FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND THE HOLIDAY SEASON WEATHER

yeah and a wind maker also once again........................................

yeah Euro is a day slower again..still days away yet, lets see wednesday...

most of the models bring the storm front by Friday, we'll see how this plays out..

Good Monday morning. Looks like you all got the brunt of the storm this time. Not really any bad weather here, just some off and on rain that totaled up to 1.1" for the front passing. It continued to rain lightly off and on last night, but now it is just cloudy and cool. Temps look to hold steady in the low 50's through the day today then we will be in the 30's the next two nights before the temps start to moderate to seasonal norms by the end of the week before our next frontal passage.

waterdipper wrote:Good Monday morning. Looks like you all got the brunt of the storm this time. Not really any bad weather here, just some off and on rain that totaled up to 1.1" for the front passing. It continued to rain lightly off and on last night, but now it is just cloudy and cool. Temps look to hold steady in the low 50's through the day today then we will be in the 30's the next two nights before the temps start to moderate to seasonal norms by the end of the week before our next frontal passage.

Morning WD..glad you made it thru ok...i notice this week temps might be in the freezing zone up by you..stay warm ok

one of the news photo's of the new port richey Tornado damage............

That nader was near san's hood. Too close for comfort although at least it was a weak EF0 for the most part like the majority of Florida naders.

COLD here today. It didn't get out of the 40's with full cloud cover and a steady breeze. Not much improvement in temps until Thursday. Will have to monitor if temps trend lower for tomorrow night. Current forecast is 36.

Good Tuesday Morning folks!! kinda Nippy outside here. temps around 47 degree's with still a slight breeze..i do notice WD and Aug's area's have frost warnings..none here by my area yet..but tonight Maybe..we'll see how this cold plays out..stay warm and have a great day everyone

well still looks like Friday os going to be a very wet and possibly stormy day....

say John...did the Frost make it down to your area overnight?...if not..NWS Tampa is mentioning Tonight it might for the Inland area's..i havent covered any of my tropicals and bushes etc yet

(clip) NWS Tampa discussion........Thursday night through Saturday we will be watching an impressive
upper-level low and associated surface features as it moves through
the lower Mississippi Valley. Models all agree that a deep trough
will be in the northern Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week, but
timing and upper-low placement differs. This could have significant
impacts on our weather. The GFS and Canadian are the fastest and
have most of the heavy showers and thunderstorms occurring during
Friday with a cold front through the area by Friday evening. The
ECMWF is slower, and much of the weather occurs Friday night, some
12 hours later. While the timing of the event is in question,
confidence is fairly high that we will see another potential severe
event between Friday and early Saturday as upper-level heights fall
and shear increases.

ok gutters will be cleaned out wednesday etc could be another heavy rain event huh

MY Prayers for these servicemen and their Families........................................The five Marines missing off the coast of Japan for nearly a week following an aviation mishap have been declared dead by the U.S. Marine Corps.

The Marines were aboard a KC-130 refueling aircraft that may have been attempting to refuel in midair an F/A-18 fighter jet on Wednesday.

"The Marine Corps has pronounced the five remaining Marines involved in the F/A-18 and KC-130 aviation mishap deceased," according to a statement from the III Marine Expeditionary Force based in Japan. "The change in status comes at the conclusion of search and rescue operations."

dress warm folks.................................................................

well its after 10am and they say..its about 51 here by me..man it sure dont Feel 51 outside..more like 41 or lower LOL,,guess its windchill

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
328 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

...Significant frost expected tonight...

.Clear skies and light winds will allow for optimal radiational
cooling tonight. Temperatures are expected to settle between 32
and 36 degrees for several hours.

FLZ043-139-239-242-248-121300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FR.Y.0001.181212T0600Z-181212T1300Z/
Sumter-Coastal Levy-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
Including the cities of Wildwood, Lake Panasoffkee, Bushnell,
The Villages, Cedar Key, Yankeetown, Chiefland, Bronson,
Williston, Inverness, Brooksville, and Spring Hill
328 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Frost Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM EST
Wednesday.

* TEMPERATURE...32 to 36 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Frost will damage or kill sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
303 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

FLZ020>023-030-031-GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-112100-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FZ.W.0012.181212T0700Z-181212T1300Z/
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Union-Bradford-Coffee-Jeff Davis-
Bacon-Appling-Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Echols-Clinch-
Charlton-
Including the cities of Jasper, Jennings, West Lake, Belmont,
White Springs, Houston, Live Oak, McAlpin, Newburn,
Suwannee Springs, Columbia, Lake City, Oleno State Park, Lulu,
Watertown, Macclenny, Olustee, Lake Butler, Starke, New River,
Douglas, Hazlehurst, Alma, New Lacy, Baxley, Pine Grove,
Plant Hatch, Doctortown, Gardi, Jesup, Axson, Pearson,
Willacoochee, Needham, Waycross, Blackshear, Atkinson, Hickox,
Hortense, Nahunta, Raybon, Waynesville, Hoboken, Needmore,
Statenville, Homerville, Folkston, St. George, Winokur, Homeland,
Race Pond, and Stephen Foster State Park
303 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Freeze
Warning, which is in effect from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows around 30.

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures could kill sensitive
vegetation and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
expected for at least 2 hours. Appropriate action should be
taken to ensure tender vegetation and outdoor pets have adequate
protection from the cold temperatures. Young children, the
elderly and the homeless are especially vulnerable to the cold.
Take measures to protect them.

&&

$$

Remember to cover those outside exposed pipes

Good afternoon. Thanks for the updates Largo. Forecast low of 33 now but I'm not going to cover anything. A few of my perennials may lose their top growth but that happens every year when it gets chilly regardless of whether I cover plants or not. My potted crotons are the most delicate. I may just let them go and buy new in the spring.

Next storm may contain a pretty good severe threat but still up in the air. Latest from the SPC.

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that a surface frontal wave migrating
inland off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico could be accompanied by
forcing for ascent and shear supportive of organized severe
thunderstorm potential on Friday. This currently seems most likely
to impact portions of northern Florida, from the Big Bend into the
Gainesville/Jacksonville areas (and perhaps as far south as the
Interstate 4 corridor of the central Peninsula), into southern
Georgia. Guidance indicates that Gulf boundary layer modification
may allow for an influx of mid 60s+ F surface dewpoints across this
region during the day, however this may still only result in very
weak destabilization. Given, also, sizable spread still evident
among the models, and within their respective ensemble output,
concerning the evolution and progression of the deep lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone initially approaching the lower Mississippi
Valley at 12Z Friday, the extent of any severe weather potential
remains unclear.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  Thanks for the updates Largo.  Forecast low of 33 now but I'm not going to cover anything.  A few of my perennials may lose their top growth but that happens every year when it gets chilly regardless of whether I cover plants or not.  My potted crotons are the most delicate.  I may just let them go and buy new in the spring.

Next storm may contain a pretty good severe threat but still up in the air.  Latest from the SPC.

...DISCUSSION...
  Medium-range models suggest that a surface frontal wave migrating
  inland off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico could be accompanied by
  forcing for ascent and shear supportive of organized severe
  thunderstorm potential on Friday.  This currently seems most likely
  to impact portions of northern Florida, from the Big Bend into the
  Gainesville/Jacksonville areas (and perhaps as far south as the
  Interstate 4 corridor of the central Peninsula), into southern
  Georgia.  Guidance indicates that Gulf boundary layer modification
  may allow for an influx of mid 60s+ F surface dewpoints across this
  region during the day, however this may still only result in very
  weak destabilization.  Given, also, sizable spread still evident
  among the models, and within their respective ensemble output,
  concerning the evolution and progression of the deep lower/mid
  tropospheric cyclone initially approaching the lower Mississippi
  Valley at 12Z Friday, the extent of any severe weather potential
  remains unclear.

ok Aug thanks..whew looks like you northern folks bear the brubt of this coming Friday storm but im watching it closely here also..looks like the last storm we had huh.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
315 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

FLZ020>025-030>032-035>037-GAZ132>136-149>153-162>165-121300-
/O.CON.KJAX.FZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-181212T1300Z/
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-
Appling-Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Echols-
Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-
Including the cities of Jasper, Jennings, West Lake, Belmont,
White Springs, Houston, Live Oak, McAlpin, Newburn,
Suwannee Springs, Columbia, Lake City, Oleno State Park, Lulu,
Watertown, Macclenny, Olustee, Ratliff, Hilliard, Kings Ferry,
Bryceville, Normandy, Ortega, Riverside, San Marco, Lake Butler,
Starke, New River, Doctors Inlet, Lakeside, Bellair, Middleburg,
Orange Park, Trenton, Gainesville, Gainesville Airport,
Newnans Lake, Bostwick, Carraway, Palatka, Douglas, Hazlehurst,
Alma, New Lacy, Baxley, Pine Grove, Plant Hatch, Doctortown,
Gardi, Jesup, Axson, Pearson, Willacoochee, Needham, Waycross,
Blackshear, Atkinson, Hickox, Hortense, Nahunta, Raybon,
Waynesville, Hoboken, Thalmann, Needmore, Statenville,
Homerville, Folkston, St. George, Winokur, Homeland, Race Pond,
Stephen Foster State Park, Colesburg, Tarboro, Waverly,
and Woodbine
315 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...around 30.

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures could kill sensitive
vegetation and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
expected for at least 2 hours. Appropriate action should be
taken to ensure tender vegetation and outdoor pets have adequate
protection from the cold temperatures. Young children, the
elderly and the homeless are especially vulnerable to the cold.
Take measures to protect them.

&&

$$

whew much colder feeling here this morning..temps around 40-41 by me but..inland and north of me frost and freeze warnings all over the place whew...well a slight warm up begins once the sun comes out..by tomorrow it will be back in the 70's daytime..then the BOOM..another strong front comes..im doing the gutters etc and tasking in things that can blow around outside etc..we gotta LOVE florida in winter..the fronts and warm ups never let a person get used to the cold..blood does'nt thicken etc..well anyway..have a wonderful day everyone!!

(Clipped) NWS Tampa discussion for the coming storm front..........................By Thursday, a vigorous upper-level trough and closed low will be
pushing eastward across Texas. Southeasterly winds will begin to
increase, especially over the Gulf waters as the pressure gradient
tightens between the departing ridge of high pressure and the
approaching Gulf coast system. Any shower activity should be
confined mainly to the eastern half of the state, but we can`t rule
out a few showers in our interior counties. Even with more cloud
cover, temperatures will rebound into the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night - Tuesday)...
Once again we will be dealing with a potent system that models just
can`t seem to come to terms with. The Canadian and GFS are faster
bringing the main area of showers and thunderstorms to our coastline
late Thursday night or early Friday. The ECMWF and NAM are slower,
with the main impacts occurring Friday into Friday night. The GFS is
trending slower, so we while the forecast will still show showers
and storms beginning Thursday night, it will also show rain chances
lingering all the way into part of Saturday.

As far as severe threat goes, it appears to be most likely near and
north of the I-4 corridor. Keep in mind that we are still 2+ days
out, so things will change.

Based on just the GFS: The 925MB southerly jet is approaching the
Nature coast very early Friday morning, but the best low-level jet
dynamics appear to be lifting north of our area around 7 AM Friday,
with speeds up to 60 knots.

Based on just the ECMWF: A 925MB southerly jet of 50 to 55
knots approaches the Nature Coast around 1 PM Friday. So for this
model, that would be the most likely onset of the heavier
thunderstorms.

While we do think a marginal to slight severe weather risk will
materialize, it`s really too early to pinpoint where and exactly
when it will occur due to the complex nature of this large
storm system.

JR-St Pete-San.........remember where the worst of the last storm front hit?..US...well guess what........"As far as severe threat goes, it appears to be most likely near and
north of the I-4 corridor. Keep in mind that we are still 2+ days
out, so things will change."

tomorrow the NWS should have a better idea of what to expect as things model wise come together

on the GFS model run, it may be we need to watch strong winds with this next front Fri...hope no more tornado's

LargoFL wrote:JR-St Pete-San.........remember where the worst of the last storm front hit?..US...well guess what........"As far as severe threat goes, it appears to be most likely near and
north of the I-4 corridor. Keep in mind that we are still 2+ days
out, so things will change."

Thanks, Largo. I'm keeping an eye out for it. The last couple of storms have bulls-eye'd on us, it seems. Remember that storm track a while back that went thru Clwtr, Oldsmar, Northdale, and Z-hills? Then NPR/San last week? We might get a trifecta of early winter storms!! I'll see if I can get the gutters cleaned out this time around.

JRnOldsmar wrote:

LargoFL wrote:JR-St Pete-San.........remember where the worst of the last storm front hit?..US...well guess what........"As far as severe threat goes, it appears to be most likely near and
north of the I-4 corridor. Keep in mind that we are still 2+ days
out, so things will change."

Thanks, Largo.  I'm keeping an eye out for it.  The last couple of storms have bulls-eye'd on us, it seems.  Remember that storm track a while back that went thru Clwtr, Oldsmar, Northdale, and Z-hills?  Then NPR/San last week?  We might get a trifecta of early winter storms!!  I'll see if I can get the gutters cleaned out this time around.  

yeah JR you may be right about tri-fecta..and this third LOW will be in the gulf..and coming into..our area from the gulf around the 23rd..and gulf LOWS i always watch for severe stuff when they come ashore here.

well im waving trouble with this Blog, most of the time its blank and i cant get OUR blog here..BBL maybe

ok later...temps look to be a lil warmer tonight around my area.............

NWS Melbourne...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Ocean conditions will produce a moderate risk of rip currents at
the beaches of east central Florida. Always swim within sight of a
lifeguard and do not swim alone.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Small craft should exercise caution in the nearshore waters south
of Sebastian Inlet and in all offshore waters through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Poor to hazardous marine conditions will return late Thursday and
into Saturday with the approach and passage of another low
pressure system across the Florida peninsula.

Another strong cold front is forecast to approach the area Friday
and cross the region Friday night. Ahead of the front, numerous
showers and strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are
expected. Some of the strongest storms may produce damaging winds,
small hail, and a low threat for tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

ok so we got one more day before the stormy rainy weather begins once again..my gutters cleaned out again but im waiting for tomorrow to take things in that could blow around out there..im seeing warnings of 40-50 mph winds from the system thats now coming into and thru Texas to the gulf then Here about Friday they say..hopefully no tornado's here again huh

yes im taking in things outside that could blow around..winds could be stronger huh..

Good afternoon. I've nothing to take in that can blow around unless 80mph winds come then my BBQ grill of patio furniture may tip over. I just move them up against the house inside the screen enclosure if there's a high wind threat. Patio table gets turned upside down with chairs intertwined. The enclosure is pretty well protected so hard to get a good wind in there unless it's a

Looking forward to the warmer temps for a couple of days before it cools again. Next cool down looks more mild than the past couple.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  I've nothing to take in that can blow around unless 80mph winds come then my BBQ grill of patio furniture may tip over.  I just move them up against the house  inside the screen enclosure if there's a high wind threat.    Patio table gets turned upside down with chairs intertwined.  The enclosure is pretty well protected so hard to get a good wind in there unless it's a  

Looking forward to the warmer temps for a couple of days before it cools again.  Next cool down looks more mild than the past couple.

ok good luck up there AUG..NWS up there is saying thru this coming storm you folks could..get..2-4 inches of more rain..so a flood watch will be up..tomorrow's NWS Discussion could..get interesting

Good Thursday Morning folks!! tomorrow will be a stormy day again for most of us..please heeed any Local warnings for your area's and be safe ok...well today will be mid 70's for my area..ahhhh warmth once again LOL...have a great day everyone.

NWS Tampa...444 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
On Friday and Saturday, thunderstorms will be possible as a cold
front moves through the region. Some thunderstorms could be
strong to severe. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing damaging winds gusts, locally heavy rains, and
occasional lightning strikes. If threatening weather approaches
your location, move indoors immediately.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots will create hazardous boating conditions
for small craft operators on Friday and Saturday. Mariners are
advised to check the latest forecast before making any end of week
or weekend trips.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Strong and gusty onshore winds and building seas will support
dangerous rip currents at all beaches on Friday and Saturday.
Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for waterspout development
on Friday as a cold front moves through the area. Mariners should
be on the lookout for waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Wynn

Gome....stay alert up there......................................Central Gulf Coast...
Showers/scattered thunderstorms are occurring early this morning
from the western Gulf of Mexico northeastward into western LA.
Moisture-rich maritime air will largely remain offshore with the
strongest storms similarly remaining offshore over the open waters
of the Gulf of Mexico. However, warm/moist advection ahead of the
upstream shortwave trough will allow for some northward flux toward
inland areas later today, such that some strong/severe-storm risk
from near-surface-based storms could develop into coastal areas of
southeast LA and southern MS/AL toward the FL Peninsula this
afternoon through tonight.

headline on weather baynews9...............Severe weather, possible tornadoes, loom for Tampa Bay after another warm day
Forecasters predict severe weather will arrive Friday between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m.

Thu Dec 13 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of Florida and southeast Georgia,
including the following areas, in Florida, Alachua, Baker,
Bradford, Clay, Coastal Duval, Coastal Nassau, Columbia,
Gilchrist, Hamilton, Inland Duval, Inland Nassau, Suwannee,
and Union. In southeast Georgia, Appling, Atkinson, Bacon,
Brantley, Charlton, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn,
Coffee, Echols, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn, Jeff Davis,
Pierce, Ware, and Wayne.

* From late tonight through late Friday night

* Widespread rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected late tonight
through Friday night with localized amounts of 3 to 4 inches
possible. Flooding is possible with some of the heavier amounts
given that soils are primed for runoff due to recent heavy
rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

people stay extra alert tomorrow(fri)..................Otherwise, severe weather potential appears a little more certain
across central and northern Florida. Whether this risk maximizes
early in the day Friday, or later, during the afternoon and evening,
appears the primary uncertainty, due to the spread concerning the
progressiveness of the mid-level low.

Inland boundary layer destabilization may remain modest to weak
(including CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg), but in the presence of
strengthening wind fields and shear, this is expected to be
sufficient to contribute to severe weather potential with organized
convection spreading inland off the Gulf of Mexico. This probably
will coincide with the inland progression of the secondary surface
frontal wave, beneath the leading edge of the difluent, cyclonic
mid/upper flow. Convection could include a broken line or two, as
well as discrete supercells. Damaging wind gusts may be the primary
hazard, but low-level hodographs could become large enough to
support a risk for tornadoes as well.

As the frontal wave/low develops northeastward into the Carolinas,
it appears possible that boundary layer destabilization may become
supportive of a risk for severe storms across the coastal plain.
However, the extent of this threat remains at least a bit unclear at
the present time.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Kerr.. 12/13/2018

Wow. Be safe friends.
Thanks Largo.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Wow.  Be safe friends.  
Thanks Largo.

Thanks Billsfan!! stormy day and night ahead it seems up here..glad you posted..missed ya here for sure,,,have a great weekend ok!!