CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

StAugustineFL wrote:Some sort of liquid substance briefly fell from the sky but has now ended.  Looking at Tampa radar you folks over there may get something similar in an hour or two.

Thanks Aug..i finished the blowing out the gutters and raked all the leaves in front..2 huge bags worth..but that's done now I can sort of sit back and relax..hopefully enjoying a sprinkle of rain...yes all the models hinting at something later this week...still not 100% certain what it will be and where it crosses.

Static loop.

yeah if it holds together we just might get this rain for a few minutes..grass and plants will be very happy lol

Hey St.Pete...was last nights fire in that apartment complex anywhere near you?..i guess with 2 alarms ..all the sirens from the fire engines kept everyone up huh

well so far it could....be a wet and windy Thanksgiving and Black Friday,but still not set in stone just yet...lets see what they are saying Wednesday morning maybe even Tuesday night ...a little rain is most welcomed..just don't want any bad wind. and with any LOW coming ashore from the gulf..doesn't matter is they say a weak one or not..any LOW coming ashore can sometimes have surprises huh..

Hi everyone. Happy Sunday. Boy these weekends sure go fast. I'm making a Western NY speciality called Beef on Weck today. And homemade potato skins.
We cubed bread for dressing earlier. Turkey in refrigerator thawing. I love Thanksgiving !

Good Monday Morning folks!!!...In looking at my Local NWS discussion,some interesting weather starting tomorrow sometime and some good rain chances all thru this week..sounds good to me,we sure need it...watch out for any surprises when the Low or Lows come ashore...well its a Holiday week,traffic will be heavy,LOTS of out of towners here,be alert driving ok..already had 2 almosts driving my wife to the stores yesterday..people not paying attention on the roads or looking for addresses etc..stay safe out there lol..well have a great day folks...John..have a safe trip and enjoy ok! BBL

Wow, NWS Ruskin missed my forecast last night by several degrees. My local forecast was for a low of 39, instead I got 33 with patchy frost. Hopefully my wives potted tropical plants survive as I normally bring them off the porch and inside when there is a chance of frost. However, I didn't realize it was going to get this cold. I got a tenth out of the front. Looks like we might get our MUCH NEEDED rainfall event over the Thanksgiving Holiday. Currently looking at a forecast of 2" total for the event. I sure hope it materializes.
On the nutjob murderer in Tampa, hope they catch him soon and treat him how Charlie Daniels says to treat criminals (string them up deep in a swamp and let the critters take care of em!!). Unfortunately there are many many sickos in the world today and it seems it is only going to get worse. Glad my family and I live back in the woods.

found this in doc'c blog..watch the gulf folks....................................

whew 70% rain chances tomorrow per NWS...................................

Monday morning’s low temperatures:
36 Hernando
39 Brooksville
43 Crystal River
45 Inverness
45 Brandon
46 Lakeland
47 MacDill Air Force Base
47 Ruskin
48 Clearwater
49 New Port Richey
50 Davis Islands
50 Winter Haven
50 Bradenton
51 Tampa
52 Bartow
56 St. Petersburg

waterdipper wrote:Wow, NWS Ruskin missed my forecast last night by several degrees. My local forecast was for a low of 39, instead I got 33 with patchy frost. Hopefully my wives potted tropical plants survive as I normally bring them off the porch and inside when there is a chance of frost. However, I didn't realize it was going to get this cold. I got a tenth out of the front. Looks like we might get our MUCH NEEDED rainfall event over the Thanksgiving Holiday. Currently looking at a forecast of 2" total for the event. I sure hope it materializes.
On the nutjob murderer in Tampa, hope they catch him soon and treat him how Charlie Daniels says to treat criminals (string them up deep in a swamp and let the critters take care of em!!). Unfortunately there are many many sickos in the world today and it seems it is only going to get worse. Glad my family and I live back in the woods.

yeah you must be in one of those colder spots they sometimes mention..yeah frost can really do damage to the tropical etc..hope they are ok....didn't get quite that cold here but..it FELT a lot colder then the actual temp was..early this morning.

NWS Tampa.........DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A storm system will develop over the central Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and will slowly move east across West Central and
Southwest Florida Wednesday through Friday, bringing increasing
chances for rain and some isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
that do develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rain,
gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes.

NWS Miami.....................Mon Nov 20 2017

...Hazardous Marine Conditions for the Atlantic Waters...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for the Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: An isolated thunderstorm or two cant be ruled out on
Atlantic waters, and along the immediate Atlantic coast tonight.

Wind: Wind of 20 to 25 knots are forecast for the Atlantic waters
through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic
waters.

Waves: Seas of 6 to 8 feet can be expected in Atlantic waters,
highest over the Gulf Stream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A moderate risk of rip currents will likely continue on Atlantic
beaches Tuesday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and again on Thanksgiving
Day. Lightning is the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

[/quote]
yeah you must be in one of those colder spots they sometimes mention..yeah frost can really do damage to the tropical etc..hope they are ok....didn't get quite that cold here but..it FELT a lot colder then the actual temp was..early this morning.[/quote]

This wasn't a cold spot Largo, this was a widespread miss in low temps forecast in which it reached freezing in many inland areas of north central FL, with frost in a lot of locations. NWS Tallahassee has admitted missing the forecast lows by several degrees while NWS Ruskin just ignores the fact. I have stated many times I believe they do a poor job of forecasting for the northern portion of their forecast region. In fact, most the time they act like if it is north of Tampa/St. Pete it doesn't exist. If you read there scientific discussion this AM, they clearly stated lows in the region were in the 40's and 50's. LOL

Here was NWS Ruskin's discussion this AM:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
316 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...

.SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)...
A cold front across the southern peninsula early this
morning will stall out across the Florida Straits by later
this afternoon and early tonight as surface high pressure
over the southeastern states drifts east-northeast toward
the mid Atlantic coast. Cooler and drier air will continue
to advect into the region the remainder of the morning on a
breezy northerly wind flow with temperatures bottoming out
in the mid to upper 40s across the Nature Coast, lower to
mid 50s central interior, and mid to upper 50s across
southwest Florida toward sunrise. Dry stable conditions
associated with the high to the north will initially support
sunny skies through the late morning, but as the flow
quickly veers into the east-northeast as the high moves east
expect to see a slow increase in clouds from east to west
during the afternoon as low level moisture increases across
the region.

Reality was lows reached the low 30's, that is a big miss, or failure to even look at what was going on in Levy County. There wasn't even a mention of cold pockets or even any potential frost. Fortunately this was just a cold AM and not a severe weather event that they failed to forecast here, although that has happened plenty of times before. OK, NWS Ruskin office rant over.

yeah you must be in one of those colder spots they sometimes mention..yeah frost can really do damage to the tropical etc..hope they are ok....didn't get quite that cold here but..it FELT a lot colder then the actual temp was..early this morning.[/quote]

This wasn't a cold spot Largo, this was a widespread miss in low temps forecast in which it reached freezing in many inland areas of north central FL, with frost in a lot of locations. NWS Tallahassee has admitted missing the forecast lows by several degrees while NWS Ruskin just ignores the fact. I have stated many times I believe they do a poor job of forecasting for the northern portion of their forecast region. In fact, most the time they act like if it is north of Tampa/St. Pete it doesn't exist. If you read there scientific discussion this AM, they clearly stated lows in the region were in the 40's and 50's. LOL[/quote]yeah forecasting is all scientific guesswork..i guess it will be in the low 50's tonight etc...although they don't say it like that LOL

gee doc's latest blog is troubling,especially for our younger folks who will be alive when all this happens..not only global sea level  rises but also much Heavier rainfall amounts from mega storms..MCS's I think they were called....well hopefully i'll miss all this,but for you younger folks..a different world you will be experiencing weather wise and maybe even geography wise,what is dry land today...may not be In your lifetimes...well today its believe or not believe...50-100 years from now it may be..where do we live now?

well mid 70's here by me now,our northern visitors must be enjoying our weather temp wise huh..COLD up north already.

TO ALL I realize some of you will be traveling to be with family and loved ones and wont be here Thursday...so in advance..from my Family to Yours....Have a Happy Thanksgiving

well if this verifies I'll be one of the first to see what this LOW has to offer............

so several LOWS may cross Florida?......................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...
Moisture will quickly return tonight as surface high pressure
moves off southeast U.S. coast and mid/upper level troughing
amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico leading to increasing clouds
and possibly a few showers late tonight south of Interstate 4. The
deep moisture will overspread the entire forecast area Tuesday and
as the front that moved south of the region last night returns as
a warm front we`ll see scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms develop. Best chances will be generally along and
north of the Interstate 4 corridor ahead of the returning
boundary. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and rather muggy conditions
will return with dew points climbing back into the 60s. Overnight
lows tonight will range from the mid 50s far north to mid 60s near
the coast from around Tampa Bay southward. On Tuesday temperatures
will warm back into the mid to upper 70s from around the Interstate
4 corridor northward where the clouds and rain will hold on the
longest, while further south some sun will allow readings to climb
into the lower 80s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...
Aloft - A short wave trough on the western Gulf coast digs into
the Gulf of Mexico then swings across FL to Atlantic coastal
waters during the weekend and continues eastward. In it/s wake a
ridge centered over the Pacific waters off the Baja Peninsula
tracks to TX and northeast Mexico by Mon...and spreads into the
Gulf of Mexico. Surface - One or more low pressure areas...spun up
by the upper trough...track along a frontal boundary draped across
the state. The boundary and it/s associated lows shift east of FL
by Sun as Canadian high pressure builds into the nation/s mid-
section, settling into the Gulf through early next week.

The upper trough, the frontal boundary and lows, along with deep
moisture streaming in from the south and southwest will support
chance to likely showers and slight chance thunderstorms until Sat
when stable and much drier air begins to sweep in from the
northwest and north, with the showers and storms exiting. The low
temperatures start off a bit above normal...drop to normal by Fri
then fall to a few degrees below for the weekend into early next
week. Warm highs slowly cool through normal during the weekend and
drop well below by Mon.

That's a huge miss WD, moreso when freezing temps are involved.

It'll be fine Largo, not much more than a rainmaker which we can all use this time of year.

StAugustineFL wrote:That's a huge miss WD, moreso when freezing temps are involved.

It'll be fine Largo, not much more than a rainmaker which we can all use this time of year.

yes I'm hoping all that is,alot of the tree's here still have big hanging branches broken by Irma still hanging there..so no real bad winds would be appreciated lol..but rain we sure do need.

guess i'll take the Mrs out for a Chinese dinner tonight..getting hungry now lol...good night folks!

Well I hope you and Mrs Largo enjoyed. This is one of them few days it's leftovers and take out food. Fridge is full of Thanksgiving stuff and some prep starts tomorrow.

Good Tuesday Morning Folks!!...well rain chances up thru Friday..we sure can use the rainfall around my area for sure...not and cold here this morning as it was yesterday morning.......well lets see how these rains develop today....have a great day everyone

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Well I hope you and Mrs Largo enjoyed.  This is one of them few days it's leftovers and take out food. Fridge is full of Thanksgiving stuff and some prep starts tomorrow.

thanks Billsfan we sure did..yeah our fridge is the same..jammed full of goodies for Thanksgiving..

well doesn't look like the sun has much of a chance today huh, so far no rain here by me yet...hopefully later on....have YOU had any rain today yet?

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Miami FL
515 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
212215-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
515 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is High Risk of rip currents on Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: An isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out
on Atlantic waters, and along the immediate Atlantic coast today.

Flooding: Minor flooding possible with thunderstorms activity today
in poor drainage areas along the east coast metro.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms over the region
Thanksgiving Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

it looks like Jenny and folks by the big bend might P/U a couple inches of rain with this..

Doubt Tampa Bay will get much out of this

StPeteFLwx wrote:Doubt Tampa Bay will get much out of this

yes I was thinking the same thing st pete..

We got over three inches of rain overnight. Some areas have huge puddles. Yards a few blocks west of me have tons of standing water.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:We got over three inches of rain overnight.  Some areas have huge puddles.  Yards a few blocks west of me have tons of standing water.

wow Billsfan,,its from this warm front moving northward up the state I guess.

well its been light rain here..off and on now,my area really need this.......................

NWS has Changed the Rain chances for today..lowered most but upped some..

the good light soaking in kind of rain here..off and on.................

coming down heavier now in spurts...everything is soaking wet finally LOL

What kind of music did the Pilgrims like?
Plymouth Rock

If April showers bring May flowers, what do May flowers bring?
Pilgrims

Why can't you take a turkey to church?
They use FOWL language.

Why was the Thanksgiving soup so expensive?
It had 24 carrots.

What happened when the turkey got into a fight?
He got the stuffing knocked out of him!

Well looks like the rain went around me today. Just an extremely brief sprinkle, not enough to measure. Chances for tomorrow look like they are dropping. Hope to get some on turkey day.

groaning at Largo' s corny jokes lol

waterdipper wrote:Well looks like the rain went around me today. Just an extremely brief sprinkle, not enough to measure. Chances for tomorrow look like they are dropping. Hope to get some on turkey day.

yes I hope you do get some Thursday WD..good luck ok!!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote: groaning at Largo' s corny jokes lol

LOL

NWS Tampa................Wed Nov 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
Areas of dense fog will remain over the region through the
morning commute. Visibilities will frequently be reduced to less
than one quarter mile. If driving...slow down...use your low beam
headlights...and leave plenty of distance between you and the
vehicle in front of you.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A Gulf storm system will slowly move across the area Thursday through
Friday, with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing locally
heavy rain, gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Davis