CLOSED Florida/Alabama weather and Tropical weather affecting our states

Good Sunday morning folks!!..nothing special rain wise around this morning here..enjoy the sun and 90's temps whew..have a great day everyone!!

Good morning Largo! It's a hot one up here. My thermometer is showing 79 degrees currently....uggh

Morning. No snow forecast in FL today. Who would've thunk?

Rain prospects aren't looking too good for the immediate west coasters as we move into the week per Ruskin. Morning rain chances will be the best opportunity.

Westerly flow will prevail Wednesday through Saturday, with
a familiar pattern developing of a few showers or storms
forming over the eastern Gulf during the early morning
hours, then scattered to numerous thunderstorms building
across the Peninsula during the early afternoon. A strong
west coast sea breeze push will shift storms inland during
the late afternoon and evening. Relatively drier air will
still be lingering over the northern half of the area
Wednesday, but deep moisture will return across the region
Thursday through the rest of the week.

I like checking this out from time to time. US satellite from the past 7 days. Hover over the loop and near the bottom right change the speed to either .25x or .5x to slow it down. It default to 1X. Get crazy and look at 10X. Blink of an eye!

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/movie?loop=true

For those that would like to watch, channel 7 news from Melbourne, Australia is broadcasting live on Facebook and Twitter with the rescue attempt of the boys in Thailand.  I couldn't locate a live Youtube from them, so Facebook/Twitter it is.

Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/7NewsMelbourne/videos/2202389836451804/?hc_ref=ARQs-Rz2579WsgvqHuPhxMK1uA0p0BgSWUFpSD0RTIQTaUtjhPgfOfsSchs_HjGPqDY


Twitter - https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


This is their homepage and they are providing updates here - https://au.news.yahoo.com/

sangria wrote:Good morning Largo!  It's a hot one up here.  My thermometer is showing 79 degrees currently....uggh

good Morning San..yes same here Hot and also very Humid by me whew

NWS Tampa.....Sun Jul 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop during the mid to
late afternoon hours and continue through the early evening. The
greatest coverage of storms will be over and east of the
Interstate 75 corridor. Some of the storms could be strong with
frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Recent heavy rainfall has brought the water level up to above
flood stage on the Alafia River at Lithia...Horse Creek near
Arcadia...and the Peace River at Arcadia. Residents living along
rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware of water
levels and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding be
observed.

not much going in around the state rain wise but it IS kinda early yet huh.

The latest sghetti models for Beryl and NHC stating possible regeneration around the Bahamas before being turned NE.





WTNT42 KNHC 081449
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beryl
earlier this morning was unable to find a closed low-level center.
However, the wind data from the aircraft indicated that a sharp
through did exist northeastward of the deep convection located in
the northeastern quadrant of the larger circulation. Since that
time, a stronger burst of convection has developed over the sharp
trough, and the assumption is that the convection could have
spun up a new center. For that reason, the system is still being
considered as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The highest
850-mb flight-level wind measured was 56 kt in the northeast quad,
which equates to about a 45-kt surface wind. However, the advisory
intensity is being maintained at 40 kt in case the recent convective
development doesn't persist. Another reconnaissance mission into
Beryl is scheduled for this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 290/20 kt. Beryl is expected to
maintain this quick west-northwestward motion through dissipation
due to the strong and broad deep-layer ridge that extends
east-to-west across most of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The
latest model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous
advisory track, so no significant changes were required.

For now, Beryl seems to have found a sweet spot where the vertical
wind shear is a little lower and more difluent based on water vapor
imagery. However, this localized favorable upper-level wind flow
pattern is expected to be short-lived and give way to more hostile
shear conditions by 12 hours and beyond when the shear is forecast
to increase to more than 25 kt from the west. The result should be
a rapid degeneration of the cyclone into an open wave by 24 h when
the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However,
the system will likely produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next couple of days. On days 3-5, there appears to
be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a
tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into
the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are
forecast by most of the models to be light, with even the
possibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone
across the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level
wind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of
28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of
a tropical cyclone, although Beryl's low-level remnants are likely
to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time
to reform.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions
of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts
from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today
or tonight.

2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce
strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 14.4N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  09/0000Z 15.4N  60.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 16.8N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
36H  10/0000Z 18.4N  68.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

do we have anyone here from Pensacola? whew alot of storms near there out in the gulf huh......................................................................................

Billsfan LOOK.........Those poor people in PR are going to get some of Beryl almost for sure now,still some time yet before it gets there...

I read they are being proactive in the Dominica (where JR is going, lol and shutting the water system down to prevent possible damage. Hopefully PR is taking similar precautions.

Good Morning Folks! I guess we are back to our normal summer weather hot with the chance of some scattered afternoon showers, its ok by me lol....have a wonderful day everyone!!

say AUG..are you up there getting any rain etc from TS CHRIS???..one local TV met says we around Tampa Bay may get some rain from him maybe.

well some good news, it seems BERYL has faded down to just a tropical wave, just something to watch right now.

NWS Tampa...532 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Ample moisture combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze
will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing over
the region during the afternoon, with the best storm coverage and
highest rain chances expected to be along and north of the I-4
corridor. Across southwest Florida slightly less thunderstorm
activity is expected due to slightly drier air. Thunderstorms
that develop today will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds,locally heavy rains, and frequent deadly lightning strikes.
If threatening weather approaches your location, move indoors
immediately.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Recent heavy rainfall has pushed the Alafia River at Lithia,
Horse Creek near Arcadia, and the Peace River at Arcadia into
minor flood. Water levels along these rivers are forecast to
slowly fall through tonight, but any heavy rainfall that may
occur over these basin today could bring them back into minor
flood later tonight or Tuesday. All residents living along rivers
or faster flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and
be ready to move to higher ground should flooding be observed.

LargoFL wrote:

this is from NWS San Juan PR Billsfan...they should get thru this somewhat ok..just hopefully no Tornado's huh.

yeah not too much weather news here this morning, lets see how this afternoon turns out rain wise huh

Back from the islands! It's a bit wet down there.

Aug: If you have never driven CR-13, from south of 16 to Hastings, its a drive that I would recommend, when you have some time to see the sights. Beautiful drive in your backyard.

Not expecting too much rain in the next few days. A bit of dryer air has moved in. I could see more stars this morning. (they kinda go away over Pinellas in the summer)

LOL JR- welcome back

HOT and DRY.

Anyone hearing of the possibility that Beryl may regroup as she approaches the Bahamas?

Beryl:
..........environmental conditions could become
somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this
week when the system is forecast to turn northward over the Bahamas
and the western Atlantic. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

with Beryl they are thinking it will be following TS/HC Chris's path and not striking the US coastline..so far anyway

LargoFL wrote:say AUG..are you up there getting any rain etc from TS CHRIS???..one local TV met says we around Tampa Bay may get some rain from him maybe.

Good afternoon Largo et al.

Nope, no rain from Chris here. He's hundreds of miles away. Not sure what met said that but I wouldn't buy what he's selling. Here's a current (as of this post) image showing where the storm is in relation to Florida.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Back from the islands!    It's a bit wet down there.

Aug:  If you have never driven CR-13, from south of 16 to Hastings, its a drive that I would recommend, when you have some time to see the sights.  Beautiful drive in your backyard.

Not expecting too much rain in the next few days.  A bit of dryer air has moved in.  I could see more stars this morning.    (they kinda go away over Pinellas in the summer)

If I need a good Sunday drive I'll keep that in mind JR. I attended a funeral in Palatka several years ago and took that route but can't remember! I do know going north from 16/13 up through Switzerland (not the country) and such there's a stretch of road with plentiful live oaks creating a tunnel so to speak. There's a smaller version at exit 323 going east to US1 on approach to Palencia.

Self updating sat loop.

NWS TAMPA...506 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Drier air moving into the region from the north around the
western periphery of tropical storm Chris well offshore the mid
Atlantic coast early this morning will keep thunderstorm coverage
in the isolated range at best over the Nature Coast counties
today. Across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida
slightly better moisture combined with daytime heating will
support scattered thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze
and outflow boundaries during the afternoon and early evening
hours, with the best storm coverage expected to the south of the
I-4 corridor late in the afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop
today will be capable of producing locally heavy rains, gusty
winds, and frequent lightning strikes. Remember if thunder is
heard or lightning is observed, move indoors immediately.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Alafia river at Lithia, the Horse Creek near Arcadia, and the
Peace river at Zolfo Springs and Arcadia are in action stage
this morning. Water levels along these rivers are forecast to
slowly fall through Wednesday, however any heavy rainfall that
may fall over these basin today could bring about slight rises
in water levels, so all residents living along these rivers
should remain alert and be ready to move to higher ground should
flooding be observed.

Good Tuesday Morning Folks!!...well with drier Air moving in here..way down go my rain chances today-tomorrow..so sprinklers on LOL...good luck to those who DO get some rain,,so far Chris isnt a threat and whats left of Beryl we'll see when and IF it gets up into the Bahama's..Aug i think the local met was talking about some outflow boundary rains from Chris making it down to Florida...well have a great day everyone!!...Blogs COFFEE-TEA-COCOA WILL BE READY WHEN YOU GET HERE...grab a cup relax and sit with us here..where from, whats your weather like etc..its a friendly blog here and thanks.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the
North Carolina Outer Banks.

1. The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain over much of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent
Atlantic waters. This system is expected to move west-northwestward
across the rest of Hispaniola today and over the southeastern
Bahamas this evening. Little development is expected during the
next day or so due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level
winds. However, the disturbance is expected to turn northward over
the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level winds could
become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a tropical
cyclone later this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and
the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

Good afternoon. All quiet locally. I see Chris is beginning its' march up up and away after sitting nearly stationary for a few days.

Largo, I'm certain that image 3 posts above is Hurricane Jeanne from Sept 2004. Many along the east coast were just recovering from Frances then she did the loopty loop before heading due west to add insult to injury only 3 weeks later. Port St Lucie area pretty much took a direct hit from both.

Both those storms had large wind fields. 200 miles to the north it was a pretty good blow with a combined 9 days of no power.

Same here Aug with Frances and Jeanne. No power for 6-7 days with Frances and 3 for Jeanne We were lucky enough to find and buy a generator after Frances. That's most of the East coast of Florida without power And then came 2005!

Good Wednesday morning folks!..well I just had a great down pouring rain here and still light rain, that sure was unexpected, local met is saying only a 10-20% chance..well i got my 10% lol...........tropics wise it doesnt look like anything coming our way anytime soon per the models..so..COFFEE etc is ready when you get here..grab a cup and let us know how it is in YOUR area ok..thanks...have a great day everyone!

NWS TAMPA...400 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected today. These will be isolated over the
Nature Coast but isolated to scattered along and south of the I-4
corridor...with the greater coverage inland. The storms begin to
form in the early afternoon and continue until early evening when
they begin to trend down. Light steering will result in storms
with slow to little movement although they may drift back toward
the coast as the afternoon ends. Thunderstorms that develop will
be capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains
with minor flooding possible due to the slow movement...and
frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Horse Creek near Arcadia and the Peace river at Arcadia are in
action stage this morning. Water levels along these rivers are
forecast to slowly fall during the next few days. However any
heavy rainfall that may fall over these basin today could bring
about slight rises in water levels...so all residents living
along these rivers should remain alert and be ready to move to
higher ground should flooding be observed.

booming outside and i see NWS raised rain chances to 30% now here,folks might stay a lil more alert, seems like alot of Lightning with these storms...

Good Luck Billsfan....NWs MIAMI.....413 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents All Atlantic Beaches...
...Thunderstorms Possible for South Florida Through the Evening Hours...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: Lingering swells from Hurricane Chris will continue to
bring a moderate risk of rip currents along all Atlantic beaches
today.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
across South Florida today, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Coverage will be highest over interior South Florida
with late day boundary collisions. The main threat with any
thunderstorms will be frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable
of producing gusty winds, small hail, and funnel clouds.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible across all South
Florida waters today.

Wind: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing wind
gusts in excess of 50 mph.

Hail: The strongest storms today will be capable of producing small
hail up to dime sized.

Flooding: Slow moving and training storms will lead to the threat
for flooding of streets and poor drainage areas.

LargoFL wrote:Good Wednesday morning folks!..well I just had a great down pouring rain here and still light rain, that sure was unexpected, local met is saying only a 10-20% chance..well i got my 10% lol...........tropics wise it doesnt look like anything coming our way anytime soon per the models..so..COFFEE etc is ready when you get here..grab a cup and let us know how it is in YOUR area ok..thanks...have a great day everyone!

Good morning and congrats on the rain, Largo.

Double light show this morning. Off-shore lightning to the west; oversized final crescent to the east.

Have a good day, everyone.

yeah JR I got a good soaking there for 20 mins or so,,,then around 1-2pm today BIG thunder boomers but just a light dusting..and now just about 3:15,,more booming above and a real dark cloud.

WD-John-SAN......are any of you getting some of these storms also today???

Nothing for me, but I didn't expect any. Anytime I see the word "interior" in the discussion,I know I'm SOL.