FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND THE HOLIDAY SEASON WEATHER

Pulled in a much needed half inch of rain overnight. Love the current forecast: Nothing below 40 and nothing above 80 on the 8-day. Another chance at rain in 5 days.

waterdipper wrote:Good morning all. Got another .50" from the rain and storms yesterday. The rain came in quick hitting lines yesterday with the storm that hit yesterday right at dusk a pretty good one. Strong winds and some intense lightning. That gives me 1.7" so far for Dec. Cool and breezy now. Looks like 30's with a chance of frost the next few nights then the big storm over the weekend before the next cool down for next week. I know only north FL is getting the heavy rainfall so far, but the last few fronts sure feel like El Nino to me. Anybody hear if they are going to declare an El nino anytime soon?

yes we sure needed that good rain last night/early morning for sure.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Pulled in a much needed half inch of rain overnight.  Love the current forecast:  Nothing below 40 and nothing above 80 on the 8-day.  Another chance at rain in 5 days.

yes nice weather ahead until the next front comes

LargoFL wrote:gee Aug, that coming storm sunday might give some good rain amounts..does that met still think it May have some bad winds with it too??

I've not seen him mention strong winds Largo but he has mentioned ice, snow, heavy rains, and possible severe thunderstorms depending what part of the southern or eastern US one lives in. Seems at the moment severe weather isn't a big concern. One can thank the cold front that just moved through bringing in bone dry air the next few days. The atmosphere seems it won't have enough time to "reload" for a significant severe threat. Here's the current thinking from Jax and the Storm Prediction Center.

Jacksonville: .LONG TERM.../Friday thru Tuesday/...
Main focus for the long term is the next storm system that will gain
intensity over the western Gulf Coast region Friday night/Saturday
and work eastward across forecast area Sunday. ECM and GFS in some
agreement in showing a strong southern stream trough that will move
toward the southeastern U.S., inducing surface low development
over the nw Gulf of Mexico that tracks over southern GA and off
the coast Sunday. Widespread rain expected, with decent amounts.
Uncertain if moisture return will bring high enough dew points to
support strong convection. For now limited mention of t-storms to
south of the I-10 corridor Sunday. Cooler drier weather expected
early next week.

Storm Prediction Center:
On Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
southern Plains with southwest mid-level flow in the central Gulf
Coast region. Thunderstorm development should occur ahead of the
trough across the Gulf of Mexico and in the southern Gulf Coast
States. Although a severe threat will be possible, instability is
forecast to remain weak by most of the medium-range model solutions.

...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
The models are in relatively good agreement moving an upper-level
trough across the Gulf of Mexico from Sunday into Monday.
Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough across the
Florida Peninsula on Sunday but this threat should end as a front
advances southward. On Tuesday, cold dry high pressure is forecast
across most of the CONUS which should limit the potential for
thunderstorms.

waterdipper wrote:Good morning all. Got another .50" from the rain and storms yesterday. The rain came in quick hitting lines yesterday with the storm that hit yesterday right at dusk a pretty good one. Strong winds and some intense lightning. That gives me 1.7" so far for Dec. Cool and breezy now. Looks like 30's with a chance of frost the next few nights then the big storm over the weekend before the next cool down for next week. I know only north FL is getting the heavy rainfall so far, but the last few fronts sure feel like El Nino to me. Anybody hear if they are going to declare an El nino anytime soon?

Here's the CPC ENSO update but it's 4 weeks old.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Here's the storm spinning off of California.

7 day QPF.  That's alot of moisture for many.  If my eyes are seeing correctly, 5 entire states (SC, GA, AL, MS, LA) forecast to receive at least 1.5", 3 entire states (NC, TN, AR) forecast to get at least .5", and almost 3 entire states (OK, TX, FL) forecast to get at least .5".   Unfortunately not looking good for bills but it's hard to get rain in south FL this time of year.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
349 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...

.High pressure settles into the region today and will maintain a
cold and dry airmass on north winds.

FLZ239-052100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FZ.A.0013.181206T1000Z-181206T1300Z/
Inland Levy-
Including the cities of Chiefland, Bronson, and Williston
349 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Freeze Watch, which is in effect from late tonight
through Thursday morning.

* TEMPERATURE...31 degrees.

* DURATION...2 to 3 hours.

* IMPACTS...Please take necessary protective actions for crops
and sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
220 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

FLZ024-031-036-GAZ153-165-061300-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FZ.W.0011.181206T0800Z-181206T1300Z/
Inland Nassau-Bradford-Alachua-Inland Glynn-Inland Camden-
Including the cities of Ratliff, Hilliard, Kings Ferry,
Bryceville, Starke, New River, Gainesville, Gainesville Airport,
Newnans Lake, Thalmann, Colesburg, Tarboro, Waverly, and Woodbine
220 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Freeze
Warning, which is in effect from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday.

* TEMPERATURES...30 to 32 degrees.

* TIMING...3 to 5 hours between 4am and 8am Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures could kill sensitive
vegetation and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
expected for at least 2 hours. Appropriate action should be
taken to ensure tender vegetation and outdoor pets have adequate
protection from the cold temperatures. Young children, the
elderly and the homeless are especially vulnerable to the cold.
Take measures to protect them.

&&

$$

Aug lets hope nothing slows this storm down this coming Sunday huh.......

Good Wednesday Morning folks!! a lil chilly here by me this early morning but in reading all the forecasts..it looks like the freeze watch/warnings for our northern/inland area's of Florida...models still have a strong storm coming this weekend, some area's north of tampa bay could..get 5-6 inches of rain,,but we still have 4-5 days yet to see what happens.....well stay warm folks and have a great day ok.

well 56 here right now and not going to warm up much thru the day and tomorrow morning might be colder..but this is about our normal where you should be in december huh..these extra warm 80 temps days have spoiled us somewhat lol..one good thing with these fronts..we are getting some rain and since this is our supposed DRY season..its helping keep down our fire season huh..

Folks the GFS model says sunday's storm is no joke..wind wise too.....................

I really hoping that in the next 3-3 1/2 days the low moves north of FL..whew 5-6 inches of rain??..

OH NO I sure dont LIKE THIS Model run.....................................................

good night folks

LargoFL wrote:I really hoping that in the next 3-3 1/2 days the low moves north of FL..whew 5-6 inches of rain??..

Largo, the map isn't showing 5-6 inches of rain but rather 5-6 millimeters per hour averaged over a 6 hour period per the description atop the map.  If using 6 mm/hr as an example 6 x 6 = 36 millimeters.  There are 25 mm in an inch.  Divide 36/25 = 1.44" of rain for that particular model output over a 6 hour period.  The duration of the storm would likely be greater than 6 hours so rainfall totals are likely to be higher overall than 1.44".  Jax is forecasting widespread 1-2" with 3-4" in south Georgia.  Of course any thunderstorms or heavy rain bands training over a certain area could lead to localized pockets of higher totals.

Here's a little graph on NASA I found to be helpful.

Type of Storm                Rate
Light Rain                      2 - 4 mm/hr
Moderate                       5 - 9 mm/hr
Heavy                           10 - 40 mm/hr
Violent                          more than 50 mm/hr

And for a little fun, here's an example of a math problem they posted.

Problem 1 – Suppose the local news said that 1.6 inches of rain fell between 8:00
am and 1:00 pm. What type of storm was this? (1 inch = 25 mm)

Answer: The depth of the rain was 1.6 inches x 25 mm/ 1 inch = 40 mm. This fell in the time
between 8:00 am and 1:00 pm which is 5 hours, so the rate was 40 mm/5 hours = 8 mm/hr.
This type of storm would be considered a moderate storm.

Cool day here in the mid to upper 50's. Mid 30's tonight but the freezing temps are expected more in the interior.

Snip from Jax for WD and El-Nino. 2nd time Jax has mentioned El-Nino in the past week.

Sat/Sun...Models still trying to refine the details but overall a
strong southerly jet, very much in line with the developing El
Nino conditions in the Pacific will develop a strong low pressure
over the Northern GOMEX on Saturday with expected track eastward
along the FL Panhandle Sat Night and crossing somewhere across NE
FL/SE GA while intensifying on Sunday.

StAugustineFL wrote:

LargoFL wrote:I really hoping that in the next 3-3 1/2 days the low moves north of FL..whew 5-6 inches of rain??..

Largo, the map isn't showing 5-6 inches of rain but rather 5-6 millimeters per hour averaged over a 6 hour period per the description atop the map.  If using 6 mm/hr as an example 6 x 6 = 36 millimeters.  There are 25 mm in an inch.  Divide 36/25 = 1.44" of rain for that particular model output over a 6 hour period.  The duration of the storm would likely be greater than 6 hours so rainfall totals are likely to be higher overall than 1.44".  Jax is forecasting widespread 1-2" with 3-4" in south Georgia.  Of course any thunderstorms or heavy rain bands training over a certain area could lead to localized pockets of higher totals.

Here's a little graph on NASA I found to be helpful.

Type of Storm                Rate
Light Rain                      2 - 4 mm/hr
Moderate                       5 - 9 mm/hr
Heavy                           10 - 40 mm/hr
Violent                          more than 50 mm/hr

And for a little fun, here's an example of a math problem they posted.

Problem 1 – Suppose the local news said that 1.6 inches of rain fell between 8:00
am and 1:00 pm. What type of storm was this? (1 inch = 25 mm)

Answer: The depth of the rain was 1.6 inches x 25 mm/ 1 inch = 40 mm. This fell in the time
between 8:00 am and 1:00 pm which is 5 hours, so the rate was 40 mm/5 hours = 8 mm/hr.
This type of storm would be considered a moderate storm.

oh ok now i see that on the top..thanks for explaining Aug!!

Good Thursday Morning Folks!! a cold 44 degree's here by me right now but..as i walked my dogs i did notice the strong winds have died down..whew yesterday they blew strong here..made it feel..so much colder that it really was...we have a great day everyone!

BRRR! Cold, 30 degree frosty morning here at the house today at 6:30 AM. I expect it dropped a couple more degrees since I left, but not a hard freeze like I hope we get every winter to knock back the undesirable plants and animals. I was surprised when I got to work to find ice in the bottom of my work boat and frost all over the work truck, and they are parked right on the water in Cedar Key. It should warm up to around 60 today however, with full sunshine. Next front looks scheduled for the weekend again with a potential for heavy rainfall on Sunday and cool temps back early next week.

waterdipper wrote:BRRR! Cold, 30 degree frosty morning here at the house today at 6:30 AM. I expect it dropped a couple more degrees since I left, but not a hard freeze like I hope we get every winter to knock back the undesirable plants and animals.  I was surprised when I got to work to find ice in the bottom of my work boat and frost all over the work truck, and they are parked right on the water in Cedar Key. It should warm up to around 60   today however, with full sunshine. Next front looks scheduled for the weekend again with a potential for heavy rainfall on Sunday and cool temps back early next week.

wow, my guess is they were parked by the water, might have been some fog or dew that added to the moisture in the air..and freezing down on the boat/truck. whew your right about a hard freeze getting rid of some bad things up there..down by me i'd have to work hard covering all my tropicals etc.

(clipped)...NWS Jacksonville....SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday...

There will be an increase in cloudiness on Friday as the
prevailing flow shifts about to a more southerly direction,
resulting in higher dew points and warmer temperatures with high
daytime temperatures reaching into the 60s and with overnight lows
ranging from the low 40s to the low 50s. On Saturday, the low
pressure system will start to push into the area bringing showers
and thunderstorms over the course of the weekend. Forecasted
rainfall amounts vary between 1.5-3.0 inches which, combined with
the already saturated conditions for many areas, could result in
continued river flooding and potential localized flooding. High
temperatures for the weekend will range between the 60s and 70s,
with overnight lows dropping from the mid 50s on Saturday to the
low 40s on Sunday, with the passage of the front.

(clipped) NWS Tampa...Long Term (Friday Night - Thursday)...
High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through
Saturday as an area of low pressure moves east across the
northern Gulf and into the FL Panhandle. Winds veer from the
east to the south and increase in speed Saturday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the system. The front
with this system moves through the area on Sunday bringing
showers and a few thunderstorms with it. A little cooler and
drier air moves in behind it on NW winds, but the upper
trough remains over the region through early Tuesday. The
upper trough finally kicks out later Tuesday, and the real
cooler and drier air moves into the area as high pressure
builds into the SE US. Winds then shift to the east
Wednesday afternoon and SE Thursday as the high pressure
center shifts east over the Atlantic. Lows rise well above
normal for Saturday night, then fall around 10 degrees below
normal for Monday and Tuesday nights, and warming through
the end of the period. Highs start a couple of degrees above
normal, then fall below normal for Monday through
Wednesday, with Tuesday the coldest afternoon. Back to near
normal for Thursday.

(clipped) NWS Miami...As the weekend kicks off, the next front will emerge over the Gulf
with the surface low hugging the northern Gulf coast. At the mid-
levels, a shortwave trough ahead of the parent cut off low will
help spur the surface feature forward. The front will push across
South Florida Sunday into Monday with the surface low tracking up
the Atlantic off the eastern seaboard. Drier, cooler air will
return again by Tuesday as the front exits into the Bahamas and
Cuba. The trailing mid-level trough should have little impact on
sensible weather over South Florida mid-week as it remains north
on its eastward progression. There is some split in the guidance
solutions with this feature, but it should be relatively
inconsequential to our forecast.

Surface high pressure and zonal flow at the mid-levels return to
close out the forecast period with generally drier, cooler
conditions expected. The next frontal boundary will begin emerging
over the central United States but its potential impacts to South
Florida extend beyond the forecast period at this point.

Looks like it officially only got down to 40 in my area, but there was patchy frost on the boardwalk near me in the park (mangrove tidal zone). Temp dropped into the 30's as I drove inland toward work.

LargoFL wrote:(clipped) NWS Tampa...Long Term (Friday Night - Thursday)...
High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through
Saturday as an area of low pressure moves east across the
northern Gulf and into the FL Panhandle. Winds veer from the
east to the south and increase in speed Saturday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the system. The front
with this system moves through the area on Sunday bringing
showers and a few thunderstorms with it. A little cooler and
drier air moves in behind it on NW winds, but the upper
trough remains over the region through early Tuesday. The
upper trough finally kicks out later Tuesday, and the real
cooler and drier air moves into the area as high pressure
builds into the SE US. Winds then shift to the east
Wednesday afternoon and SE Thursday as the high pressure
center shifts east over the Atlantic. Lows rise well above
normal for Saturday night, then fall around 10 degrees below
normal for Monday and Tuesday nights, and warming through
the end of the period. Highs start a couple of degrees above
normal, then fall below normal for Monday through
Wednesday, with Tuesday the coldest afternoon. Back to near
normal for Thursday.

This touches one of my pet peeves.  Normal vs average.  I believe that it's rather normal for this time of year to have lows range from the 40's to the 60's, and highs from the 60's to the 70's.  Just because the average is 55 & 70 doesn't mean 50 & 75 are not normal.  

well for the first time i had to put the Heat on to heat the house up..cold really got to me early this morning.

well just about 2:30pm and its warmed up to about 63 here by me

well to me, Sunday looks to be a wet and windy day for most pf Florida....

St Pete, a local met posted this for OUR weather on Sunday...........'Cloudy, a couple of showers and a heavy t-storm; humid; thunderstorms can be strong, perhaps severe' and he thinks our High here will be around 75

wow a Rare White Reindeer appears up in Norway..what a beautiful Animal huh.........

LargoFL wrote:St Pete, a local met posted this for OUR weather on Sunday...........'Cloudy, a couple of showers and a heavy t-storm; humid; thunderstorms can be strong, perhaps severe'     and he thinks our High here will be around 75          

Yep, warming up again. Got the rye grass growing in the yard, if we get rain its really going to take off

Here's the November climate report.  A little cooler and wetter in the panhandle, hot everywhere else. Jax and Key West broke record highs set 130 years ago. Key West also had a high minimum record of 81°!

Florida Climate Center

JRnOldsmar wrote:

LargoFL wrote:(clipped) NWS Tampa...Long Term (Friday Night - Thursday)...
High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through
Saturday as an area of low pressure moves east across the
northern Gulf and into the FL Panhandle. Winds veer from the
east to the south and increase in speed Saturday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the system. The front
with this system moves through the area on Sunday bringing
showers and a few thunderstorms with it. A little cooler and
drier air moves in behind it on NW winds, but the upper
trough remains over the region through early Tuesday. The
upper trough finally kicks out later Tuesday, and the real
cooler and drier air moves into the area as high pressure
builds into the SE US. Winds then shift to the east
Wednesday afternoon and SE Thursday as the high pressure
center shifts east over the Atlantic. Lows rise well above
normal for Saturday night, then fall around 10 degrees below
normal for Monday and Tuesday nights, and warming through
the end of the period. Highs start a couple of degrees above
normal, then fall below normal for Monday through
Wednesday, with Tuesday the coldest afternoon. Back to near
normal for Thursday.

This touches one of my pet peeves.  Normal vs average.  I believe that it's rather normal for this time of year to have lows range from the 40's to the 60's, and highs from the 60's to the 70's.  Just because the average is 55 & 70 doesn't mean 50 & 75 are not normal.  

Good observation. Not a pet peeve but a general observation about the human psyche and how our minds work. One can have a low of 50 and think "Ah, in the 50's, feels nice". Then if 49, "These 40's are frigid!" All over one degree.

StPeteFLwx wrote:Here's the November climate report.  A little cooler and wetter in the panhandle, hot everywhere else. Jax and Key West broke record highs set 130 years ago. Key West also had a high minimum record of 81°!

Florida Climate Center

I find it interesting a good part of NE FL is in a D0 or D1 drought per the CPC map. There haven't been many extended dry spells to my recollection with precip coming in fairly regularly.

Meanwhile South Florida is dry as a bone. Got up to 77 today. Pleasant ! Was high 50’s this morning.

Good early Friday morning and TGIF !!!!..not as cold here by me this early morning..53 degree's..our warm up begins today and so far it sticks around till mon-tues next week..well have a great day folks!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Meanwhile South Florida is dry as a bone.  Got up to 77 today.  Pleasant !  Was high 50’s this morning.

I'm Glad its finally cooled down some for your Area Billsfan at last huh

st pete..we should get some rain thru the day on Sunday..hope we get close to an inch here..had to put the sprinklers on this morning, so dry the ground is.

NWs Melbourne...DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Low pressure is forecast to move east along the Gulf Coast
Saturday and across north Florida Sunday and swing a strong cold
front across central Florida by Sunday night. This front will be
preceded by a fast moving band of showers and possibly embedded
storms. While instability looks limited, strong winds and forcing
aloft will bring a risk of strong to possibly severe storms to
the area on Sunday. The primary concern is strong straight line
winds though an isolated tornado is possible.

StAugustineFL wrote:

StPeteFLwx wrote:Here's the November climate report.  A little cooler and wetter in the panhandle, hot everywhere else. Jax and Key West broke record highs set 130 years ago. Key West also had a high minimum record of 81°!

Florida Climate Center

I find it interesting a good part of NE FL is in a D0 or D1 drought per the CPC map.  There haven't been many extended dry spells to my recollection with precip coming in fairly regularly.

Perhaps lingering from October, Jax was -2.63 below normal for rainfall (or average)

could it be this global warming will change things, like who gets what-when?..i read something in a european science site that says if..all the ice melts in greenland..the oceans will rise about 23 feet...yesterday i double checked..my house sits at 33 ft above sea level...unless things change..the future where you younger folks actually live and work could change in the next 20-40 years..places like new york city etc..gone and i imagine alot of florida too huh

I can see a big change already..im now 69 and in the 50's in winter, they measured the snowfall in feet and THAT was in NYC...every winter just about we always got snowfall 16 inches of more....now a big snowfall is 6-9 inches..this is just MY own personal opinion on the weather when I was a boy..some of you may have memories of how the weather was when YOU were a youngster huh...some type of weather your area used to get normally..isnt what they get there today....the earth is always changing, no matter what the "human EXPERTS" say..the earth gets hot periods.the earth gets Cold periods..etc...we humans survived this long..because we adapted to the changes..once we stop adapting, like now trying to stop global warming..im afraid we're done for..the end

and remembering Pearl Harbor..rest in peace, those who died in this horrible sneak attack.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
341 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
In the upper levels, a shortwave trough over the Desert
Southwest will cross the Southern Plains today and the Gulf
Coast tonight and Sunday. At the surface, this shortwave is
driving a developing area of low pressure over Texas and the
western Gulf of Mexico, which will lift northeast towards
the Florida Panhandle today, dragging a cold front through
the Gulf of Mexico. Over the Florida Peninsula, east winds
today will gradually turn to southerly by tonight, allowing
temperatures to continue to climb, topping out this
afternoon several degrees above normal with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s under rain free skies.

Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will lead to
atmospheric moisture building ahead of the frontal passage,
resulting in scattered to numerous showers and storms
moving into the Nature Coast late tonight and spreading
south through west central and southwest Florida through the
day on Sunday. Strong wind shear will allow for the
possibility of a few strong and damaging thunderstorms with
this system.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night - Friday)...
Sunday night, the cold front will push south out of the
forecast area and into the Florida Straits with any
lingering showers or storms coming to an end. A second
shortwave trough aloft will swoop southeast from the Central
Plains into the southeastern US Sunday night through
Tuesday, providing a secondary push of cold air into the
Florida Peninsula. While temperatures will be noticeably
cooler Monday morning (especially over the Nature Coast),
cold air advection will only increase Monday and Tuesday,
with highs only expected to reach into the low to mid 60s by
Tuesday afternoon. Morning lows Tuesday and Wednesday will
drop into the upper 30s over interior portions of the Nature
Coast, and 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

Broad surface high pressure will build into the Southeastern
states Tuesday behind the front, and push east into the
Atlantic by the end of the week. This will allow winds to
turn to northeast to easterly Wednesday, ending the cold air
advection, with moderating temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

A strong upper level trough will move east into the
southeastern US Friday, bringing another, potentially
stronger, cold front into the eastern Gulf by Friday.
This far in advance, global models do not yet agree on the
exact timing of this system, but for now it looks like there
will be an increased risk of showers and storms over the
Florida Peninsula on Friday ahead of the front.

&&