CLOSED Beginning of 2018 Tropical Season for Florida

These storms mean business. Torrential rain and 50kt winds.Looks like a good day to stay indoors.

Morning. Just a quick drive-by while taking a break from work. Radar estimates are really adding up over the coastal areas in WD's neck of the woods. I'm seeing 4"+

Rains are heading this way but the HRRR seems consistent on weakening them considerably before arriving here leaving me with light showers. We shall see what happens.

waterdipper wrote:These storms mean business. Torrential rain and 50kt winds.Looks like a good day to stay indoors.

Wowza WD! be safe!

Hot and sticky down here. Would like the cloud cover back.

HRRR proved correct up here. Big fizzle as it modeled. May have gotten .05"

Looking at sat bills the southern part of FL is cooking in full sun minus a few areas. Hope your area has since received some cloud cover. It stayed in the 70's here all day.

Looking at the image I posted last, the outflow boundary moving south in the GOM is pretty cool. I love seeing stuff like that. Not sure if the image is static or dynamic though. If dynamic someone could check in 8 hours from now and wonder what the heck I'm talking about, lol.

Good evening blog. CoCo indicates a total of 2.40” today with the predominant portion before noontime.

Evening everyone! Nice chunk o rain up north today, hope you enjoyed WD!

Talked to my folks and they got 4" at the hacienda, while I ended up with .62". I was so busy with work today that I honestly didn't pay attention and the rain happened without my being totally aware....lol.

Looks like the flow is going to be weak the rest of this week, so I imagine the interior will be the winner. I won't complain, I'll take my little drop in the bucket and be happy.

Cool image Aug!
Congrats on rain San.
Just got a little sprinkle .And glorious clouds lol

NWS Miami.........Thu Jun 7 2018

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME STRONG...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the
peninsula this afternoon. The primary threat is cloud to ground
lightning, but isolated strong thunderstorms will be capable of
producing high winds and small hail.

Wind: Some of the stronger thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable
of producing winds up to 55 mph.

Hail: Thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of dropping small
hail.

Waterspouts: Thunderstorms could produce waterspouts on the Atlantic
waters and Lake Okeechobee later today.

Temperature: Heat index values may reach the low 100s across
portions of Miami-Dade, eastern Collier and Broward counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the
afternoons. The focus will be toward the interior Friday into early
next week. The primary threat will be lightning, although gusty winds
and locally heavy rain are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and waterspouts to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

NWS Melbourne....Thu Jun 7 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Sufficient moisture coupled with a weak surface trough developing
over north Florida, and an upper level weather disturbance will
lead to another round of numerous showers and lightning storms
across east central Florida today, mainly during the afternoon and
early evening.

Today`s storms will move east at 10 to 15 MPH, and will be capable
of producing wind gusts in excess of 40 MPH, frequent cloud to
ground lightning, and torrential rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
in a 60 to 90 minute period. Move indoors to safety at the first
sign of threatening weather, or if you hear thunder.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms will have the potential to produce wind gusts of 35 knots
or greater over inland lakes as well as the intracoastal and near
shore Atlantic waters, especially from around Cape Canaveral
southward. Mariners should be on the lookout for storms
approaching from the west, and they move eastward at 10 to 15
knots. Move to safe harbor in advance of storms.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Coverage of showers and storms will remain above normal through
Saturday, then decrease next week as the local air mass becomes
slightly drier.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

$$

Cristaldi

Good Thursday Morning folks!!....well i got a huge down pouring heavy rain just a lil after Noon yesterday..wow that was wonderful...it filled my birdbath to the top in under 15 minutes lol..well it was much needed...I hope everyone got some rain, now today south florida may get into the rain action...good luck down there ok...well Coffee-Tea-Cocoa will be ready when you get here..grab a cup and enjoy before rushing off to work...have a great day everyone!

Good cofffee this AM Largo. Woke up today to a light rain this AM. It is dark and rumbling offshore to my west and it looks like another wet morning. I ended up with 1.5" out of the rain yesterday. The wind blew a lot of small twigs and branches out of the trees, but nothing of significance.

We are now in the AM T-storm pattern here in the Nature Coast. It normally happens later in the summer during July, so this is a good month early that the pattern is showing itself. The AM rain pattern some years lasts for a couple of months, other years it is only temporary, but this pattern really produces the majority of the rainfall in the Nature Coast during the Summer months. It also often times leads to flooding as the pattern really dumps a lot of rainfall and many times cells train over the same area. Hopefully we don't see anything like that this year, but with all this tropical air hanging around it is kind of looking like it might happen sometime this summer.

good morning WD!!..yes Coffee came out great this early morning, well glad you got some good rain yesterday too..im waiting to see if Billsfan's area gets some too.

nws Tampa...hu Jun 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms will develop across portions of southwest and west
central Florida. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Storms will gradually
diminish overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each day. The strongest
storms may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall leading to minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

McKaughan

GFS Model, looks like a storm in the gulf in 6-7 days,panhandle folks watch this one...

CMC model also agree's with GFS in about 8 days time, stay alert up there Jenny....

im glad i had a few tree's by me pruned......................................................

well Tropics wise..we should have a good idea whats going on late next week by this coming Monday huh

good morning everyone!

Rinse and repeat. Hot, sticky, yucky!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:good morning everyone!

Rinse and repeat.  Hot, sticky, yucky!

morning Billsfan yes VERY humid and hot up here too but..summer is knocking at the door lol

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Miami FL
1101 AM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018

AMZ610-FLZ063-066-067-069-070-GMZ656-657-676-071715-
Lake Okeechobee-Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-
Inland Collier-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Including the cities of Palmdale, Moore Haven, Clewiston,
LaBelle, Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, Pahokee, South Bay,
Belle Glade, Wellington, Lion Country Safari,
South County Regional Park, Naples, and Immokalee
1101 AM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.NOW...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
through the midday hours across Glades, Hendry and Collier
Counties, as well as Lake Okeechobee. This activity is likely to
spread to Palm Beach and Broward Counties through the early
afternoon hours. Environmental conditions are such that the
strongest storms that develop may produce gusty winds and small
hail. Frequent lightning is also expected with the thunderstorms.

$$

Hagen

just FYI but the FV3p GFS Test model brings next weeks storm into my area and big bend....

yeah..next Thursday could get quite interesting wind wise.im only 4-5 miles from coastline whew..

ok so still 6 1/2 days left to see what plays out with this supposed tropical system coming next week,well regardless, it IS Hurricane season huh, we already should have stocked up on supplies and prep plans etc huh....have YOU already done so?

StAugustineFL wrote:Looking at the image I posted last, the outflow boundary moving south in the GOM is pretty cool.  I love seeing stuff like that.  Not sure if the image is static or dynamic though.  If dynamic someone could check in 8 hours from now and wonder what the heck I'm talking about, lol.

What are you talking about, Aug?

LargoFL wrote:ok so still 6 1/2 days left to see what plays out with this supposed tropical system coming next week,well regardless, it IS Hurricane season huh, we already should have stocked up on supplies and prep plans etc huh....have YOU already done so?

Here is my 2 cents worth on the potential storm (probably worth less). I am not saying it isn't gonna happen, but Bastardi has mentioned it in his daily update for several days in a row now, including todays update. He hasn't ruled it out 100%, but he basically calls the US model outputs bogus, and says IF a storm does form in the SW Carib in the next couple weeks it will be going to Mexico, not the US. He isn't the best at tropical forecasting in my opinion, but if he isn't hyping the heck out of it (like he does most storms), I for one feel it will be a ghost storm or, at most, somebody else's storm to deal with. You are right though Largo, it is hurricane season and all should be stocked up and prepared in case one heads this way.

well by my area, no rain today and although its really warm, its actually a very nice day here, maybe the rains went south??

I see in some other blogs..some are saying the GFS is calling for a Cat-2 hurricane in the gulf next week,iF this verifies, folks around Florida's gulf coast should be a lil More alert and see what happens huh

LargoFL wrote:

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:good morning everyone!

Rinse and repeat.  Hot, sticky, yucky!

morning Billsfan yes VERY humid and hot up here too but..summer is knocking at the door lol

LOL Largo... Summer has kicked the door down! We've had heat indices over 100 every day this week.

getting some rain. We were under a TS warning, but the worst was north of me.

Just got 1.5 inches in an hour. I got soaked as I had to stop by Publix.
Still raining lightly and down to 71 degrees!!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Just got 1.5 inches in an hour.  I got soaked as I had to stop by Publix.  
Still raining lightly and down to 71 degrees!!

well that rain should be a big help maybe in knocking down the temps for awhile...not a drop here by me. full sunshine whew.

JRnOldsmar wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:Looking at the image I posted last, the outflow boundary moving south in the GOM is pretty cool.  I love seeing stuff like that.  Not sure if the image is static or dynamic though.  If dynamic someone could check in 8 hours from now and wonder what the heck I'm talking about, lol.

What are you talking about, Aug?

Haha Dynamic loop it was!

My lawn service better get their keesters over here soon otherwise they'll need a bush hog to cut through the lawn and will be laying down a hay field afterwards. I always mowed my own lawn but the ol 22" Toro self-propelled push mower died on me a couple of years ago. Sorta one of those deals if one wants to pay a small sum of $$ for a service to mow, edge, trim, blow or DIYS and cut into precious weekend hours.

Aug- again thanks for the radar app you suggested I get alerts from other sites, but theirs is pretty neat. And loud!

this was posted in doc's blog....WD we better watch this one for any wobbles etc next week,,

ok we'll just have to wait this out, each run has a different ending...........................

so models suggest something tropical in the gulf around the 14th or so. now for myself that puts it inside the 7 day window, and its there at this point ,that I myself would start preparing in earnest so I myself would not be caught off guard..so we still have some days to watch and see..how srong it will become and..finally where it will come ashore..and myself i always wait to see how BIG in size it becomes and how far from center any strong bad winds would be...but..this is just myself..each person does it differently huh....i used to be..one who would wait a day in advance of landfall before i prepared..uh uh..no more lol

so lets wait till sun/mon before we think we'll know better where its going or IF it will be going ashore somewhere..who know..possibly sunday its headed to Texas huh..prepare and wait this out....good night folks, tomorrow's another day huh..stay alert and safe out there ok/

Thanks Largo. Something to watch!

NWS Miami......426 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...
...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop over
the peninsula this afternoon, esepcailly over the interior. The
primary threats are lightning, small hail, and gusty winds.

Hail: Small hail may be possible with any stronger storms today,
especially over the northern interior, up by Lake Okeechobee.

Wind: Thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of producing wind
gusts up to 55 mph. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as
well with some of the stronger storms near the Lake Okeechobee
region.

Waterspout: Isolated waterspouts will be possible over Lake
Okeechobee today and the near shore Atlantic waters, in association
with any thunderstorm activity.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the
afternoons. The focus will be toward the interior Friday into early
next week. The primary threat will be lightning, although gusty winds
and locally heavy rain are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and waterspouts to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!!!!...well just walked the dogs and its warm outside,about 74 already going up into the high 80's again...it looks like another day like yesterday,a few of those afternoon storms could get somewhat strong in the afternoon..stay alert and drive carefully if driving thru one of them........well Blogs Coffee-Tea-Cocoa will be ready when you get here enjoy..grab a cup and relax a few before going off to work ok..............have a wonderful day everyone.

Morning All,
Agree Very Hot and humid around these parts.
Did get .09 in the bucket early last evening.
Had a real good light show coming to work again today. As for storm next week. it has been on the GFS
model for a couple of days. I think the GFS did an ok job for the last storm. We shall see I'm not ready to commit to it yet.
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Agree Very Hot and humid around these parts.
Did get .09 in the bucket early last evening.
Had a real good light show coming to work again today. As for storm next week. it has been on the GFS
model for a couple of days. I think the GFS did an ok job for the last storm. We shall see I'm not ready to commit to it yet.
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills

ok john, you have a good day as well...yes around 4am as i walked the dogs i could see a faint light show way north of me out in the gulf too.must have been alot of lightning up your way huh