CLOSED Beginning of 2018 Tropical Season for Florida

StAugustineFL wrote:Another great Levi update.  The young man has a sharp mind.

Very pleasant day up here.  Not a hint of rain, comfortable temps, and a nice breeze.  Per Levi's vid and some NWS discussions, there's going to be a dry slot somewhere tempering rain for a spell.  WPC is also now going lower in their overall QPF for parts of the peninsula.

Yep, and that dry slot is ME!

sangria wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:Another great Levi update.  The young man has a sharp mind.

Very pleasant day up here.  Not a hint of rain, comfortable temps, and a nice breeze.  Per Levi's vid and some NWS discussions, there's going to be a dry slot somewhere tempering rain for a spell.  WPC is also now going lower in their overall QPF for parts of the peninsula.

Yep, and that dry slot is ME!

Too early to say that!

Alberto Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL012018
515 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

FLZ050-270515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TR.W.1001.180526T2115Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KTBW.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Pinellas-
515 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- St. Petersburg
- Clearwater
- Largo

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Sunday morning until early Sunday
afternoon

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
above ground.
- PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become
overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
in places where surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/tbw

$$

well it seems like the fun should begin by my area around 2-4 am sunday if im reading the models right. WD-PT-St Pete and all of us in the TS warnings....good luck and stay safe ok!!

Greetings everyone! Reporting in from South Pasco and it’s been raining here since around 1pm consistently. Looks like we are in for a long 2018 season

Thanks for checking in RJ. Let us know tomorrow if you can .

I just dumped two more inches today, and raining again. Lost track of total this month.

Checked our radar a few hours ago, Cuba getting inundated by rains.

Looking at the current 1am radar out of Key West it looks like the COC is about 100mi east of the forecasted track. We could be in for a long Sunday around here in Tampa.

rjla67 wrote:Looking at the current 1am radar out of Key West it looks like the COC is about 100mi east of the forecasted track. We could be in for a long Sunday around here in Tampa.

good morning RJ,its now about 5:30 am sunday, and here in pinellas, its real windy and light rain,looks like we have a couple of stormy days ahead..good luck up there and stay safe ok!!

Alberto Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL012018
514 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

FLZ050-271715-
/O.CON.KTBW.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Pinellas-
514 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- St. Petersburg
- Clearwater
- Largo

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

..FL through southeast GA...

Subtropical storm Alberto is forecast by the NHC to advance north
and northwest through the eastern Gulf. Satellite imagery shows
middle to upper-level dry air entraining into the west and southern
portions of the storm, and this should increase the chance of
diabatic heating in between the outer convective bands today. A
broad low-level jet east of the center will augment 0-2 km
hodographs over the southern two thirds of the FL Peninsula during
peak heating, supporting a threat for mini supercells capable of a
few tornadoes later today. At least a marginal risk for a couple of
tornadoes will extend farther north into southeast GA by late
afternoon or evening.

..Dial/Marsh.. 05/27/2018

A Storm Surge Watch is posted for Citrus County, mainly for Crystal River northward, for Sunday. A storm surge of 3 feet is possible at high tide midday Sunday for Crystal River and the coast of Citrus County. A little further north, Cedar Key could have a significant storm surge of 4-5 feet at high tide.

A storm surge is also possible on the Pinellas side of Tampa Bay with an east wind overnight, the Shore Acres area of St. Petersburg could experience some high water into Sunday.

The east end of Bayshore Blvd in Tampa could also experience high water around high tide at 1 pm.

Good Sunday morning folks!!...well a storm rainy day ahead for us here..I hope everyone is prepared by now and we all stay safe thru this as the TS hopefully passes by our Locations...guess i'll put on 2 pots of the Blogs coffee-Tea-cocoa..hunker down and enjoy....have a Safe day today!!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
453 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

FLZ069-070-271000-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
453 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL
600 AM EDT...

* At 452 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower 10 miles
south of Cape Romano, or 17 miles south of Marco Island, moving
north at 30 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds will be possible with
this shower.

* Locations impacted include...
Naples, Marco Island, Golden Gate Estates, Cape Romano, Belle
Meade, Marco Island Airport, Naples Manor, Golden Gate, East
Naples, Lely Resort, West Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, Vineyards,
Royal Palm Hammock, North Naples, Pelican Bay, Lely, Rookery Bay
Aquatic Preserve, Goodland, Fiddlers Creek and Key Marco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2624 8184 2625 8163 2578 8155 2581 8161
2577 8167 2581 8175 2589 8179 2608 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 167DEG 27KT 2570 8165

$$

KELLY

Good morning everyone!

That all afternoon sprinkle yesterday netted me .11" in the gauge.  Looking at radar, it looks like another spotty day as far as rain is concerned.  Two decent bands, one mostly offshore in the gulf and one mostly offshore in the Atlantic. both bringing in light patches of rain over coastal regions.

Another recon plane is en route to Alberto again to, we'll see if he has decided to spit out a new center again... it will be nice when he settles down and holds on to one center - it makes forecasting a bit difficult for NHC.

Based on water vapor, he hasn't started to wrap in any of the dry air to his west yet, but that is a possibility if he gets better organized.   Hope everyone enjoys the day as best you can today!

Morning.  I see Alberto moving steadily parallel to the west coast with the center on radar approaching Tampa's latitude.  Latest HRRR is going bonkers in bills area.  10-20" of rain through tonight.  I suspect that's considerably overdone.

Static loop

For comparison - 24 hour WPC QPF.

Ha! HRRR must be smoking something good!!

sangria wrote:Ha!   HRRR must be smoking something good!!

Yep! The 10Z cut those totals to more realistic amounts but still on the order of 5-7"

Recon transmitted first Vortex message from this mission....

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 11:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2018
Storm Name: Alberto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 11:15:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°28'N 84°25'W (26.4667N 84.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 159 statute miles (256 km) to the W (266°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,396m (4,580ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSW (204°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 346° at 35kts (From the NNW at 40.3mph)
G. Location of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WSW (250°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WSW (250°) from the flight level center at 11:03:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 35° at 20kts (From the NE at 23mph)

well coming up on a half inch since midnight here..on and off showers and winds are beginning to get a tad stronger here, supposedly wind gusts might get up to 50mph later this afternoon..we'll see how this plays out

Nice period of rain moving in here. Hope to get 1/2" out of it.

BILLSFAN STAY EXTRA ALERT....storm getting stronger below you ok..stay safe.......................Severe Thunderstorm Warning
FLC086-271415-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0012.180527T1338Z-180527T1415Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
938 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 1015 AM EDT.

* At 938 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of Mahogany Hammock, or 15 miles northeast of Flamingo, moving
north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
The Redland, Pa-Hay-
Okee Overlook, Royal Palm Ranger and Everglades National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into a
closet or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2524 8084 2561 8075 2555 8054 2519 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1338Z 198DEG 27KT 2528 8074

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

13

well im in a dry spot right now here but more storms coming in awhile.................

2nd Vortex msg from Recon plane, looks like he is moving due North....

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 13:37Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2018
Storm Name: Alberto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 13:15:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°49'N 84°25'W (26.8167N 84.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 144 statute miles (232 km) to the SW (236°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,377m (4,518ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 135° at 49kts (From the SE at 56.4mph)
G. Location of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.36 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) which was observed 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 12:55:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 11kts (From the SSE at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center

Is everyone in their area's OK so far?

LargoFL wrote:

how it looks close to my area..this is Madeira beach cam.

on that cam pic i notice most of the sand beach looks to be under water whew.

Nice satellite loop here. Click the "play" button beneath the image.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

ok raining pretty good here now by me and winds are getting a tad stronger

LargoFL wrote:Is everyone in their area's OK so far?

Only a steady rain with calm winds in my area.

StAugustineFL wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Is everyone in their area's OK so far?

Only a steady rain with calm winds in my area.

thats good Aug alot of bad weather still down in south florida.

I guess it rained quite hard overnight, woke hubby up at 4. Coming down moderately right now, then we may get a break. ?
Wind blew one of my plant baskets off a table, had to be a decent gust as its pretty heavy as it's saturated.
Our BBQ plans of rotisserie chicken on the grill have been scrapped lol.
Good luck everyone!

Looking at the radar Largo posted above you may be able to get your BBQ in this afternoon.

Locally, checking radar and short term models seems it'll just be a cloudy, sprinkly afternoon. Rain band is about to move out.

Hi Aug . We would be starting to cook now as we like to eat our big meal around 2-3 on weekends. Plus I didn't make potato salad etc.... We figured we'd get rained out so plan B it is. Pick up chicken wings .

wow just look at how far away from the center most of the heavy storms are whew...

well on and off light rain here..just overcast and breezy..this isnt too bad at all here by me so far.

Honestly, it looks like more of an east coast event(in reference to the peninsula).  The west coast will pick up a little bit, but for a good deal of the time will be dry slotted.  WPC Total rainfall forecast through 7amEDT Tuesday morning.....




The 7 day QPF looks better with the south winds and the lingering moisture this upcoming week...

A break in the rain. Over 2.25 since last night.

So far so good. Currently Alberto is 129 miles off the coast of Tampa and looking at radar, the east coast is getting way more action then on the west coast.