days.  Today offers some hope albeit not the greatest chances.  We shall see.

good morning Grandpa!!..yes next week could get interesting,i was reading the long version of the nws tampa discussion and it seems some kind of trough will be coming to florida and will stall out they think..exactly where in florida is the question,could be some heavy rains for some area's..would be nice if it makes it down to the I-4 area's but the models are uncertain where..GFS is the most aggressive..we'll see how it goes..but good luck with the rains ok.

LOL Largo. That's going to take some time getting used to.

I hope that front stays further north which should help benefit all of us. If it clears my area the valve may get shut off again for a couple of days.

StAugustineFL wrote:

LargoFL wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  Looking forward to the rain chances returning.  I've been in a mini dry spell with zippo 4 of the past 6 days.  Today offers some hope albeit not the greatest chances.  We shall see.

good morning Grandpa!!..yes next week could get interesting,i was reading the long version of the nws tampa discussion and it seems some kind of trough will be coming to florida and will stall out they think..exactly where in florida is the question,could be some heavy rains for some area's..would be nice if it makes it down to the I-4 area's but the models are uncertain where..GFS is the most aggressive..we'll see how it goes..but good luck with the rains ok.

LOL Largo.  That's going to take some time getting used to.

I hope that front stays further north which should help benefit all of us.  If it clears my area the valve may get shut off again for a couple of days.

LOL yeah I remember when my first grandchild was born, gee I was so happy, now I have 2,but being over in san fran, I only get to see them once or twice a year

Good afternoon! Sure is hot and humid here. I would also like some rain this weekend, but I don't think the chances are very good.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon! Sure is hot and humid here.  I would also like some rain this weekend, but I don't think the chances are very good.  

good afternoon Billsfan...good luck ok thru the next 5 days.

NWS Jacksonville..... Sat Jun 24 2017

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight...

Moderate risk of rip currents for northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia beaches.

Scattered storms will be possible south of a line from Gainesville
to St. Augustine this afternoon through early this evening. Isolated
to scattered storms will also be possible across inland locations of
southeast Georgia late this afternoon through late this evening.
Isolated strong storms will be possible. The main threats will be
locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Numerous storms are expected Sunday and Monday as a weak cold
front enters the region. At least scattered storms will be
possible Tuesday through Friday, with the best chances across
northeast Florida. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning,
and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

$$

JDS/ARS

NWS Tampa.....Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1003 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Starting to see some CU fields develop from south to north
this morning as a mid level cloud deck starts to dissipate
around Sarasota County. The 12Z sounding for TBW showing a
little more moisture in the air to work with compared to
yesterday with PW around 1.79. The extra moisture combined
with the seabreeze will help to produce some isolated to
scattered storms through the afternoon. Highest coverage
will once again be across the inland areas. No changes have
been done to the forecast.

&&

well just finished trimming some things..had to shower right away..man its so humid here..gee whomever gets the rain..you can count on it being heavy wow.

well good chances for rain all this coming week around here................

say..you folks on tablets...when I post pics at 700-500 can you see the whole pic now?

I went to the doc this last week and among other things..took a blood test for this....are you 50 or over??...best you take this blood test too huh.............................................1 in 30
BABY BOOMERS HAS HEP C, AND MOST DON’T EVEN KNOW IT.

Hepatitis C (Hep C) is a serious, blood-borne disease that has been under the radar. It’s not talked about much, so even though it affects millions, many people don’t know about it. It’s almost been forgotten. People live with it for years or even decades with no symptoms, while Hep C slowly damages their liver. By the time symptoms do appear, liver damage is often advanced. Left untreated, Hep C can cause liver damage, liver cancer, and even death.
That’s why it’s important to get tested, so you can know for sure. And if you have Hep C, it can be cured.

LargoFL wrote:say..you folks on tablets...when I post pics at 700-500 can you see the whole pic now?

Yes, thank you!

LargoFL wrote:I went to the doc this last week and among other things..took a blood test for this....are you 50 or over??...best you take this blood test too huh.............................................1 in 30
BABY BOOMERS HAS HEP C, AND MOST DON’T EVEN KNOW IT.

Hepatitis C (Hep C) is a serious, blood-borne disease that has been under the radar. It’s not talked about much, so even though it affects millions, many people don’t know about it. It’s almost been forgotten. People live with it for years or even decades with no symptoms, while Hep C slowly damages their liver. By the time symptoms do appear, liver damage is often advanced. Left untreated, Hep C can cause liver damage, liver cancer, and even death.
That’s why it’s important to get tested, so you can know for sure. And if you have Hep C, it can be cured.

Thank you for info... I think...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
538 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

FLZ162-165-262-265-242230-
Coastal Charlotte-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Coastal Lee-
538 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL CHARLOTTE AND NORTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTIES...

At 534 PM EDT, thunderstorms were clustered over Palmona Park, or 7
miles northwest of Fort Myers. The storm is nearly stationary.

Heavy rainfall and winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Coral, Palmona Park, Lochmoor Waterway Estates, Burnt Store
Marina, Pirate Harbor, North Fort Myers, Tropical Gulf Acres and
Suncoast Estates.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2685 8180 2665 8185 2667 8209 2685 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 112DEG 3KT 2672 8192

$$

Norman

it looks like Scott's area got some good showers this early Sunday morning......

NWS Tampa.....Sun Jun 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
into the evening hours. A few of the storm will be capable of
gusty winds and frequent lightning, however, severe weather is
generally not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous daily thunderstorms are expected during the
each day through the week. The majority of these storms will occur
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is
generally not expected, although a few storms will be capable of
stronger winds and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Good Sunday Morning Folks!!..well no rain here by me so far this morning,hopefully later today maybe..looks like GrandPa might be in luck up there with a trough supposedly going to stall out somewhere up there..good Luck Aug!!...well a Hot sunny day coming..and the Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy...have a great day everyone!!

SWFLWX did you get some good rain down there yesterday?..none by me.

yes Billsfan..doc was pretty serious that since I'm way over 50 I take that blood test for HEP-C...I told him I'm not sick..he said it lays dormant for decades and you wont know it till it starts affecting you....kinda scary huh..well i'll find out the results this week I guess..im sure by now..it would have come out if I had it...im thinking that whenever someone gets any kind of bloodtest..they should have been screening for that as well huh...

StAugustineFL wrote:Here you go Largo if you haven't looked it up already.

That would be an amazing place to see!

Good morning ya'll!  It looks like there will be a stronger west flow this upcoming week.  Aug and Billsfan, y'all should be the beneficiaries.

GFS Total QPF Animated Loop


NAM Total precip out to 84 hours

This would have been interesting to see happen...

Unmanned boat crashes full-speed onto Florida beach

Morning all. Had a brief shower yesterday evening and got a tenth of an inch.

I like those pretty colors on the GFS san. It's been raining fairly regularly but not quite enough. Still running at a good 6" deficit for the year.

sangria wrote:Good morning ya'll!  It looks like there will be a stronger west flow this upcoming week.  Aug and Billsfan, y'all should be the beneficiaries.

GFS Total QPF Animated Loop


NAM Total precip out to 84 hours

good morning!!..sprinkles by me now,just a lil heavier towards Clearwater

sangria wrote:This would have been interesting to see happen...

Unmanned boat crashes full-speed onto Florida beach

gee unmanned?..boy people on the beach could have been run over huh

sangria wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:Here you go Largo if you haven't looked it up already.

That would be an amazing place to see!

It is San. Took the family on a road trip from San Fran to Fort Bragg. Right up the coast, then through the redwoods. Took a day steam-train trip into the forest for a bbq hoedown. Then returned via Russian Valley wine country. It's definitely an amazing place. My job took me out to SF, LA or New Orleans each year for about 10 years. I always stayed an extra week and the family joined for a new adventure.

JENNY..NWS Tallahassee............................NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Interesting forecast shaping up for today with a slow moving frontal
boundary entering the area and a tropical airmass in place. A large
area of 2 inch PWATs or greater resides along and ahead of the front
across our area. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the greatest chance
along a corridor from near Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta.
Looking at forecast soundings in BUFKIT, the steering flow is weak,
and the flow that`s there is generally parallel to the front this
afternoon. This could support slow moving or training convection
within the tropical airmass ahead of the front. Several CAMs respond
to this by dumping isolated 4-6" rainfall amounts today across the
eastern Florida panhandle, western big bend, and adjacent southern
Georgia. However, most areas will see anywhere from a quarter inch
to an inch of rain. Coordinated with WPC on a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall today to account for the possibility of the
isolated heavy totals. Because of the expected isolated nature of
the heavy totals, a watch does not seem warranted, but we did add
locally heavy rainfall wording into the point and click forecast to
show some indication of the heavy rainfall potential today, mainly
from Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta. High temperatures will
generally range from the mid 80s to near 90.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The front will weaken and stall over the area tonight. PoPs tonight
will range from 20-40%. By Monday night drier air will push south as
high pressure builds in over the southeast. Tuesday will be fairly
dry for summer, with PoPs limited to the Big Bend. Drier air will
allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 60s on Sunday night. Highs
will be in the upper 80s.

gee that could be a lot of rain for area's of northern florida and Panhandle..

sure would be nice to have that sink down to my area..seems like I'm in the dry spot again.

if this verifies, could be some heavy rainfall amounts close to you Aug.......

I'll take that Largo. Some showers/storms in the area but nothing too close as of yet.

JRnOldsmar wrote:

sangria wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:Here you go Largo if you haven't looked it up already.

That would be an amazing place to see!

It is San.  Took the family on a road trip from San Fran to Fort Bragg.  Right up the coast, then through the redwoods.  Took a day steam-train trip into the forest for a bbq hoedown.    Then returned via Russian Valley wine country.  It's definitely an amazing place.  My job took me out to SF, LA or New Orleans each year for about 10 years.  I always stayed an extra week and the family joined for a new adventure.  

What an extraordinary experience that must have been your family. I've never been on a train trip, but I bet that steam-train trip was fun. :-)

Sounds like a great trip!

We need some rain for sure! Only four more months of summer.

well in the last few hours NWS JACKSONVILLE has been issuing flood warnings for different area's of northern florida..seems like from Daytona northward..too many to post..stay safe out there ok must be very heavy rains..nothing here by me..good night

Good Monday Morning Folks...it seems rain chances going up some in the afternoon/evening here..good luck folks who get some...well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy...have a great day everyone!!

Gee a big 2 alarm fire over in Tampa this morning.............................

this time next week some models hinting again..so far not Florida..

LargoFL wrote:JENNY..NWS Tallahassee............................NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Interesting forecast shaping up for today with a slow moving frontal
boundary entering the area and a tropical airmass in place. A large
area of 2 inch PWATs or greater resides along and ahead of the front
across our area. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the greatest chance
along a corridor from near Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta.
Looking at forecast soundings in BUFKIT, the steering flow is weak,
and the flow that`s there is generally parallel to the front this
afternoon. This could support slow moving or training convection
within the tropical airmass ahead of the front. Several CAMs respond
to this by dumping isolated 4-6" rainfall amounts today across the
eastern Florida panhandle, western big bend, and adjacent southern
Georgia. However, most areas will see anywhere from a quarter inch
to an inch of rain. Coordinated with WPC on a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall today to account for the possibility of the
isolated heavy totals. Because of the expected isolated nature of
the heavy totals, a watch does not seem warranted, but we did add
locally heavy rainfall wording into the point and click forecast to
show some indication of the heavy rainfall potential today, mainly
from Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta. High temperatures will
generally range from the mid 80s to near 90.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The front will weaken and stall over the area tonight. PoPs tonight
will range from 20-40%. By Monday night drier air will push south as
high pressure builds in over the southeast. Tuesday will be fairly
dry for summer, with PoPs limited to the Big Bend. Drier air will
allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 60s on Sunday night. Highs
will be in the upper 80s.

Morning! We got another 1 1/2" yesterday. It was perfect napping weather. Yall have a good day!

j3nnyb3an wrote:

LargoFL wrote:JENNY..NWS Tallahassee............................NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Interesting forecast shaping up for today with a slow moving frontal
boundary entering the area and a tropical airmass in place. A large
area of 2 inch PWATs or greater resides along and ahead of the front
across our area. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the greatest chance
along a corridor from near Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta.
Looking at forecast soundings in BUFKIT, the steering flow is weak,
and the flow that`s there is generally parallel to the front this
afternoon. This could support slow moving or training convection
within the tropical airmass ahead of the front. Several CAMs respond
to this by dumping isolated 4-6" rainfall amounts today across the
eastern Florida panhandle, western big bend, and adjacent southern
Georgia. However, most areas will see anywhere from a quarter inch
to an inch of rain. Coordinated with WPC on a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall today to account for the possibility of the
isolated heavy totals. Because of the expected isolated nature of
the heavy totals, a watch does not seem warranted, but we did add
locally heavy rainfall wording into the point and click forecast to
show some indication of the heavy rainfall potential today, mainly
from Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta. High temperatures will
generally range from the mid 80s to near 90.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The front will weaken and stall over the area tonight. PoPs tonight
will range from 20-40%. By Monday night drier air will push south as
high pressure builds in over the southeast. Tuesday will be fairly
dry for summer, with PoPs limited to the Big Bend. Drier air will
allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 60s on Sunday night. Highs
will be in the upper 80s.

Morning! We got another 1 1/2" yesterday. It was perfect napping weather. Yall have a good day!

ok Jenny..have a great day ok

GRRR,,alot of booming and LOOK almost 2 inches and it missed me!!!...

ok more storms moving in here..finally getting some good soaking rain..

folks inland from me..Alot of lightning and thunder with these storms,dont get caught outdoors when they get to you.

wow Mother Nature must have heard me LOL..Heavy rains now..and in 10 minutes it filled to the top my birdbath outside!!..folks inland..these storms probably drop Inches of rain..stay safe out there.

Lot of lightning in these storms

StPeteFLwx wrote:Lot of lightning in these storms

Hiya st pete..guess you got these heavy rains down there too huh..man it had to drop way over an inch, maybe 2 inches here by me,it was coming down so hard and fast..the water overflowed the gutters and it lasted a Long time like that whew, but..the rain was most welcomed here by me...we needed that bad.

more coming in from the gulf down by you st Pete..................

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms have erupted early
today along and near a weak frontal boundary from Tampa Bay
northeast to Orlando. This activity will gradually work its
way eastward with additional storms developing along the
seabreeze along the southwest Florida coast through the
afternoon. With this evolution, most any terminal may see
visibility and ceiling limitations due to storms and will
maintain VCTS. Storms should move east of coastal terminals
by 21z to 22z but may linger over interior areas into this
evening. Visibilities less than 1/2 mile and gusty winds
will be common with any thunderstorms.

&&