Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by emcf30 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 7:24 am

LESLIE

Leslie continues to churn over the Atlantic slowly heading towards Bermuda.
After being decoupled for several days yesterday Leslie finally started to put some clothes on and was looking much better.






Although Leslie was looking much better she did not manage to gain any strength throughout the day. After she worked so had all day, the convection is now being blown to the East once again by 20 knot plus shear. This shear is predicted to relax within the next 24 to 48 hours which would allow Leslie to strengthen before making a run at Bermuda.

The current NHC forecast track.



Bermuda is under there somewhere.



Leslie will continue to bring high surf and rip currents all along the East Coast. Folks in the Mid Atlantic States will have to continue to keep an eye out on Leslie as she tries to determine which vehicle she is going to use to move out.

MICHAEL



Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the far east Atlantic. He currently is a very tiny storm and is no threat to anyone.



000
WTNT43 KNHC 050840
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSATE NEAR AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER LOCATION...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY IS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF ABOUT 20 KT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DURING THAT TIME...ONLY SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THIS
TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY 48 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME INTENSIFICATION BY THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04...AS MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE
RESPONDING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES BY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND LIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 28.1N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 28.6N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 30.7N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 33.0N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 34.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

GHOST OF ISAAC

What can I say. Isaac was, and continues to be a pain in the ass. After reaking havoc along the Gulf Coast States a week ago. After making landfall in Louisiana he continues to cause damage and flooding throughout the Central and Eastern US. Post Isaac has caused a number of Tornadoes including this one last night in Cherry Hill, NJ.



Parts of Isaac got absorbed up into a cold front which is causing the severe weather up North while the main remnants split off and continues heading towards the South. This area has been designated 90L. Several models continue to show development of this area.










On another note. The GFS is going through another upgrade today

echnical Implementation Notice 12-42
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
330 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2012

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
-Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From: Tim McClung
Science Plans Branch Chief
Office of Science and Technology

Subject: Change in Land Surface Model in Global Forecast
System and Associated Cool and Moist Bias in Near
Surface Temperature and Moisture Fields

Beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model
run on Wednesday, September 5, 2012, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations will implement
a fix to the Land Surface Model used to drive the Global Forecast
System (GFS). This correction is expected to improve the cool
and moist bias in the near surface air temperature and moisture
fields during the warm season.

Starting in mid-June 2012, NCEP confirmed a problem with the GFS
near-surface temperature and moisture simulations. The model was
not verifying in the late afternoon over the central United
States when drought conditions existed. Specifically, users noted
a significant 2m cold and wet bias in both the MOS and GFS
gridded products. The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
traced the problem to a look-up table used in the land surface
scheme that modulates evapotranspiration based on vegetation type
and root zone depth. Current settings allowed for excessive
transpiration and plant-extraction of soil moisture from deeper
soil layers, which caused the lower atmospheric boundary layer to
become too moist and cool.


Last edited by emcf30 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:30 am; edited 1 time in total
avatar
emcf30

Posts : 975
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by GrillinInTheEye on Wed Sep 05, 2012 7:54 am

Thanks for the update E. And all the work you put into them. Smile
avatar
GrillinInTheEye

Posts : 153
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-17
Age : 49

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by scouter534 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 9:31 am

Thanks E. Great update. If Isaac reforms, does he keep the same name?
avatar
scouter534

Posts : 128
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 56
Location : Pompano Beach, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by scouter534 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 10:30 am

To answer my own question. From NOAA NWS FB page.

There have been quite a few inquiries about whether the name "Isaac" would be given to the area of disturbed weather currently located along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, if it were to develop into a tropical cyclone. The short answer is no, it would get a new name.

Our analysis of the satellite, surface, and lower-tropospheric radiosonde data suggested that the disturbance we're currently following originated within Isaac's broad circulation, but that it had its own surface pressure minimum distinct from Isaac's. This was perhaps most apparent late in the day on Monday, when the residual surface center of Isaac was located over western Kentucky while a second weak low was located over northern Mississippi and Alabama. Isaac's circulation continued to weaken after that and became difficult to track, while the new disturbance moved slowly toward the Gulf coast. So what basically happened here is that a little piece of Isaac broke away and moved south.

OK, now everybody get your lawyer and grammar hats on. The National Weather Service rule that applies here reads: "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name".

Notice the rule says "the" remnant, and not "a" remnant. This means that the storm's primary remnant (and not just any old part of it) has to re-develop in order for the name to be retained. Since the primary remnant of Isaac was still in Kentucky when the new low formed and broke away, the rule dictates that the new low is not entitled to the name Isaac.

This rule actually makes a lot of sense. If a storm died and each of two parts re-developed, we couldn't give the same name to both parts. Only the primary remnant would retain the name, while a lesser remnant or part would get a new name.
avatar
scouter534

Posts : 128
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 56
Location : Pompano Beach, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by GrillinInTheEye on Wed Sep 05, 2012 10:48 am

That actually makes sense. Thanks Scout.
avatar
GrillinInTheEye

Posts : 153
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-17
Age : 49

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by sangria on Wed Sep 05, 2012 12:27 pm

Great update e....thanks!!

Did not get a chance to read it this morning....just now catching up....can't believe ex Isaac is 90L, in the Gulf!!!
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1670
Reputation : 50
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by emcf30 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 5:49 pm

I am impressed. Future Nadine????



Some models take it up to Tropical Storm Strength, just at Hurricane Strength.



Early Cycle Track runs



GFS Ensembles




avatar
emcf30

Posts : 975
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by emcf30 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:32 am

Michael flexing his muscles early this morning. Underwent Rapid Intensification.



First Major Hurricane of the season

5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 6
Location: 29.6°N 41.7°W
Moving: NE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

avatar
emcf30

Posts : 975
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by scouter534 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:55 am

Thanks for the update. Michael is little. He's cute.
avatar
scouter534

Posts : 128
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 56
Location : Pompano Beach, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by sangria on Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:21 am

Thanks e.......what a beautiful sat image of Michael.....
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1670
Reputation : 50
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by emcf30 on Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:23 am

Pathetic little 90L

avatar
emcf30

Posts : 975
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by sangria on Sat Sep 08, 2012 8:10 am

Guess he is now known as the "ghost of the ghost of Isaac".....
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1670
Reputation : 50
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Leslie, Michael, and the Ghost of Isaac.

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum