CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

Thanks San!

NWS TAMPA...458 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening with the highest chances across the southern half of
the area. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and frequent
deadly lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Hubbard

NWS MIAMI...407 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN SW FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Morning Atlantic storms will transition to afternoon
storms focusing along the interior and Gulf coast as the day goes on.
The primary hazards will be frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and
gusty winds.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible over the coastal and
lake waters today.

Wind: A few storms could produce wind gusts up to 50 mph this
afternoon especially where the sea breezes collide over Southwest
Florida.

Temperatures: Portions of South Florida will see heat index values
reach into the mid 100s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast with the highest coverage
across the western interior and Gulf coast each afternoon. The main
threat with any activity is lightning.

An increasing pressure gradient by the weekend will lead to higher
winds and building seas in the Atlantic and Gulf waters. The elevated
risk of Rip Currents along the Atlantic beaches is possible through
most of the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and waterspouts to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

RAG

good Thursday Morning Folks!!..well no rain etc for my area last night and NWS thinks todays rain may..be south of I-4..so good luck to those who live there, next day or so chances favor down there..well have a great day everyone..weekend is fast approaching!!

Good morning all. I knew mentioning the end of the rainy season and lack of rain the last 2 weeks would make it rain at my place. I had a brief downpour from a late evening pop up storm that dropped a quick 0.35". We also had a "T-Storm" at 4 AM this morning from the storms that moved north out of the Pinellas/Hillsborough area last night, but no additional rain in my gauge. It was unusual to see the storms hold on overnight like that, but the energy was available. Looks like rain chances are lower from here on through the weekend. Early next week it looks like a dissipating front will kick our rain chances a little higher Monday and Tuesday, then high pressure builds back in and dries us out and cools our morning lows all the way down to 70!! Woohoo, it is gonna feel like FALL. LOL

Well this patch of drier weather we have been having seems to be slowly making a difference for drying out the flooding that has been occurring in North Central FL. However, groundwater is still extremely high in the area, making it highly vulnerable to flooding if a storm were to hit. The Suwannee River Water Management District released this statement this week:

September 26, 2018 7:30 AM
Drier Weather Impacting Water Levels

Drier weather in the past two weeks is beginning to affect water levels in the Floridan Aquifer in many areas of the District. As of September 23rd, 34% of the Floridan Aquifer wells surveyed had water levels above the 90th percentile, compared to 46% one week ago.

Despite this, water levels in Floridan Aquifer wells in Taylor, Levy, Bradford, and Alachua counties remain above the 90th percentile. The water level reported at the Floridan Aquifer well on the campus of the University of Florida is still near the maximum for the period of record (1976 – 2018).

Good morning! For the first time in weeks, we have some decent cloud cover, not complete, but quite a bit. Winds are supposed to be 20-25 MPH this weekend. Not much rain in forecast.

waterdipper wrote:Good morning all. I knew mentioning the end of the rainy season and lack of rain the last 2 weeks would make it rain at my place. I had a brief downpour from a late evening pop up storm that dropped a quick 0.35". We also had a "T-Storm" at 4 AM this morning from the storms that moved north out of the Pinellas/Hillsborough area last night, but no additional rain in my gauge. It was unusual to see the storms hold on overnight like that, but the energy was available. Looks like rain chances are lower from here on through the weekend. Early next week it looks like a dissipating front will kick our rain chances a little higher Monday and Tuesday, then high pressure builds back in and dries us out and cools our morning lows all the way down to 70!! Woohoo, it is gonna feel like FALL. LOL

its good you got some rain there WD..yes i heard the booms of thunder early morning also..sure was strange alright.

WD..in walking in my local park..i do notice the rainfall that pooled in the low lying grass area's from 3-4 days ago, is still there..i guess the underground water levels must be real high here by me also, and getting a strong Hurricane stalling out over us would be terrible flooding wise huh..its great that so far no Tropical system is looking to come here.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning!   For the first time in weeks, we have some decent cloud cover, not complete, but quite a bit.  Winds are supposed to be 20-25 MPH this weekend.  Not much rain in forecast.

yeah you have a 27 to 30% chances down there, i hope you do get some rain Billsfan

Lets just keep a good eye on this on again-off again-on again TS KIRK.......................

well latest GFS DOES gave a front making all the way down Florida 10/9 or so......

well sooner or later a cold front will have to make it here and cool things down some huh.

OK folks....it seems the GFS model see's something Tropical hitting SF around the 13th OCT....

Gee i sure hope gome can swim..this has been going on about 3-4 days straight there....

It would be nice if some overcast cloud cover would magically appear overhead here lol,man this sunshine is HOT lol

well something woke me up real early this morning, mother Nature is snickering lol..

Good Friday Morning and TGIF!!!!!!!!!!!........no rain by me yesterday and sure was hot huh..guess the same for today, I think i'll clean out the gutters again,leaves are starting to fall here pretty good now...have a great day everyone

Good morning all! Thanks for the updates Largo.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning all!    Thanks for the updates  Largo.  

ok billsfan will do..keep in touch with your local NWS discussions ok..models are hinting at something coming close..too early yet to verify anything but....

I see that Largo! Unfortunately the GFS has been pretty good this year.

and yet Another day of rain and storms over the same area's up there,hope no flooding...

stay safe up there gome ok.............Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
552 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
552 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of very heavy rain, possibly leading to some localized
nuisance flooding, can be expected with the some of the heavier
showers or thunderstorms through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of very heavy rain, possibly leading to some localized
nuisance flooding, can be expected with the some of the heavier
showers or thunderstorms through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Thursday.

$$

Another scorcher for us and no rain in sight! Boo! Everyone’s lawns are starting to suffer.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Another scorcher for us and no rain in sight!  Boo!   Everyone’s lawns are starting to suffer.  

yes this year we didnt get the rains from passing systems for some reason

IMPORTANT....ANYONE HERE USE FACEBOOK???...............NEW YORK (AP) — Facebook says it recently discovered a security breach affecting nearly 50 million user accounts.

Afternoon everyone.... please please please let November come fast!!

I'm so jealous of the folks in the upper 50% of the country - they had such nice overnight lows.

LargoFL wrote:IMPORTANT....ANYONE HERE USE FACEBOOK???...............NEW YORK (AP) — Facebook says it recently discovered a security breach affecting nearly 50 million user accounts.

I read about that Largo! I can't believe they left open that door for hackers!!

I can't verify the legitimacy of this vid, but just saw it on twitter....

Hmmm..does that video show up? It shows up when I look at the preview before posting, but I don't see it in the actual post now.

Good afternoon and TGIF.  Had a "storm" (1 clap of distant thunder) pulse/wane overhead as the seabreeze boundary moved through.  My gauge has .56".  I'll take it.  Sunny here now but hear distant thunder well to my south.  2nd thunderstorm in an hour!

I don't see it san.

Dangit..... okay, here is the link instead - it is video of a tsunami in Indonesia today.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1045761795070275584

Not the best looking seabreeze boundaries but evident nonetheless.

"Good" footage watching it come in off the waters.  A terrifying experience.  I don't know what's worst - tsunami, strong hurricane, tornado, wild fire, flood, earthquake, volcano, etc...

Wow Aug! That's a tough list.

NWS TAMPA...517 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly over
Southwest Florida. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rains,
and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Wynn

Good Saturday Morning folks!!..well it looks like i got a shower of rain late last night,things are sort of wet outside..but it looks like another dry day ahead for my area and yeah HOT once again but sooner or later our cold fronts will break thru and make it to us.."hopefully soon" lol..have a wonderful day everyone!!

folks models are playing some hints at a tropical something hitting Florida..stay tuned..

Morning.  Yeah Largo - almost time for those fronts.  Meanwhile here's the forecast snowfall totals for the US over the next 10 days.  A sign the seasons are a changing (for some).

If the GFS is right, looks like high pressure is going to be anchored over the mid-Atlantic/Tennessee Valley area the next 10 days.  Just my cheesy opinion with drawing on the below map.

yeah that HIGH was in the ATL blocking us from tropical systems..if it goes inland..oh oh

well right now we cant believe any or all of the models..they are just hinting right now..we have a week to watch and wait and see if anything IS going to affect us...but it seems Oct-6-9 is our maybe trouble time...season is still here

ok here is the LOW way down below us that we need to watch carefully this week..........